Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens: “C’mon Orioles, Do Something!”

[waroriole]

57 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Clemens?  Of course he isn’t right.  It’s still January. If it was first day of the spring season it would be different. But it’s not and judging today would be foolish. You know that. 
 

You want him to pick up the phone and give Holliday to the Whitesox?  I don’t think so. 
 

 

Why do people keep acting like Cease is the only option. We are in the middle of free agency. 

[wildcard]

34 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It’s just painfully obvious that they’re again banking on young players to step up and produce. 

They’re banking on a good to great season from Adley. Hopefully producing WAR at a 2022 rate. 

They’re banking on Gunnar putting up as much WAR as last year, perhaps even more. 

They're banking on Holliday coming up and producing at some point.  

They’re banking on Bradish repeating.

They’re banking on G-Rod looking more like the guy in the second half of 2023 than he was in the first half.  

They’re banking on Means coming back and upgrading a rotation spot.

The only thing they HAD to do this offseason is find a closer to hold that down for a year while Bautista rehabs.

That’s it.  IMO, that’s their plan…continued progress from young players and getting veterans back from rehab.  

 

Now you got it.   But Elias does have work to do.  He has to make more room and  trade some guys that don't fit.  Probably for prospects.   Urias, Stowers,  maybe even Norby.   He has to trade a reliever or two that are out of options.

Then after ST we see if Cowser,  Kjerstad or Mayo did enough to trade O'Hearn.

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

And it's possible that we are the side that is being unreasonable.

Last trade deadline did not fill me with confidence.

 

That's possible.  Though in the case of Cease reports indicate the WS are asking for the moon.   If they were being reasonable then you'd think someone,  if not the Os, would have grabbed him already.   Time will tell. 

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

That's possible.  Though in the case of Cease reports indicate the WS are asking for the moon.   If they were being reasonable then you'd think someone,  if not the Os, would have grabbed him already.   Time will tell. 

I would hope that he's talking to more than just the White Sox.

[Satyr3206]

Whenever someone says do something, it screams desperation.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

It’s just painfully obvious that they’re again banking on young players to step up and produce. 

They’re banking on a good to great season from Adley. Hopefully producing WAR at a 2022 rate. 

They’re banking on Gunnar putting up as much WAR as last year, perhaps even more. 

They're banking on Holliday coming up and producing at some point.  

They’re banking on Bradish repeating.

They’re banking on G-Rod looking more like the guy in the second half of 2023 than he was in the first half.  

They’re banking on Means coming back and upgrading a rotation spot.

The only thing they HAD to do this offseason is find a closer to hold that down for a year while Bautista rehabs.

That’s it.  IMO, that’s their plan…continued progress from young players and getting veterans back from rehab.  

 

Ironic verb choice considering the lack of money flowing out of the Warehouse this offseason. 

[Three Run Homer]

7 hours ago, NCRaven said:

I understand both your and Clemens' points.  I'm just saying that Elias may not see 4 years of Montgomery or anyone else that is available as a significant upgrade over the internal options that are available.  I would probably disagree with Elias, but so far, that seems to be the case.

Elias' opinion on Jordan Montgomery doesn't matter.  The only opinion that matters is John Angelos' opinion, and his opinion is that he doesn't want to sign any free agents for more than a one-year contract.   

26 out of 30 franchises in MLB have signed at least one player to a two-year or longer free agent contract either this offseason or last.  Of course the O's are one of the four.  The O's haven't signed a free agent to a multi-year contract since Alex Cobb.  Only the Pirates have gone longer without signing a free agent for two or more years.   It made sense for the O's to avoid major free agent signings when they were uncompetitive; now it makes no sense.  

Clemens' article is absolutely correct that this is not how World Series winners are built.  Even small market WS winners that were primarily built from the farm system got key contributions from veteran players making market salaries that helped push them over the top.    Right now, the only veteran players making market salaries on the O's for 2024 are McCann (who we aren't paying much) and Kimbrell.  

[Flash- bd]

The main thing I get from the article is that Elias is doing something different and that the media / world doesn't know how to react to it. 

This is basically the definition of doing something different. 

If this is were the Rays people would be talking about D.L. Hall and McDermott (and Wells, even?) very differently as potential 5th starters. I'm still a bit baffled about how dismissively Kremer is talked about in the national media. I'm not sure there's actually a good reason why John Means is consistently considered a better option / higher in the hierarchy than him.  

I'm not worried. My biggest worry is how we're going to find spots for all of our ML-ready prospects in the lineup over the course of the season. To alleviate that concern a bit I'd like to see us look for above all a Mountcastle / O'Hearn or Halls / Santander upgrade and a big time relief arm, but given their track record I suppose the latter they feel they can work out with internal solutions, and the former seems difficult to find on the trade market.

In short, I trust Elias, and really couldn't care less about the common strain of thought among the outside media. 

Edited January 19 by Flash- bd

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Three Run Homer said:

Elias' opinion on Jordan Montgomery doesn't matter.  The only opinion that matters is John Angelos' opinion, and his opinion is that he doesn't want to sign any free agents for more than a one-year contract.   

26 out of 30 franchises in MLB have signed at least one player to a two-year or longer free agent contract either this offseason or last.  Of course the O's are one of the four.  The O's haven't signed a free agent to a multi-year contract since Alex Cobb.  Only the Pirates have gone longer without signing a free agent for two or more years.   It made sense for the O's to avoid major free agent signings when they were uncompetitive; now it makes no sense.  

Clemens' article is absolutely correct that this is not how World Series winners are built.  Even small market WS winners that were primarily built from the farm system got key contributions from veteran players making market salaries that helped push them over the top.    Right now, the only veteran players making market salaries on the O's for 2024 are McCann (who we aren't paying much) and Kimbrell.  

Why do veterans need to make market salaries?  Santander, Hays, Mullins, Means, Coulombe are all veterans at this point.

[ChosenOne21]

I mean, it's a nice article. Even if he's stating the obvious, he's stating it really well and showing how the O's aren't acting like any other team in their position seemingly would.

Then he calls Means an innings eater and Kremer a reasonable fifth starter and I wonder if he's sniffing glue.

[ChosenOne21]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Why do veterans need to make market salaries?  Santander, Hays, Mullins, Means, Coulombe are all veterans at this point.

Because they generally won't play for less if they have other options? It's pretty hard to add outside talent for below market rates.

[wse120372]

I'm starting to believe that the plan is to go with a "three headed monster" of Wells, Hall, and Irvin in that 5th spot and use the remaining options of Wells and Hall when they need a fresh arm. If anything Elias makes some more Jonathan Heasley moves for depth. 

I wouldn't get to comfortable if I was Baumann or Jacob Webb.  Having 0 options left isn't ideal. 

[Pickles]

Doing something for the sake of doing something is a sure-fire way to do something stupid.

[ChosenOne21]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Doing something for the sake of doing something is a sure-fire way to do something stupid.

Elias isn't Jerry DiPoto. If he makes a move it won't be for the sake of doing something.

[Pickles]

7 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Elias isn't Jerry DiPoto. If he makes a move it won't be for the sake of doing something.

I agree.  I was responding to the premise of the article, which admittedly, I haven't read.