Once Holliday graduates, the SS depth in the system looks pretty thin

[Bemorewins]

58 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Maybe.  I want to see a dynasty built, not just a good 5 year run.   From '66 to '83, the Os were a model of consistency and great baseball.   I'd love to see that return.  Part of that success was having young guys ready to step up when others got too old,  were traded or signed elsewhere.  Now I'm far from worried about the SS situation in the minors as we are set for the next handful of years.   But to act like the farm system isn't something we should still think about or be concerned with isn't true.  It's the long term life blood of the franchise.  Your choice of Houston is a great example.  They had an awesome run that I'd love for us to replicate.  But at the same time it's looking like their window is starting to close and they don't seem to have the talent in the minors to keep it open.  If we can I want BOTH the mlb success AND a well stocked farm system to build a true dynasty, not just a good 5 year run. 

I’m not saying that the farm system is not important, I just don’t expect it to be nearly as good as it is now. It took us many years of intentional loosing to build a “super farm”. However, I am very confident that Elias/Sig will continue to find and develop talent. 

In terms of extending success beyond 5 years, part of that requires extensions (especially of superstars). 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I can’t argue with Elias approach to the draft. But I don’t think the farm is balanced at all. We are very position player rich and very pitching poor in terms of prospects (as proof look at our top 100 guys). 

However, as long as he is willing to deal from our over abundance in order to acquire impact pitching for the Big League team, I am fine with his draft strategy/approach. BPA seems to be working out quite well.

He drafted a lot of pitchers in the first ten rounds last year, unlike in previous seasons.  I’m very excited to see how that group looks in 2024.  

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, clapdiddy said:

Exactly.   It gives the really young guys plenty of time to develop.   I'm sure there are a few shortstops that will be available in the draft this year as well.

I wouldn't spend any draft capital this year on a SS, unless it was an overslot in rounds 11-20.  The draft isn't really as big as it seems.  It's really only rounds 1-4 or 5, then you can try and offer 2-3 NCAA underclassmen/High School Seniors 200K to sign.  

Any depth is going to look thin considering the superstar talent we just rolled through the system.  Leandro Arias and Luis Almeyda are pretty good depth. 

[spleen1015]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Man it's really tough to post a thread and have people just read it how they want instead of how you wrote it. 

Are you new to the internet? 

[Aristotelian]

That is just fine because between Holliday and Gunnar we have two guys who can hold the position for the next 6-7 years. Will be interesting to see if we start to restock in the next couple of drafts but I don't see any reason to be concerned about this is the short to medium term.

[Jammer7]

It will be interesting to see where we are, talent-wise, in the minors after this season. Potential subtractions of Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser, Ortiz, Norby, and maybe even McDermott, Povich and Seth Johnson. Basallo, Bradfield, Beavers, Horvath, Baumeister, and then what?

Don’t get me wrong, it’s expected as we graduate so many great young talents. I am just referring to how interesting and exciting it is to see who will be the next stars to develop into top 100 types. This is where we will begin to see just how good our system is. No more top of the first round draft picks. True development time.

Off the top of my head: Braylin Tavera, Ayden Almeida, Josh Liranzo, Leandro Arias, Luis DeLeon, Tomas Sosa, Carter Baumler, Trace Bright, Kiefer Lord, Stiven Martinez, Emilio Sanchez and Jake Cunningham all have tools to be guys who can impact the big club someday. Can Fabian, Haskin and Wagner, or even Carter Young, take a big step forward? 

Maybe Elias moves a few ML pieces for prospects as well. We have to make room for the young guys. I am not a guy who cares where we rank amongst other clubs, but it will be interesting to see where we are this time next year. If only in the context of how effective the system is working. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

It will be interesting to see where we are, talent-wise, in the minors after this season. Potential subtractions of Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser, Ortiz, Norby, and maybe even McDermott, Povich and Seth Johnson. Basallo, Bradfield, Beavers, Horvath, Baumeister, and then what?

Don’t get me wrong, it’s expected as we graduate so many great young talents. I am just referring to how interesting and exciting it is to see who will be the next stars to develop into top 100 types. This is where we will begin to see just how good our system is. No more top of the first round draft picks. True development time.

Off the top of my head: Braylin Tavera, Ayden Almeida, Josh Liranzo, Leandro Arias, Luis DeLeon, Tomas Sosa, Carter Baumler, Trace Bright, Kiefer Lord, Stiven Martinez, Emilio Sanchez and Jake Cunningham all have tools to be guys who can impact the big club someday. Can Fabian, Haskin and Wagner, or even Carter Young, take a big step forward? 

Maybe Elias moves a few ML pieces for prospects as well. We have to make room for the young guys. I am not a guy who cares where we rank amongst other clubs, but it will be interesting to see where we are this time next year. If only in the context of how effective the system is working. 

Plus our early picks in the draft.

What I would like to know is where the Os system would be ranked if you take away the top 3?  Heck, take away Kjerstad and Cowser too, since they have ML experience.  So basically, how does our 6-30 rank against other teams 1-30?

[Hallas]

If your entire farm system outplays their projections and gets promoted early, well... there's going to be a gap in the low/middle tiers of the affiliate squads where they would have been had they developed "normally."  If Holliday didn't have a rocket up his rear end with his development he'd be headed to AA or maybe AAA, with the expectation that he's coming in 2025, and he'd still be a top-50 prospect most likely.  Now we're missing a prospect of his caliber in the high minors because he decided to just skip it.

[52520Andrew]

I don't view it as a concern for the major league team for at least the next couple years.

I do think there is an argument to draft someone relatively early though just because we have shown to be extremely good at developing the position. Then that player can be used as a trade chip down the line or as potential leverage when trying to get a Gunnar/Holliday extension. I don't think we need to spend one of the 1st rounders though unless there is someone we really like.

[Jammer7]

47 minutes ago, 52520Andrew said:

I don't view it as a concern for the major league team for at least the next couple years.

I do think there is an argument to draft someone relatively early though just because we have shown to be extremely good at developing the position. Then that player can be used as a trade chip down the line or as potential leverage when trying to get a Gunnar/Holliday extension. I don't think we need to spend one of the 1st rounders though unless there is someone we really like.

Well, yes. With injuries and trades to strengthen the big club, prospects can fill holes or be trade capital, as you said. We always need fresh optionable arms for the pen, and rotation depth as well.

The only way for a small to mid-market team, like Baltimore, to maintain a playoff team is to introduce lower cost young talent to balance out the costs of the stars. As this group gets to arb 2/3 years, some may have to be moved so we can sign Adley, Gunnar, and/or Jackson to extensions. Not to mention Grayson, Bradish, Bautista and whomever else. So, we’ll need to keep producing, albeit at less of a level than we’ve have the past three years. 

 

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Plus our early picks in the draft.

What I would like to know is where the Os system would be ranked if you take away the top 3?  Heck, take away Kjerstad and Cowser too, since they have ML experience.  So basically, how does our 6-30 rank against other teams 1-30?

Yep, plus the picks, 22 and 31 in the first round, I believe. Maybe one of them can impact the O’s top 10. 

In your scenario, they would probably still be somewhere around 7-12 or so. It depends how you rank the system and how much weight you put on “top 100” types. The Orioles top 5 are top 50 types, the next current 5-7 (includes a few that just missed top 100) and are likely in the range of top 150-200.

I just took a brief dive into BA’s org rankings. Many of our draft picks in 2023 are likely underrated, especially the pitchers who did not pitch last summer. The Rangers, Brewers, Rays, Padres, Dodgers and maybe the Pirates might be ahead of us. The Guardians, Mariners, Reds and Diamondbacks have slipped a little. 

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Yep, plus the picks, 22 and 31 in the first round, I believe. Maybe one of them can impact the O’s top 10. 

In your scenario, they would probably still be somewhere around 7-12 or so. It depends how you rank the system and how much weight you put on “top 100” types. The Orioles top 5 are top 50 types, the next current 5-7 (includes a few that just missed top 100) and are likely in the range of top 150-200.

I just took a brief dive into BA’s org rankings. Many of our draft picks in 2023 are likely underrated, especially the pitchers who did not pitch last summer. The Rangers, Brewers, Rays, Padres, Dodgers and maybe the Pirates might be ahead of us. The Guardians, Mariners, Reds and Diamondbacks have slipped a little. 

I don’t think they are a top 10 system without their top 5. I think that’s a reach.

I think they could be in the 12-18 range.

[sportsfan8703]

To put it into perspective... our next SS is probably in middle school somewhere.  

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

To put it into perspective... our next SS is probably in middle school somewhere.  

Pretty good chance he's already quit school.

[Since1984]

I remember ME stating early on that it’s good to draft up the middle talent, since they can always move to a different position, defensively. Reminds me of Mouncastle drafted as a SS. I do not se that approach changing, as much.