Jackson Holliday spring training watch

[RZNJ]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Sorry, I'd rather have the extra year of Holliday than a couple weeks of Holliday in April, even in a competitive season. We're talking about a year of a guy that could be a 5 WAR player. 

It’s more than a couple of weeks.  You could hold him down until June.  If he plays great and finishes top 2 in ROY he still gains the year.   How long are you willing to keep him down?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Same deal if Coby Mayo outplays Jordan Westburg?

Now you’re playing three-dimensional chess with me.  Urias?  Mateo?  Mountcastle?  Mayo could be competing with a lot of different guys.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Just put him at the bottom until his OBP reaches .350, then move him to the top.  That probably takes 4-6 weeks.  

This is what they’ll probably do, but if they have him on the Opening Day roster they should have him leading off immediately maximize PA and his chances at ROY. 

There’s also no obvious alternative. Adley they don’t like leading off, Gunnar is a better fit later with his power and Mullins doesn’t quite have the OBP. Holliday Adley Gunnar Santander is the perfect 1-4. 

[Just Regular]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Ahem.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Jeter#Draft

 

That is a cool find, but once Sigbot controls for Hal Newhouser's "Michigan bias" Holliday still evaluates ahead.

The real issue is lack of Oriole foresight.    The Mike Bordick hour was close at hand for Cal by the time Jeter got established in the Show.

[spleen1015]

It doesn't matter when Holliday comes up if he signs an extension some time in the next few years, right?

[George Zuverink]

20 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

That may be true, but I think the odds of Holiday in the lineup on opening day and Gunnar sitting if there is a really tough lefty starting against is zero.  Unless Gunnar is hurt and can't play.  Even then, if Gunnar is hurt and can't play against a tough lefty on Opening Day, you might see Holiday at 2B and Mateo at SS....even though many on here would hate to see that.

Agree about opening day because no matter how much Jackson mashes in spring training it would take awhile to decide who was really better against tough LH.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

Elias said Westburg is established, so Mayo's not beating him out anymore than Cowser is beating Hays.

Right.  Technically, Holliday isn’t even beating anyone out.   You could say Urias will be the one most affected.

[Just Regular]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Now you’re playing three-dimensional chess with me.  Urias?  Mateo?  Mountcastle?  Mayo could be competing with a lot of different guys.  

Just for the speculating here I'm regarding Mayo/Westburg as exclusively 3B, figuring Gunnar/Holliday cover 150-ish games each up the middle.

[forphase1]

5 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

It doesn't matter when Holliday comes up if he signs an extension some time in the next few years, right?

Sure.  But counting on that happening isn't smart.   

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

It’s more than a couple of weeks.  You could hold him down until June.  If he plays great and finishes top 2 in ROY he still gains the year.   How long are you willing to keep him down?

I was referring to Sports Guy's first option, just enough to get the extra year.

[Moose Milligan]

35 minutes ago, interloper said:

First page Jeter comps is something another team's fan would come here and absolutely make fun of us about.

I'm making fun of us now.  Bunch of Orioles fans sitting around wanting a Derek Jeter, you all should be ashamed.  

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I was referring to Sports Guy's first option, just enough to get the extra year.

The first option was starting on OD.  The second option was to gain the extra year but he’d still have a good chance to be top 2 ROY and that would negate that strategy.

Option 3 was this:

3) He stays in the minors until early June. At that point, he is likely past the super 2 date and plays and gets significantly less at bats than option 2, making it harder to get into the top 2 of ROY.
 

Even with option 3 there is no guarantee he doesn’t finish top 2 in ROY but it certainly makes it less likely.   

[Sports Guy]

An OD lineup with Holliday, Gunnar, Adley, Westburg, Cowser and/or Kjerstad would be pretty damn amazing to see though. The crowd would be going nuts for that OD lineup call/red carpet run.

Edited February 9 by Sports Guy

[spleen1015]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm making fun of us now.  Bunch of Orioles fans sitting around wanting a Derek Jeter, you all should be ashamed.  

Screw that. I want 1999-2000 Garciaparra.

[HandsomeQuack]

I don't think they're going to keep him down for keeping him down's sake, but he still has fewer than 100 plate appearances in Triple-A, where he was good but not other-worldly in a SSS. I trust the org to make the smart decision. I've been on the Triple-A train for a while but I have come around on the possibility of him breaking camp with the club.

The problem is, if he starts in Norfolk he probably won't be down for long, and that leaves the team exposed for him finishing top 2 in ROY. So that tilts it toward having him on the OD roster. Plus, the PPI is not just for ROY, but for top 3 in MVP and Cy Young in any pre-arb season, so it is *possible* that Carter wins ROY but Holliday finishes 3rd in MVP in two years and nets the team a pick. Probably not likely enough to enter the equation, just something I forgot about until recently.

Credit to the union for making this interesting. Three years ago it would have been "keep him down for a month" and we would all move on.