What sort of stats do you feel we'd see from Holliday if he makes the team?

[jabba72]

I expect more than a mid 700 OPS if Holliday makes the team as a 20 year old. Whats the point of promoting him at a young age if he isnt a plus bat? 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

I expect more than a mid 700 OPS if Holliday makes the team as a 20 year old. Whats the point of promoting him at a young age if he isnt a plus bat? 

A mid 700’s bat from a 2B is a plus bat.  

[RZNJ]

Just now, Frobby said:

A mid 700’s bat from a 2B is a plus bat.  

Yep, but I expect more as well.  

[jabba72]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

A mid 700’s bat from a 2B is a plus bat.  

 Norby, Urias and Westburg are all capable of doing that at 2B. Holliday is a 1st overall pick so the expectation should be set a little higher. 

[Il BuonO]

Let’s see….350 BA, .425 OBP, 1.000 OPS

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

 Norby, Urias and Westburg are all capable of doing that at 2B. Holliday is a 1st overall pick so the expectation should be set a little higher. 

I think it needs to be understood that Holliday is a 20-year old kid with 671 professional at bats under his belt, 255 of which were in AA or higher.   The fact that he was a 1-1 pick, and now the no. 1 ranked prospect, speaks to what he’s expected to become when he’s at full maturity, not what he’s likely to do this year.  

Norby and Westburg were in their second year of college when they were Holliday’s age.  Urias was playing in Mexico.  They were all 3+ years away from playing in the majors.  Whether Holliday could outhit them right now has little to do with his prospect status.  

I’m not meaning to put limits on what Holliday might do this year, but I do think people need to manage expectations.   If he exceeds them, great.  

 

[OriolesMagic83]

57 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

You mean like they did with Gunnar last season? 

Maybe they'll even say he's a failed prospect like they did with Adley.

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think it needs to be understood that Holliday is a 20-year old kid with 671 professional at bats under his belt, 255 of which were in AA or higher.   The fact that he was a 1-1 pick, and now the no. 1 ranked prospect, speaks to what he’s expected to become when he’s at full maturity, not what he’s likely to do this year.  

Norby and Westburg were in their second year of college when they were Holliday’s age.  Urias was playing in Mexico.  They were all 3+ years away from playing in the majors.  Whether Holliday could outhit them right now has little to do with his prospect status.  

I’m not meaning to put limits on what Holliday might do this year, but I do think people need to manage expectations.   If he exceeds them, great.  

 

If he isn't expected to be the best option why would we rush him up? I would hate for us to lose a year of service time and take opportunities from a good player only to see Holliday put up a .700 OPS. If/when he is brought up I would expect better. Gunnar hit .788 when he first came up and .818 over last year in his ROY campaign at age 22. 

[OriolesMagic83]

8 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Let’s see….350 BA, .425 OBP, 1.000 OPS

Has to hit 30 bombs or I'll give him a nickname making fun of his warning track power.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If he isn't expected to be the best option why would we rush him up? I would hate for us to lose a year of service time and take opportunities from a good player only to see Holliday put up a .700 OPS. If/when he is brought up I would expect better. Gunnar hit .788 when he first came up and .818 over last year in his ROY campaign at age 22. 

Machado put up a 739 OPS in 2012.

[Aristotelian]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Machado put up a 739 OPS in 2012.

Yes, and  Manny hit only .789 in AA, while Holiday hit .928. I think Manny level is a good realistic floor but Jackson could be expected to do a bit better. Doesn't mean he will of course but it's a reasonable expectation.

[wildbillhiccup]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think it needs to be understood that Holliday is a 20-year old kid with 671 professional at bats under his belt, 255 of which were in AA or higher.   The fact that he was a 1-1 pick, and now the no. 1 ranked prospect, speaks to what he’s expected to become when he’s at full maturity, not what he’s likely to do this year.  

Norby and Westburg were in their second year of college when they were Holliday’s age.  Urias was playing in Mexico.  They were all 3+ years away from playing in the majors.  Whether Holliday could outhit them right now has little to do with his prospect status.  

I’m not meaning to put limits on what Holliday might do this year, but I do think people need to manage expectations.   If he exceeds them, great.  

 

Norby, Westburg, and Urias didn't grow up as the son of a former MLBer either. You have to think that at least a small part of his success can be atributed to all of the advantages that he had in terms of his development at a young age (i.e., developmentally he's probably more advanced than a typical 20 year old). And if you look at all of the other recent sons of MLBers who've made it to the majors (Vlad Jr, Bichette, Tatis, Witt, Jr. etc.) they all pretty much hit right out of the gate. 

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Norby, Westburg, and Urias didn't grow up as the son of a former MLBer either. You have to think that at least a small part of his success can be atributed to all of the advantages that he had in terms of his development at a young age (i.e., developmentally he's probably more advanced than a typical 20 year old). And if you look at all of the other recent sons of MLBers who've made it to the majors (Vlad Jr, Bichette, Tatis, Witt, Jr. etc.) they all pretty much hit right out of the gate. 

Witt Jr had a 722 OPS his rookie season.

[Just Regular]

Leaning into the 2B position anticipated move:

Jeff McNeil did a 270/333/378 last year

Andres Gimenez 251/314/399

Bryson Stott 280/329/419

Whit Merrifield 272/318/382

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Norby, Westburg, and Urias didn't grow up as the son of a former MLBer either. You have to think that at least a small part of his success can be atributed to all of the advantages that he had in terms of his development at a young age (i.e., developmentally he's probably more advanced than a typical 20 year old). And if you look at all of the other recent sons of MLBers who've made it to the majors (Vlad Jr, Bichette, Tatis, Witt, Jr. etc.) they all pretty much hit right out of the gate. 

Tatis had more than 1200 MiL PA under his belt, Vlad 1075.   Witt was closer to Holliday (744 PA) but he also was 18 months older and had been through the Alt site experience in the Covid year.  Bichette had 1445 PA and was a year older than Holliday.   So, they were all either more more experienced (Tatis and Vlad), older (Witt) or both (Bichette).  And while Tatis (.969 OPS) and Bichette (.930) did excel with the bat in their rookie campaigns, Vlad was good not great (.772) and Witt was just so-so (.722).   I'll be thrilled if Holliday debuts like Tatis and Bichette did, but I'll be perfectly satisfied if he starts off more like Witt.  I'm more focused on what the end product will look like than the 2024 version, so long as the 2024 version is holding his own at age 20.