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What sort of stats do you feel we'd see from Holliday if he makes the team?

Greg Pappas

By Greg Pappas
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Moose Milligan
Moose Milligan

.366/.493/.650   

Frobby
Frobby

I think it needs to be understood that Holliday is a 20-year old kid with 671 professional at bats under his belt, 255 of which were in AA or higher.   The fact that he was a 1-1 pick, and now the no.

Big Mac
Big Mac

That would be a fantastic rookie season, but the context of that season compared to Holliday's upcoming rookie season is important. Matt Holliday was 24 year old his rookie season.  Also, given t

bobmc Hangout Grand Counsel

bobmc

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What’s your address?  I’ll send some antidepressants, just in case.  

@RZNJ gets out and about when the weather turns a bit warmer and ingests those fumes from the NJ Turnpike and his brain goes to mush.  😇

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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Posted
1 minute ago, bobmc said:

@RZNJgets out and about when the weather turns a bit warmer and ingests those fumes from the NJ Turnpike and his brain goes to mush.  😇

Shouldn't you be sitting down and enjoying the Early Bird special right about now?     Turnpike,  Parkway, oil refineries.   I got it all.  Beautiful day today.   Still some dirty snow mounds around.  We have a little bit of everything in "The Garden State".   

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jabba72 Veteran All-Star

jabba72

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1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

If he isn't expected to be the best option why would we rush him up? I would hate for us to lose a year of service time and take opportunities from a player only to see Holliday put up a .700 OPS. If/when he is brought up I would expect better. Gunnar hit .788 when he first came up and .818 over last year in his ROY campaign at age 22. 

This 1000X. Boras im sure wants him up this year. Is it best for the team?

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Just now, jabba72 said:

This 1000X. Boras im sure wants him up this year. Is it best for the team?

That’s what we’re trying to find out this spring.  I said all winter long that I thought the decision would be made on the merits, but that Holliday has the burden of proof to show he’s clearly the best alternative among the folks competing for an infield spot.  That’s still what I think.  Elias said Holliday would be given every opportunity to make the club, and he’s been true to his word so far, with Holliday getting three starts in four days.   But I don’t think he’ll just be handed a spot.  He’s not off to a great start, but ST has barely started, so we’ll see.   

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jabba72 Veteran All-Star

jabba72

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s what we’re trying to find out this spring.  I said all winter long that I thought the decision would be made on the merits, but that Holliday has the burden of proof to show he’s clearly the best alternative among the folks competing for an infield spot.  That’s still what I think.  Elias said Holliday would be given every opportunity to make the club, and he’s been true to his word so far, with Holliday getting three starts in four days.   But I don’t think he’ll just be handed a spot.  He’s not off to a great start, but ST has barely started, so we’ll see.   

With Norby not getting into games yet, it kind of looks like its Jacksons job to lose. A .796 OPS in 91 PA's at Norfolk doesn't suggest he's MLB ready yet, so if he doesn't look dominant in ST I would hope they send him back down.

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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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17 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

With Norby not getting into games yet, it kind of looks like its Jacksons job to lose. A .796 OPS in 91 PA's at Norfolk doesn't suggest he's MLB ready yet, so if he doesn't look dominant in ST I would hope they send him back down.

Norby is not on the 40 man roster. He has even longer odds to make the team than Holliday. Urias and Westburg are the guys to beat.

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Spy Fox Hangout Veteran Council

Spy Fox

Posted
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1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

.280/.380/.420

That's what I expect.  Manage that.

54 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What’s your address?  I’ll send some antidepressants, just in case.  

This made me wonder how rare a .380 OBP is these days. A couple rookies did beat those OBP and SLG numbers last year in ~2/3 full seasons. Edouard Julien .263/.381/.459 in 109 games and Nolan Jones .297/.389/.542 in 106 games. It was such a good year for rookies that neither was even a ROY finalist. Of course, not exact comps for Holliday since they were age 24 and 25. 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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11 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

This made me wonder how rare a .380 OBP is these days. A couple rookies did beat those OBP and SLG numbers last year in ~2/3 full seasons. Edouard Julien .263/.381/.459 in 109 games and Nolan Jones .297/.389/.542 in 106 games. It was such a good year for rookies that neither was even a ROY finalist. Of course, not exact comps for Holliday since they were age 24 and 25. 

I think Holliday is a great bet to have a .380 OBP when he’s 24-25.   That’s a lot to expect this year.  But even the .340-.350 projected by Steamer and ZiPS would be significantly over league average (.320 in 2023).  Among Orioles players, only Adley (.374) and Hicks (.381) topped .330 OBP last year.   So, I’d be very happy with .340-.350 from a 20-year old.  

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes..that nonsense.

It’s a slightly different situation.  Gunnar was a little older, had a bit more MiL experience, and had already shown in September 2022 that he wasn’t overmatched in the majors.  

But, I’ll be watching the same things with Holliday.  Is he having decent quality at bats?  Is he maintaining a decent OBP even if he’s struggling?  So long as he is, you stick with him.  
 

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Big Mac Veteran All-Star

Big Mac

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53 minutes ago, oriole said:

.290/.349/.488

 

If his dad can do it his rookie season, so can he

That would be a fantastic rookie season, but the context of that season compared to Holliday's upcoming rookie season is important.

Matt Holliday was 24 year old his rookie season.  Also, given the offensive environment in the 2004 season that line was good for only a 103 OPS+.

I think a 103ish OPS+ for Holliday this year is a reasonable expectation.

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