What sort of stats do you feel we'd see from Holliday if he makes the team?

[BohKnowsBmore]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t have an opinion, but will post some “system” projections here:

Steamer: .256/.350/.384

ZiPS: .255/.341/.381

I’d be pretty happy with those from a 20-year old rookie.  The O’s hit .253/.305/.397 at 2B last year, so that would be an upgrade.

Both systems projecting him for a .125-.130-ish ISO.

For comparison (2023 numbers), Jorge Mateo was .123 last year, Adam Frazier was .155, and league average was .164 (Adley was at .158, but not worried about that given where his overall SLG lands).

Is that an outcome of him being a rookie in the projection? Just being young, with power developing later? Something else?

[waroriole]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Witt Jr had a 722 OPS his rookie season.

Better than his dad ever hit. 

[waroriole]

If he wants to sign an extension during spring training then call him up OD. If not, it would be foolish to lose an extra year of service time for a couple of weeks. New owners don’t mean we should just make bad decisions. 

[oriole]

10 hours ago, Big Mac said:

That would be a fantastic rookie season, but the context of that season compared to Holliday's upcoming rookie season is important.

Matt Holliday was 24 year old his rookie season.  Also, given the offensive environment in the 2004 season that line was good for only a 103 OPS+.

I think a 103ish OPS+ for Holliday this year is a reasonable expectation.

I said it to be funny, but you’re absolutely right. In the context of a 2024 hitting environment, a 103 OPS+ definitely seems achievable. I know year to year can sway a lot but here’s some randomly plucked lines between a 102-104 OPS+ from last year. Any of these feels like a reasonable line to hope for.

 

.243/.342/.382

.258/.317/.438

.258/.327/.405

.265/.322/.419

 

 

 

[RZNJ]

Holliday on hitting.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jackson-holliday-talks-hitting/

[wildbillhiccup]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

Tatis had more than 1200 MiL PA under his belt, Vlad 1075.   Witt was closer to Holliday (744 PA) but he also was 18 months older and had been through the Alt site experience in the Covid year.  Bichette had 1445 PA and was a year older than Holliday.   So, they were all either more more experienced (Tatis and Vlad), older (Witt) or both (Bichette).  And while Tatis (.969 OPS) and Bichette (.930) did excel with the bat in their rookie campaigns, Vlad was good not great (.772) and Witt was just so-so (.722).   I'll be thrilled if Holliday debuts like Tatis and Bichette did, but I'll be perfectly satisfied if he starts off more like Witt.  I'm more focused on what the end product will look like than the 2024 version, so long as the 2024 version is holding his own at age 20.

Fair points, but I still think it's fair to set our expectations a bit higher for sons of former major leaguers. At least for the ones who are high end prospects like Holliday. You can't teach talent, but we already know that's not an issue with him. So it's going to boil down to adjusting to MLB pitcher and execution. And I don't think it's unreasonable to think that someone like Holliday, who's had a former MLB player (and good hitter) as his mentor and coach, might better equipped to make a smooth transition than a player who hasn't had those advantages. 

[wildbillhiccup]

16 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Witt Jr had a 722 OPS his rookie season.

Witt also didn't have a father/mentor/coach with these credentials teaching him. 

He received MVP votes 8 times (finishing as high as second), was a Silver Slugger winner 4 times and an All-Star 7 times. Matt won the NL batting title in 2007, with a . 340 BA. He also led the league in doubles, and RBI.

[spleen1015]

16 hours ago, jabba72 said:

With Norby not getting into games yet, it kind of looks like its Jacksons job to lose. A .796 OPS in 91 PA's at Norfolk doesn't suggest he's MLB ready yet, so if he doesn't look dominant in ST I would hope they send him back down.

Look at his first 8 games in AAA versus his last 10.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Fair points, but I still think it's fair to set our expectations a bit higher for sons of former major leaguers. At least for the ones who are high end prospects like Holliday. You can't teach talent, but we already know that's not an issue with him. So it's going to boil down to adjusting to MLB pitcher and execution. And I don't think it's unreasonable to think that someone like Holliday, who's had a former MLB player (and good hitter) as his mentor and coach, might better equipped to make a smooth transition than a player who hasn't had those advantages. 

I’m definitely not ruling it out.   My “style” as a fan is to set reasonably modest expectations for young players and then be ecstatic if they exceed them, rather than setting high expectations and being disappointed if they fall short of them.  Especially a guy like Holliday who’s extremely young and has had very little pro development time.  I don’t doubt that spending the offseason at your dad’s training facility allows one to compensate somewhat for lack of game experience.  

I mentioned that ZiPS projects Holliday at .255/.341/.381 (103 OPS+).  That’s his 50th percentile projection.   His 80th percentile is .282/.373/.427 (122 OPS+).   So I see an outcome like that as feasible, just not something I’m going to expect.