Updated Opening Day Predictions....

[EERinthe804]

After roughly 1/3 of spring training games and not much else to do, I put together my thoughts on my OD predictions at this point:

I don't think Elias is necessarily going to try to put the best possible lineup out there for OD.  He is trying to win the World Series, not win April.  In doing this, he has to balance risk/liability with winning games.  Ideally, these two differing ideas reconcile, but early in the year I believe they won't.  For instance, if Elias brings up all the young prospects (Mayo, Holliday, Coswer, etc) and jettisons the veterans (Mateo, Urias, McKenna, etc), that very well may be the best "team" he could field in order to win games, but it doesn't address mitigation for injuries/players playing poorly, etc.  Elias wants to keep all options/flexibility open for as long as its feasible.  For instance, we may believe Mayo is an upgrade to Urias and will help win more games overall - which may or may not be the case.  Why would Elias want to have Mayo on OD and DFA (for instance) Urias?  That's a huge gamble and opens up a ton of liability/risk for the team.  In that scenario, if Mayo doesn't play well or gets injured, Urias is no longer rostered to replace him - it's an all or nothing gamble.  Instead he can start OD with Urias and have Mayo in AAA, see how the season plays out for those 2 players and as the season moves forward, risk begins to go down for 2 reasons (1) you have a better sample size of each player and how they will perform and (2) there is less season left for injuries, etc to occur.

With all of this said, I do think as we get late into the year and near playoff time, Elias does want to go "all-in" on the his best "team" and will do what's appropriate to have the best players rostered and ready to contribute - no matter if they are young players or more experienced veterans.  It's too early in the year to take these risks, in my opinion. Let the season playout some then place your bets on who to DFA or call up.

With this in mind - below is my thoughts on opening day (and a little peek at organization depth) as of this point (the players in green are not on the 40-man roster).  I think they try to pass Nevin and Maton thru waivers to get them at AAA for depth.

	Opening		Minor League
	Day		Depth
CF	Mullins		Cowser/Bradfield
C	Rutschman		Basallo
SS	Henderson		Servideo/Bencosme
RF	Santander		Kjerstad/Horvath
1B	Mountcastle		Willems
DH	O'Hearn		Fabian
LF	Hays		Stowers/Beavers
3B	Westburg		Mayo/Wagner
2B	Holliday		Norby/Wong
SP	Burnes		Teheran
SP	Rodriguez		McDermott
SP	Kremer		Povich
SP	Wells		Armbruester
SP	Irvin		Krook
RP	Kimbrel		Vespi
RP	Cano		Charles
RP	Coulombe		Seth Johnson
RP	Perez		Heasley
RP	Tate		Baker
RP	Webb		Ort
RP	Baumann		Watson
RP	Akin		Zimmerman
Bench	McCann
Bench	Mateo
Bench	Urias
Bench	McKenna
Injured	Means
Injured	Bradish
Injured	Bautista

[sportsfan8703]

If Holliday doesn't make the OD roster, then one of Maton/Wong/Nevin will.  They might just be placeholders for 10 days.

It appears to be McKenna vs. Cowser for the last bench spot.  If Mateo, and Cowser, can play CF effectively, then that makes Mckenna expendable.  Daniel Johnson has had a strong showing so far.

That last 4 spots in the pen will involve players that have options, and we can rotate through them as needed.  Unless, Terehan makes the OD roster, or gets called up at any point.  He's out of options.  

[interloper]

45 minutes ago, EERinthe804 said:

After roughly 1/3 of spring training games and not much else to do, I put together my thoughts on my OD predictions at this point:

I don't think Elias is necessarily going to try to put the best possible lineup out there for OD.  He is trying to win the World Series, not win April.  In doing this, he has to balance risk/liability with winning games.  Ideally, these two differing ideas reconcile, but early in the year I believe they won't.  For instance, if Elias brings up all the young prospects (Mayo, Holliday, Coswer, etc) and jettisons the veterans (Mateo, Urias, McKenna, etc), that very well may be the best "team" he could field in order to win games, but it doesn't address mitigation for injuries/players playing poorly, etc.  Elias wants to keep all options/flexibility open for as long as its feasible.  For instance, we may believe Mayo is an upgrade to Urias and will help win more games overall - which may or may not be the case.  Why would Elias want to have Mayo on OD and DFA (for instance) Urias?  That's a huge gamble and opens up a ton of liability/risk for the team.  In that scenario, if Mayo doesn't play well or gets injured, Urias is no longer rostered to replace him - it's an all or nothing gamble.  Instead he can start OD with Urias and have Mayo in AAA, see how the season plays out for those 2 players and as the season moves forward, risk begins to go down for 2 reasons (1) you have a better sample size of each player and how they will perform and (2) there is less season left for injuries, etc to occur.

With all of this said, I do think as we get late into the year and near playoff time, Elias does want to go "all-in" on the his best "team" and will do what's appropriate to have the best players rostered and ready to contribute - no matter if they are young players or more experienced veterans.  It's too early in the year to take these risks, in my opinion. Let the season playout some then place your bets on who to DFA or call up.

With this in mind - below is my thoughts on opening day (and a little peek at organization depth) as of this point (the players in green are not on the 40-man roster).  I think they try to pass Nevin and Maton thru waivers to get them at AAA for depth.

	Opening		Minor League
	Day		Depth
CF	Mullins		Cowser/Bradfield
C	Rutschman		Basallo
SS	Henderson		Servideo/Bencosme
RF	Santander		Kjerstad/Horvath
1B	Mountcastle		Willems
DH	O'Hearn		Fabian
LF	Hays		Stowers/Beavers
3B	Westburg		Mayo/Wagner
2B	Holliday		Norby/Wong
SP	Burnes		Teheran
SP	Rodriguez		McDermott
SP	Kremer		Povich
SP	Wells		Armbruester
SP	Irvin		Krook
RP	Kimbrel		Vespi
RP	Cano		Charles
RP	Coulombe		Seth Johnson
RP	Perez		Heasley
RP	Tate		Baker
RP	Webb		Ort
RP	Baumann		Watson
RP	Akin		Zimmerman
Bench	McCann
Bench	Mateo
Bench	Urias
Bench	McKenna
Injured	Means
Injured	Bradish
Injured	Bautista

Not the pick this apart, but there's a lot here that doesn't make sense to me.

I'm not sure why you have Willems at the main minor league depth for 1B. He's a catcher, and we would definitely use someone from AAA first. Similarly, you have Fabian as a DH depth option? He's a CFer and probably would slot before Bradfield in the CF depth chart. We can use literally anybody for DH, a minor league depth option isn't necessary there. For SS, our minor league depth option is Errol Robinson. Neither of the two guys you listed there would have any shot at coming up to the big leagues this year. 

[EERinthe804]

15 minutes ago, interloper said:

Not the pick this apart, but there's a lot here that doesn't make sense to me.

I'm not sure why you have Willems at the main minor league depth for 1B. He's a catcher, and we would definitely use someone from AAA first. Similarly, you have Fabian as a DH depth option? He's a CFer and probably would slot before Bradfield in the CF depth chart. We can use literally anybody for DH, a minor league depth option isn't necessary there. For SS, our minor league depth option is Errol Robinson. Neither of the two guys you listed there would have any shot at coming up to the big leagues this year. 

Yep all points are correct.  Minor league depth is meant to be minor league depth prospects, not for this year and maybe not for next year.  It’s organizational depth not necessarily 2024 depth.

Edited March 4 by EERinthe804

[sportsfan8703]

Just look at the spreadsheet of who is playing and where they are playing.  It's pretty obvious as to what is the A squad, and what is the B squad.  Holliday and Westburg are on the B squad as of now so that they can get reps in at SS with Gunnar making his ST debut.  

The only ST battles I see as of now are Mckenna vs. Cowser, and Maton vs. Wong.  The bullpen doesn't really matter outside the core 5 because we'll rotate guys through the other 3 spots.  

[dystopia]

I will be very mad if McKenna is on the roster over both Cowser and Kjerstad. 

[DirtyBird]

This was mine about a week ago:

C - Adley, McCann

1B/DH - Mountcastle, O’Hearn

IF - Gunnar, Westburg, (Holliday or Mayo), Urias, Mateo

OF - Mullins, Hays, Cowser, Santander

 

Now, I think we can just cross off "or Mayo"