Melewski: Hyde sets the rotation

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's a decent rotation and I hope these guys stay healthy.  

Not expecting anything from Means, not expecting anything from Bradish.  Means, obviously, will be back at some point in time but it's hard to say how effective he'll be.   I understand why they're trying treatment with Bradish, but IMO they're just delaying the inevitable.

 

Yeah, but your opinion is based on nothing.  Even if there’s a 75% chance that Bradish will need surgery, it’s not “inevitable” that he will.   

Anyway, so far what we know is that Elias has said he “expects” Bradish to be back, and so far Bradish has progressed through his throwing program with no apparent setbacks.   So I think your “inevitable” characterization is just your defense mechanism against potential disappointment.   
 

[24fps]

9 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

I think Cole Irvin could be a #5 starter on a World Series team.

 

Given enough starts, I expect results in the same neighborhood as Gibson last year and that's plenty good enough for a #5.  Zero concerns about durability.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, but your opinion is based on nothing.  Even if there’s a 75% chance that Bradish will need surgery, it’s not “inevitable” that he will.   

Anyway, so far what we know is that Elias has said he “expects” Bradish to be back, and so far Bradish has progressed through his throwing program with no apparent setbacks.   So I think your “inevitable” characterization is just your defense mechanism against potential disappointment.   
 

And I *expect* Elias to say that.  

My opinion is based on the fact that yeah, the treatment can work but these guys end up with TJ more often than not.  I can easily see a scenario where Bradish is back after "no apparent setbacks" and then lasts two or three games and then has "forearm tightness."

So you can characterize my inevitable characterization however you want, I'm just calling it like I see it.  If you're confident that Bradish gets 25+ starts this year, I'd love to have that optimism.  

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

And I *expect* Elias to say that.  

My opinion is based on the fact that yeah, the treatment can work but these guys end up with TJ more often than not.  I can easily see a scenario where Bradish is back after "no apparent setbacks" and then lasts two or three games and then has "forearm tightness."

So you can characterize my inevitable characterization however you want, I'm just calling it like I see it.  If you're confident that Bradish gets 25+ starts this year, I'd love to have that optimism.  

Yeah. Keeping expectations low is healthy for this kind of thing. We're Orioles fans, if you're not setting pitching expectations low, I kinda feel like you're doing it wrong. 

[dystopia]

35 minutes ago, interloper said:

Show me where there is any angst. We're just discussing stuff. 

There's the post directly above yours.

[Can_of_corn]

36 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

I think Cole Irvin could be a #5 starter on a World Series team.

 

Me too, the #5 Starter doesn't actually start in the playoffs.

[maybenxtyr]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Me too, the #5 Starter doesn't actually start in the playoffs.

He's shown some value in the pen if they can get there. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Safelykept said:

I trust the first 4 but we need Means

Agree totally on the first 4. IMO, Irvin is not a starting pitcher on a championship contending team. He can possibly/hopefully succeed for the first month or so, given our soft early season schedule.

But once we start facing the big boys, watch out. He just doesn’t have the stuff to get out good right handed hitters consistently IMO.

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

And I *expect* Elias to say that.  

My opinion is based on the fact that yeah, the treatment can work but these guys end up with TJ more often than not.  I can easily see a scenario where Bradish is back after "no apparent setbacks" and then lasts two or three games and then has "forearm tightness."

So you can characterize my inevitable characterization however you want, I'm just calling it like I see it.  If you're confident that Bradish gets 25+ starts this year, I'd love to have that optimism.  

I’m not confident at all.  In fact, 25+ (which would require him to be back before mid-May) is pretty much impossible.   I’m hopeful he can make 20ish starts if things go well and there are no setbacks.  I don’t think it’s certain at all that there won’t be setbacks, I just don’t see the opposite scenario as inevitable.  

I take issue with you saying you’d expect Elias to say what he did. I usually find him to be far more noncommittal when it comes to pitcher injuries.   Now, maybe he was more positive than usual in order not to show his hand in discussions to acquire another pitcher.  But the fact that he hasn’t acquired one suggests to me that he meant what he said.   
 

[Bemorewins]

I will say this, even if Bradish doesn’t, Means continues to prove to be injury prone, Wells wears down, and Irvin is not effective, we have a lot of ammo in the org to make whatever trade is necessary mid season. 

We should be good any way it goes with those 4 as long as Grayson takes another step, Burnes is Burnes, and Kremer is reliable/serviceable (like he was last year). 

[Say O!]

1 hour ago, orioles119 said:

Just get the surgery - come back strong in 2025.

If he has TJ surgery, we shouldn’t expect meaningful contributions until 2026.  Maybe could return in limited action by Sept 2025.

[dystopia]

9 minutes ago, Say O! said:

If he has TJ surgery, we shouldn’t expect meaningful contributions until 2026.  Maybe could return in limited action by Sept 2025.

Yeah Means went down in April of 2022 and didn’t return until September of 2023. That seemed abnormally long to me for TJ. 

[Big Mac]

Cole Irvin is perfectly fine as the #5 Starter on a contending team and really, he is our SP #7.  He's only in the 5th slot because two guys went down with injury.

Irvin in 2021-23 (his three full/mostly full seasons in the majors): 436.2 IP; 4.16 ERA and 4.29 FIP.  What do you all think most 5th starters look like? Sure he doesn't miss a ton of bats but he doesn't walk people and generally keeps the ball in the ballpark.

[Moose Milligan]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not confident at all.  In fact, 25+ (which would require him to be back before mid-May) is pretty much impossible.   I’m hopeful he can make 20ish starts if things go well and there are no setbacks.  I don’t think it’s certain at all that there won’t be setbacks, I just don’t see the opposite scenario as inevitable.  

I take issue with you saying you’d expect Elias to say what he did. I usually find him to be far more noncommittal when it comes to pitcher injuries.   Now, maybe he was more positive than usual in order not to show his hand in discussions to acquire another pitcher.  But the fact that he hasn’t acquired one suggests to me that he meant what he said.   
 

You can take all the issues you want with me, Froberto Duran, and that's fine.  I take issue with the constant dissection and interpretation of what Elias says to the media and I think I'm one of the few (if not the only member here) who doesn't take him seriously when there are microphones in his face.  I think Elias does a great job of being as honest as he can with the media without delving into much detail.  To me, he's a master of saying a lot without saying anything at all.  If he wanted to, I think he'd have a fantastic career in politics.

I'm as big of a fan of his as anyone else, I appreciate that he makes himself available to the media because I understand that a lot of fans like that and they -unlike myself- love to spend time unpacking what he said...interpreting it, trying to figure out what he means, etc.  To me, it's about as fun as slamming a finger in a car door, but whatever.

So yeah, I expect him to say exactly that, for a number of reasons.  First, he seems to be an overall positive guy.  Second, like you said, maybe he doesn't want to show his hand in discussions to acquire another pitcher...though I hope other GMs aren't sitting around listening to soundclips of Elias speaking and trying to gauge how badly the Orioles need another SP.  Third, maybe Bradish really isn't that bad off and he's actually telling the truth.

We can agree to disagree that having not acquired an SP suggests that he means what he said.  It's a long season, I think he's going to try to make do with what he has already and if Bradish isn't back and we really do need a starter by the deadline, he can get one then.  

[Spy Fox]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

And I don't love being in the position of feeling like we need to count on Means, who hasn't thrown significant innings since 2021. I trust Elias, but he's really living on the edge with this rotation. The extreme risk aversion when it comes to trades and signings could come back to bite him, but we'll see. 

Seems like our depth rotation guys are: Zimmermann, Albert Suarez, Teheran, McDermott, Povich. Fine enough to eat some innings, but that's about it. Love McDermott, but can't expect too much from him in his rookie year. 

I don't see the SP depth quite as problematically. It's normal for contending teams to still have some trouble at SP5 and beyond. 

Last year the 100 win Dodgers survived a 6.13 ERA Michael Grove and 7.16 ERA Noah Syndergaard getting 12 starts each. The 104 win Braves survived 7 starts from 7.60 ERA Dylan Dodd, 7 starts from 6.97 ERA Kyle Wright, and 6 starts from 6.40 ERA Michael Soroka. 

This April the Yankees likely 5th starter Clayton Beeter is a rookie who had a 4.94 ERA at AAA last year. One of the Astros' starters Ronel Blanco is an Austin Voth-esque 30 year old with 58.1 career innings of a 4.78 ERA.

These examples are picked to find the bad, of course. But find me a team whose 8th/9th SPs-- or even 6th/7th-- don't have serious question marks.