What would you do?

[maybenxtyr]

14 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

I think it takes more than that.

Possibly. 

[Satyr3206]

1 minute ago, maybenxtyr said:

Possibly. 

Boras is his Agent.

[maybenxtyr]

22 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

Boras is his Agent.

I know. Combine that and the fact that he's not coming from a background where he needs the money right now, I think it will be difficult to reach a contract.

[baltfan]

11 hours ago, RZNJ said:

You honestly think that they take the best 26 players regardless of service time, player options, etc.?

THIS!   Everyone is a bit greedy. Heck even for my fantasy team with an ultra draft, I will forestall using guys for a year to keep them a year longer.  You are sometimes willing to potentially sacrifice the present (while hoping you are not) for a better future.  

[baltfan]

5 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I know. Combine that and the fact that he's not coming from a background where he needs the money right now, I think it will be difficult to reach a contract.

These young guys all seem to genuinely like one another.  I am not saying it will happen, but with a new owner I could see them wanting to all stay together.  Holliday has money. His dad played.  His dad might tell his son to prioritize the experience vs the money. 

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

Boras is his Agent.

Let’s assume they keep him down long enough and gain the extra year.

How much money doe you think he makes from 2024-2030?

[Frobby]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

In another thread, you are essentially arguing that there isn’t a need to worry about the pen because we had a low save % last year.

Now you are saying we shouldn’t assume a margin for error.

Which is it?

I don’t see why those two things are inconsistent.   

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

I don’t see why those two things are inconsistent.   

If the pen isn’t good, the margin for error (which you admit is small), will be gone.

You can’t say, well I’m ok with a subpar pen while also saying you know the margin for error is small.

It is far more likely that the pen being subpar is a bigger impact than Holliday not being a MLer for 1-2 months.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If the pen isn’t good, the margin for error (which you admit is small), will be gone.

You can’t say, well I’m ok with a subpar pen while also saying you know the margin for error is small.

It is far more likely that the pen being subpar is a bigger impact than Holliday not being a MLer for 1-2 months.

I didn’t say I was okay with a subpar pen.  You said you were very worried about the bullpen.  I’m saying it’s not very hard for this bullpen to outperform last year’s, in the important measure of save rate.   

I agree with you that performance of the bullpen could have a big impact on the team’s W-L record.   Bullpens are volatile and I really can’t say if this year’s will be better or worse than last year’s.   I think most folks would agree that Kimbrel is a significant downgrade from Bautista, as just about anyone would be.   But I’d say there’s a decent chance the middle relievers and set-up guys will be as good or better than last year.  We’ll see what happens.  
 

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I didn’t say I was okay with a subpar pen.  You said you were very worried about the bullpen.  I’m saying it’s not very hard for this bullpen to outperform last year’s, in the important measure of save rate.   

I agree with you that performance of the bullpen could have a big impact on the team’s W-L record.   Bullpens are volatile and I really can’t say if this year’s will be better or worse than last year’s.   I think most folks would agree that Kimbrel is a significant downgrade from Bautista, as just about anyone would be.   But I’d say there’s a decent chance the middle relievers and set-up guys will be as good or better than last year.  We’ll see what happens.  
 

I don’t think save rate is a very important measure at all especially since it lacks so much context.

Your post in that thread seemed to imply(again within the context of what was being discussed) that despite that poor save rate that we still won 101 games and that if the pen is subpar, we can overcome it.

Edited March 25 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

22 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think save rate is a very important measure at all especially since it lacks so much context.

Your post in that thread seemed to imply(again within the context of what was being discussed) that despite that poor save rate that we still won 101 games and that if the pen is subpar, we can overcome it.

I think my post was quite clear.

“Not that worried about it.  Our bullpen wasn’t all that great last year, 61% save rate compared to 62% league average.  I don’t think it’s hard to match or exceed that.”

So, I’m saying I think this year’s pen is likely to equal or exceed last year’s.  I’m not saying the team can overcome a significant deterioration in the performance of the bullpen. 

As to whether save percentage is an important stat, I think it’s very important.  I’m more interested in “did we preserve our leads” than “did our relievers strike out lots of guys?”  You can say the latter is more predictive of future success if you’d like, but I’m interested in what actually happens in the season at hand.  Will we blow more leads, or fewer?   If the answer is fewer, that bodes well no matter how they do it.  
 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think my post was quite clear.

“Not that worried about it.  Our bullpen wasn’t all that great last year, 61% save rate compared to 62% league average.  I don’t think it’s hard to match or exceed that.”

So, I’m saying I think this year’s pen is likely to equal or exceed last year’s.  I’m not saying the team can overcome a significant deterioration in the performance of the bullpen. 

As to whether save percentage is an important stat, I think it’s very important.  I’m more interested in “did we preserve our leads” than “did our relievers strike out lots of guys?”  You can say the latter is more predictive of future success if you’d like, but I’m interested in what actually happens in the season at hand.  Will we blow more leads, or fewer?   If the answer is fewer, that bodes well no matter how they do it.  
 

 But that’s a disingenuous stat. Like, if I have a 1 run lead in the 6th inning and the pen gives it up, that’s not really some crazy thing. I just don’t see that as some valid stat and it’s not something I would be overly concerned with.

Im Much more worried about getting guys out and being able to sustain success.