What Service Time Manipulation Gives Us

[Gofannon]

Am I correct that keeping Holliday and Mayo in the minors for 15 days would put our young players on this schedule for free agency?

Adley Rutschman - after 2027 season

Gunnar Henderson/Kyle Bradish - after 2028 season

Grayson Rodriguez/Jordan Westburg/(Colton Cowser?) - after 2029 season

Jackson Holliday/Coby Mayo/(Heston Kjerstad?) - after 2030 season

 

With that in mind, it does seem like it's worth it to use the "adjust to lefties and 2B" argument for Holliday and "work on defense and have innings in the outfield" argument for Mayo.  If they call either of these guys up soon and they win Rookie of the Year, they've earned their year of service, and they've likely played well enough to help the team make a run.  Truth be told, if you call them both up in the same year and they both produce, they may cancel each other out in the ROY voting.  I can't remember a team having prospects go 1-2 in the ROY race.

This also reemphasizes that next spring, even if all goes well, Lucy may still pull the football away before we can kick it and Basallo will need some April tinkering in southeast Virginia.

Edited March 23 by Gofannon

[waroriole]

It makes sense to get the extra year. It doesn’t make sense to proclaim Holliday has a chance to make the team, unprompted, and then send him to Norfolk after he has a great spring. Just an unforced error. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Gofannon said:

 I can't remember a team having prospects go 1-2 in the ROY race.

 

Probably because it hasn't happened since 2022.

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, Gofannon said:

Am I correct that keeping Holliday and Mayo in the minors for 15 days would put our young players on this schedule for free agency?

Adley Rutschman - after 2027 season

Gunnar Henderson/Kyle Bradish - after 2028 season

Grayson Rodriguez/(Colton Cowser?) - after 2029 season

Jackson Holliday/Coby Mayo/(Heston Kjerstad?) - after 2030 season

 

With that in mind, it does seem like it's worth it to use the "adjust to lefties and 2B" argument for Holliday and "work on defense and have innings in the outfield" argument for Mayo.  If they call either of these guys up soon and they win Rookie of the Year, they've earned their year of service, and they've likely played well enough to help the team make a run.  Truth be told, if you call them both up in the same year and they both produce, they may cancel each other out in the ROY voting.  I can't remember a team having prospects go 1-2 in the ROY race.

This also reemphasizes that next spring, even if all goes well, Lucy may still pull the football away before we can kick it and Basallo will need some April tinkering in southeast Virginia.

No matter how you slice it, extensions will be necessary to lengthen the contention window.  We cannot continue to act as a pauper franchise and sustain long term excellence in terms of multiple World Series runs (which is what I hope that all of the extreme tanking was for). No one in the history of the game has been able to do that. You have to spend real money!

[Gofannon]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Probably because it hasn't happened since 2022.

I'll take the demerit for being lazy and not checking.  That said, it's happened 8 times ever in the 75 years of the award.  I hope we can agree that 8 times out of 150 awards makes it pretty rare.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/teammates-to-finish-first-and-second-in-rookie-of-the-year-voting

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Gofannon said:

I'll take the demerit for being lazy and not checking.  That said, it's happened 8 times ever in the 75 years of the award.  I hope we can agree that 8 times out of 150 awards makes it pretty rare.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/teammates-to-finish-first-and-second-in-rookie-of-the-year-voting

I agree that it is rare but I would expect the rate to increase as voters are more analytic driven over story driven.

[Jim'sKid26]

2 minutes ago, Gofannon said:

I'll take the demerit for being lazy and not checking.  That said, it's happened 8 times ever in the 75 years of the award.  I hope we can agree that 8 times out of 150 awards makes it pretty rare.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/teammates-to-finish-first-and-second-in-rookie-of-the-year-voting

If I am doing the math correctly, that's about 5.3% or slightly more than 1:20. I'm not sure that qualifies as rare. 

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Gofannon said:

I'll take the demerit for being lazy and not checking.  That said, it's happened 8 times ever in the 75 years of the award.  I hope we can agree that 8 times out of 150 awards makes it pretty rare.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/teammates-to-finish-first-and-second-in-rookie-of-the-year-voting

The O’s finished 1-2-3 in 1960.   

[Gofannon]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The O’s finished 1-2-3 in 1960.   

Ron Hansen, Chuck Estrada, and Jim Gentile would all earn an earlier step to free agency in today's day and age.  "Baby Birds", indeed!

[George Zuverink]

1 hour ago, Gofannon said:

Ron Hansen, Chuck Estrada, and Jim Gentile would all earn an earlier step to free agency in today's day and age.  "Baby Birds", indeed!

Estrada is one of those guys who could have had a great career if Tommy John surgery had been available.  Got me to thinking about what could have been in the 60’s. Imagine a staff with Palmer, Steve Barber, Chuck Estrada, and Wally Bunker as starters with Steve Dalkowski and Hoyt Wilhelm in relief.

[Rbiggs2525]

I thought it’s more than 15 games now. I remember Rutchman coming up end of May just to be safe. I imagine they gave them the defensive talk and we will see them soon.

[Gilbutson]

3 hours ago, Gofannon said:

Am I correct that keeping Holliday and Mayo in the minors for 15 days would put our young players on this schedule for free agency?

Adley Rutschman - after 2027 season

Gunnar Henderson/Kyle Bradish - after 2028 season

Grayson Rodriguez/Jordan Westburg/(Colton Cowser?) - after 2029 season

Jackson Holliday/Coby Mayo/(Heston Kjerstad?) - after 2030 season

 

With that in mind, it does seem like it's worth it to use the "adjust to lefties and 2B" argument for Holliday and "work on defense and have innings in the outfield" argument for Mayo.  If they call either of these guys up soon and they win Rookie of the Year, they've earned their year of service, and they've likely played well enough to help the team make a run.  Truth be told, if you call them both up in the same year and they both produce, they may cancel each other out in the ROY voting.  I can't remember a team having prospects go 1-2 in the ROY race.

This also reemphasizes that next spring, even if all goes well, Lucy may still pull the football away before we can kick it and Basallo will need some April tinkering in southeast Virginia.

“I can’t remember a team having two prospects go 1-2 in the ROY race.”

2024 Rangers are about to say “hold my beer”.

Edited March 23 by Gilbutson

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Gofannon said:

Am I correct that keeping Holliday and Mayo in the minors for 15 days would put our young players on this schedule for free agency?

Adley Rutschman - after 2027 season

Gunnar Henderson/Kyle Bradish - after 2028 season

Grayson Rodriguez/Jordan Westburg/(Colton Cowser?) - after 2029 season

Jackson Holliday/Coby Mayo/(Heston Kjerstad?) - after 2030 season

 

With that in mind, it does seem like it's worth it to use the "adjust to lefties and 2B" argument for Holliday and "work on defense and have innings in the outfield" argument for Mayo.  If they call either of these guys up soon and they win Rookie of the Year, they've earned their year of service, and they've likely played well enough to help the team make a run.  Truth be told, if you call them both up in the same year and they both produce, they may cancel each other out in the ROY voting.  I can't remember a team having prospects go 1-2 in the ROY race.

This also reemphasizes that next spring, even if all goes well, Lucy may still pull the football away before we can kick it and Basallo will need some April tinkering in southeast Virginia.

It's not fun from a fan standpoint, especially after Elias' offseason remarks on Holliday and then Holliday's performance this spring, but it absolutely makes sense from a free agency standpoint.

It mostly likely won't be  just 15 days because Elias needs the optics to look like it really was about his lack of ability to hit lefties and to get more experience at 2B. Depending on how the team is doing and how Westburg/Urias are performing it certainly could be longer. 

[baltfan]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's not fun from a fan standpoint, especially after Elias' offseason remarks on Holliday and then Holliday's performance this spring, but it absolutely makes sense from a free agency standpoint.

It mostly likely not be  just 15 days because Elias needs the optics to look like it really was about his lack of ability to hit lefties and to get more experience at 2B. Depending on how the team is doing and how Westburg/Urias are performing it certainly could be longer. 

He would be stupid as hell to make it just 15 days and give Holliday the chance to win the time back by being top 2 in ROTY.  That’s what happened with Adley though he started later.  If he was going to be here in 15 days, I think he would be here now.  

[sevastras]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's not fun from a fan standpoint, especially after Elias' offseason remarks on Holliday and then Holliday's performance this spring, but it absolutely makes sense from a free agency standpoint.

It mostly likely not be  just 15 days because Elias needs the optics to look like it really was about his lack of ability to hit lefties and to get more experience at 2B. Depending on how the team is doing and how Westburg/Urias are performing it certainly could be longer. 

It is BS and everyone knows it. He isn’t going to get any great t opportunities to hit lefties at AAA and if that was a real issue, he would be facing every lefty in the system for the remainder of the next week in simulated games. He is hands down better than Wong and probably starts the year better and has a better season than Henderson did last year. The reality is ME was hoping to find a trade that made sense to clear some room for him or hoped for a struggle of sorts to get the extra year. I hope he tears the cover off the ball at AAA and forces his way into the team by mid year and then comes up and finishes top two in the ROY just to shove it up MEs rear end for playing this game with probably the second best player on the team after Henderson. Of course that is ancillary to my want for them to win the WS.