Prospect Trade Value

[Frobby]

18 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Scott looks awful early..tons of walks. 
 

Im not sure what I would give up for Luzardo but he would and should be a target right now. 
 

 

He was awful in spring training too.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, harp6 said:

I think overwork or underwork is a problem, but it is only part of the main issue.  Yes, it you work to often or to long, fatigue can set in and that increases the chance for injury.  But, the biggest issue is no longer workload.  The biggest issue is what pitchers are now trying to do with their pitches.  Pitchers are trying to increase their pitch velocity to the upper nineties.  They are trying to increase their spin rate, etc.  As you mentioned, this is putting more stress on their arms.  They have access to all these modern pitching metrics and they believe that in order to become a great pitcher you have to work on improving and increasing all these things.  There is some truth to this.  But these are also the things that are putting to much stress on pitching arms and it is ultimately what is causing these major injuries.  Pitchers can work on improving velocity, spin rate, etc., but there needs to be balance to figure out how much is to much.  The price they pay is sacrificing a long pitching career for a half dozen or less good years.  The number of big injuries to pitchers has increased greatly in the last dozen or so years.  We have the metrics, but there needs to be more science on how much these arms can take and how can a pitcher become a smarter pitcher and stay within what their arms can handle.

 

But how many of them, if they don't do this sort of thing, will have long pitching careers?  If you don't throw hard, if you don't spin the ball, can you get enough outs to be a viable ML pitcher?

Hitters just do too much damage to be allowed to square up the ball.  You pretty much have to strike guys out in today's game.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Scott has similar velo and great EV numbers.  My guess it's more SSS than health or decline.  I'm still interested especially if I could find something like a release point or arm slot change from 2023.

None of those things have anything to do with command or control. He isn’t going to get hit hard but if he is back to walking a ton of guys, he can’t be trusted.

[btdart20]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

None of those things have anything to do with command or control. He isn’t going to get hit hard but if he is back to walking a ton of guys, he can’t be trusted.

His mechanics have nothing to do with command or control?

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

His mechanics have nothing to do with command or control?

Never said that. I was talking about his EV and Velo numbers.

[Orioles0615]

Shane Bieber is getting tommy john, take him off the board for any potential trade 

[emmett16]

3 hours ago, harp6 said:

I think overwork or underwork is a problem, but it is only part of the main issue.  Yes, it you work to often or to long, fatigue can set in and that increases the chance for injury.  But, the biggest issue is no longer workload.  The biggest issue is what pitchers are now trying to do with their pitches.  Pitchers are trying to increase their pitch velocity to the upper nineties.  They are trying to increase their spin rate, etc.  As you mentioned, this is putting more stress on their arms.  They have access to all these modern pitching metrics and they believe that in order to become a great pitcher you have to work on improving and increasing all these things.  There is some truth to this.  But these are also the things that are putting to much stress on pitching arms and it is ultimately what is causing these major injuries.  Pitchers can work on improving velocity, spin rate, etc., but there needs to be balance to figure out how much is to much.  The price they pay is sacrificing a long pitching career for a half dozen or less good years.  The number of big injuries to pitchers has increased greatly in the last dozen or so years.  We have the metrics, but there needs to be more science on how much these arms can take and how can a pitcher become a smarter pitcher and stay within what their arms can handle.

 

It’s a risk vs. reward proposition.  They aren’t risking a long career, they are risking physical injury for the chance to be one of 780 MLB athletes.  People will always sacrifice for a shot to play in MLB.  And there is an endless amount of talent right behind each injury. 
 

What you failed to mention is shoulder injuries have decreased to almost non-existent. I do think if MLB came together with a unified plan they could reduce the amount of TJ.  It will never go away completely, but they could reduce significantly if they all got on the samE page. 
 

A major factor leading to injuries is that players go all out in games with an adrenaline spike, but don’t practice that way.  If you’re only going 80-90% in your bullpens and side work and then ramp it up for games, you’re setting your self up for disaster.  Thats another ramification of under work.
 

There is a lot of information out there but most of it is proprietary to various teams and there is no central database in MLB.  It becomes a competitive advantage, one team trying to get slightly ahead of others (same reason medical are held as state secrets).  But at the end of the day, there are a million factors, all bodies are different, and short of tracking every workout, every throw, every situation of every player throughout MiLB & MLB where  injuries arise there will be a continued trend of escalated TJ surgery.  

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

But how many of them, if they don't do this sort of thing, will have long pitching careers?  If you don't throw hard, if you don't spin the ball, can you get enough outs to be a viable ML pitcher?

Hitters just do too much damage to be allowed to square up the ball.  You pretty much have to strike guys out in today's game.

Not even in today’s game, but to get a crack at a pro career, sneak in at the bottom level and slowly work your way up.  People will always sacrifice for glory, and when you go down, there is a line around the corner waiting for your spot. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Shane Bieber is getting tommy john, take him off the board for any potential trade 

Brutal. These teams need to trade these guys earlier. 

[emmett16]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Brutal. These teams need to trade these guys earlier. 

I have a sneaking suspicion they knew he was damaged and wouldn’t be able to complete a deal this off-season.
 

Did you mean like 3 years ago?  If so, yea - agree.  Especially a pitching factory like CLE. 

Edited April 6 by emmett16

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Never said that. I was talking about his EV and Velo numbers.

How does that impact Scott's BB% enough to not be interested?  I'm not saying we should be, but iirc you liked him previously.  Why do you think his "tons of walks" is more than SSS?

[dystopia]

Pitching is in crisis right now. The rate of serious injuries is unsustainable.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Pitching is in crisis right now. The rate of serious injuries is unsustainable.

There’s always another body to throw at the problem.   

[Just Regular]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There’s always another body to throw at the problem.   

Shohei only needs to inspire the dreams of Japanese kids at about triple the rate American kids are dreaming of Cy Young awards for Japan to have about as many born ~2010 humans training up for pitching excellence as the USA.

If the Dodgers can go from NY to LA in the 1950's, why not LA to Tokyo in the 2050's?

I hope baseball Yao Ming is alive, and there's some girl using Edgetronic cameras to perfect the knuckleball.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

I have a sneaking suspicion they knew he was damaged and wouldn’t be able to complete a deal this off-season.
 

Did you mean like 3 years ago?  If so, yea - agree.  Especially a pitching factory like CLE. 

They may have thought that but that doesn’t mean you don’t try.