Jump to content

Holliday 2024 fWAR expectations


Sports Guy

Holliday WAR  

51 members have voted

  1. 1. Holliday 2024 fWAR: O/U 2.9?



Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Fiver6565 said:

To be clear, I don't think he's going to get sent down.  But the reality is he will need to pick up the pace relatively significantly to even get to the Cal bar.  He's on pace for 5 or 6-for-104 right now, with a million K's in there.  Again, not saying that will continue, I highly doubt it does.  I'm just curious HOW bad it would have to get before they'd send him down.

I also don't think he's necessarily shown that he's mastered AAA pitching, as someone else posited. He's hit well there but it wasn't a lot of games, and half the ones from this year were against a team that seems it shouldn't even be in AAA its so bad.  I'd be curious how far his stats would have dropped in AAA if he'd stayed, the way the rest of the guys have evened off.

All of which is to say, he's here, and I am pretty confident he's staying almost regardless, but I am curious where the line for breaching that 'almost' is.

But he's not on pace to go 6-for-104. He's expected to post something like a .800 OPS, so he's on pace to do (whatever he's done so far) and another 70-odd PAs of something much better than that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Have the same poll up on twitter.

So far, with 79 votes, it’s 51% under , 49% over.

So, OH i more pessimistic so far.

Surprising result to me.

As one who took the under, I'm not surprised that the OH seems to have better judgment than Twitter.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Pickles said:

As one who took the under, I'm not surprised that the OH seems to have better judgment than Twitter.

The sky is falling here more than anywhere else when it comes to the Orioles. I'm not surprised either, but I'm not going to pretend that people here are more intelligent.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Have the same poll up on twitter.

So far, with 79 votes, it’s 51% under , 49% over.

So, OH i more pessimistic so far.

Surprising result to me.

Knowing Twitter I'm surprised it's not 90-10 under. Isn't purpose of Twitter to convince us that the world has already ended and we're all too stupid to notice?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Malike said:

The sky is falling here more than anywhere else when it comes to the Orioles. I'm not surprised either, but I'm not going to pretend that people here are more intelligent.

Correct. OH is largely more intelligent than twitter but there is still the same the sky is falling mentality here and the same over the top reaction when things are going well.

My surprise is that this site is more on the pessimistic side.  I think basically a 50/50 split is more representative of around where I thought it would be.  Right now, it’s 52/48 under with way more votes, so it’s really not much different.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But he's not on pace to go 6-for-104. He's expected to post something like a .800 OPS, so he's on pace to do (whatever he's done so far) and another 70-odd PAs of something much better than that.

Probably semantics, but I don't think 'expected to' and 'on pace for' mean the same thing in context like this.  That being said, I fully understand what you're saying, and I do think that an .800 OPS as a season-long result is more likely than another 1-40 or whatever and a subsequent demotion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Malike said:

The sky is falling here more than anywhere else when it comes to the Orioles. I'm not surprised either, but I'm not going to pretend that people here are more intelligent.

Well, the winning has drawn a less informed fan base imo, but it's still far superior to Twitter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Malike said:

The sky is falling here more than anywhere else when it comes to the Orioles. I'm not surprised either, but I'm not going to pretend that people here are more intelligent.

I didn’t realize that Holliday putting up less than 3 WAR meant that the sky is falling.

Also, I don’t even use twitter and I know that people here are far more intelligent baseball fans.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

Probably semantics, but I don't think 'expected to' and 'on pace for' mean the same thing in context like this.  That being said, I fully understand what you're saying, and I do think that an .800 OPS as a season-long result is more likely than another 1-40 or whatever and a subsequent demotion.

  On pace compares the Past, while Expected to compares hope for the Future.  They are not the same thing.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I abstain. I have no idea what fWAR is

Fangraphs WAR.

Dont feel like hearing CoC cry about not asking what WAR are we talking because you didn’t put the little letter in front of it. (Even though fWAR is the only one I discuss)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Fangraphs WAR.

Dont feel like hearing CoC cry about not asking what WAR are we talking because you didn’t put the little letter in front of it. (Even though fWAR is the only one I discuss)

It's sensible to specify since they are not calculated in the same fashion.

His rWAR is twice as far in the red as his fWAR.

Edited by Can_of_corn
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Posts

    • 1) I don't think it's a bad idea to consider moving on from non-productive vets like Hays and possibly Mullins as well. 2) I'm almost starting to move toward the opinion of re-signing Santander. He is likely not to require a major financial commitment (3/4 years at modest money). And I believe because most of his contributions come from counting stats (homers and RBIs) he is likely to be undervalued in this era of statcast baseball. 3) Elias has never (IMO for good reason) decided to take the approach of multiple/several first timers learning on the job at all at once. The potential for that to go sideways represents too much risk, when you are trying to win a World Series. 4) You didn't just mention moving on from Mullins and Hays. But you also mentioned Santander, O'Hearn, and Mountcastle. That is FIVE regulars and replacing them all with players who have never proven that they can hit Major League pitching. I would almost bet that there aren't 5 first timers in all of MLB who are succeeding this season on their first try. Now obviously, for Holliday next season will be his second try. And I guess 3rd for Stowers, maybe 4th depending how you look at it. And second/third for Kjerstad, Norby (I guess second). Though some of these guys stints were so short, I don't know if they could even get/make much of it some of those previous times. 5) If we make it to the postseason (which we are almost assured to do) win or lose this year in the Fall, it will be a very poor message to send to the fanbase to not spend/add in the offseason. With a payroll this low (ranked what 25th?) you should not be cutting cost and especially with a multi-billionaire owner. 6) If you don't trade any of these players this season, how do you propose that we get better/get the piece(s) that we need? 7) Even with all of these new young players and even if all of them performed right away, where is the pitching going to come from next season in order to legitimately contend (if you don't spend in the offseason)?
    • Nobody thought Toronto would not cash in on their "window". It slammed shut on them and they had a lot of young talent that regressed pretty hard. Cautionary tales are out there.
    • What an odd question. Of course it’s important. The entire baseball world will be paying attention to this series. The two best teams in all baseball, in the same division, each going for a crown at the expense of the other, and neither a big fan of the other. Wins are important regardless of the opponent, but it also goes without saying that we would rather win three out of four against the Yankees, than three out of four against the Athletics, or even other contenders like the Mariners or Guards.  
    • Yeah, too much young talent for that to happen next year, unless some major regression and injuries happen.
    • Mike Elias' job certainly entails doing due diligence on Jack Flaherty again.  
    • even if they do, so what? 
  • Popular Contributors

  • Popular Now

×
×
  • Create New...