Basallo for Miller y/n?

[deward]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is there a study showing that a guy that throws 100-102 is more of a risk than someone that throws 97-99 or 94-96?.

There are plenty of studies tying throwing harder to an increased risk of UCL injury. This article from SI is a bit more readable than some of the medical journals I've found:

https://www.si.com/mlb/2024/04/08/pitcher-injury-epidemic-tommy-john-surgery-velocity

It doesn't specifically answer your question. There seems to be a sharp spike in risk as you get into the mid-90s (keeping in mind that no one is immune, at any velocity), but I can't find anything that delineates between high-90s vs triple digits. Though it seems intuitive that the pressure on the UCL would continue to increase the higher up the chart you go.

[Orioles Jim]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

stunning no-limits catching prospect who can’t even legally drink yet.

 

Basallo may not be allowed to drink yet, but how many have you had so far today? 

If so, hope you’re having a fine day!

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Would Mayo serve as that "in between"?

That one hurts to think about so it's probably a good choice.

I think that Oakland would still want some type of lower minors pitching coming back.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, deward said:

There are plenty of studies tying throwing harder to an increased risk of UCL injury. This article from SI is a bit more readable than some of the medical journals I've found:

https://www.si.com/mlb/2024/04/08/pitcher-injury-epidemic-tommy-john-surgery-velocity

It doesn't specifically answer your question. There seems to be a sharp spike in risk as you get into the mid-90s (keeping in mind that no one is immune, at any velocity), but I can't find anything that delineates between high-90s vs triple digits. Though it seems intuitive that the pressure on the UCL would continue to increase the higher up the chart you go.

I agree that it seem intuitive.

Thanks for the link.

[Gurgi]

Oakland really should trade him since I don't think they are going to try to win till they are in Las Vegas.  It would make little sense to go all out at a AAA stadium for the next three years.  I might see Oakland willing to go for a package of prospects.  

But will Sig let Elias trade any of the blue chips/gold nugget type prospects?

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That one hurts to think about so it's probably a good choice.

I think that Oakland would still want some type of lower minors pitching coming back.

PHI and maybe MIL are the only teams who have top notch minor league pitching (among the contenders) that they can afford to consider parting with. Given injury concerns, I would think the position player prospect holds more value than the pitching prospect. I believe that's why Elias only drafts position players early in the draft.

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

So Basallo's elbow fracture issue isn't a concern going forward but Miller's arm is?

I don't think you get to have both.

You do remember Loewen right?  His stress elbow issues can returning.

 

It's a concern, but not on the level of Miller's arm. I don't claim to be an expert on elbow fractures, but I doubt that would stop him from being a first baseman. Loewen was a pitcher--I don't think that's comparable unless you only use him to point out that elbow fractures can be recurring.

I'm not saying there's zero chance the elbow completely derails Basallo, but I'd put the odds of that well under 10%.

1 hour ago, Philip said:

I don’t think it is easier. That’s why Hader got so much from Houston. He’s fallen off a Cliff, but that just shows his rarity and desirability.

Also, catching is not an offense-first position. A league average hitting catcher who does catching stuff well is more than enough to make a team smile. But a terrible catcher who does all the catching stuff at a high level will also make a team smile. That’s why Castro got 24 million from Minnesota even though he was a below average hitter. So if we give up Basallo, we give up an excellent hitter, but we can find an adequate replacement.

Believes me, I agree it’s a difficult question, but I think it’s worth asking.

I have to admit, I was somewhat wrong about this. I count 7 catchers last year with at least 300 PA and an OPS of .800+. There were 17 first basemen who fit the same criteria.

I'm having a harder time defining elite closer, but 7 is a pretty reasonable number. Maybe Bednar, Williams, Hader, Bautista, Phillips, Iglesias, Duran?

That said, I'm still not trading Basallo for Miller. We're going to be good for a decade--we don't need to commit to that level this year. I also have far more faith that Elias can find us a good reliever on the scrap heap than a catcher.

Edited May 1 by ChosenOne21

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

Oakland really should trade him since I don't think they are going to try to win till they are in Las Vegas.  It would make little sense to go all out at a AAA stadium for the next three years.  I might see Oakland willing to go for a package of prospects.  

But will Sig let Elias trade any of the blue chips/gold nugget type prospects?

Sig is #2, Elias is #1. Elias does not answer to Sig, it's the other way around.

But I agree with your perspective on OAK. They are likely to be motivated in desiring to trade Miller. They are currently not good enough to win even with his dominance. His dominance/effectiveness is keeping their record propped up and preventing them from bottoming out. And they know that he is likely to get injured at some point. They don't want to be caught holding on to him for too long.

[Just Regular]

54 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

No way.  I'm not against getting Miller and would love to have him on the team.  But Basallo is too high of a price for pretty much ANY reliever, straight up.

For a certain type of baseball nerd, Luhnow's Astros grabbing Yordan Alvarez from Friedman's Dodgers for reliever rental Josh Fields is a famous transaction.

I'd bet Sig has stories of the Astros getting insights from Yordan batted ball data the 12 minutes he was a Dodger.

I was reminded recently LAD once had Oneil Cruz too....they aren't perfect.     They once had Dean Kremer too!

Josh Fields did pitch reasonably well for the Dodgers a couple of falls.

[Billy F-Face3]

2 hours ago, Punchandjudy said:

I like Miller a lot but not in a million years.

My sentiments exactly.

[Explosivo]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

Would you do that? A simple one for one?

I keep bouncing back and forth: a “exactly as designed” reliever, capable of at least a four out save, but only throwing 60 innings a season, with TJ forever looming on next week’s schedule, vs a stunning no-limits catching prospect who can’t even legally drink yet.

But who do we need NOW?

I think Oakland would do that trade, because Basallo’s clock can reasonably be delayed until 26, so his early years won’t be wasted.

What do you guys think?

#@$% no. Jesus guys. 

[Billy F-Face3]

It boggles my mind how some people are willing to over pay and give away the entire farm for pennies on the dollar.

[sportsfan8703]

42 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

It's a concern, but not on the level of Miller's arm. I don't claim to be an expert on elbow fractures, but I doubt that would stop him from being a first baseman. Loewen was a pitcher--I don't think that's comparable unless you only use him to point out that elbow fractures can be recurring.

I'm not saying there's zero chance the elbow completely derails Basallo, but I'd put the odds of that well under 10%.

I have to admit, I was somewhat wrong about this. I count 7 catchers last year with at least 300 PA and an OPS of .800+. There were 17 first basemen who fit the same criteria.

I'm having a harder time defining elite closer, but 7 is a pretty reasonable number. Maybe Bednar, Williams, Hader, Bautista, Phillips, Iglesias, Duran?

That said, I'm still not trading Basallo for Miller. We're going to be good for a decade--we don't need to commit to that level this year. I also have far more faith that Elias can find us a good reliever on the scrap heap than a catcher.

I agree with all of this.  However, if we sign Adley to an extension then that makes Basallo a tad less valuable.  Not that he isn't an uber prospect.  Also, like you said we're going to be good for a decade.  Ok, well we'd have miller for next 6 postseasons.  He would pair with Cano for 5 of those, and Bautista for 4.  With our offense that is a good recipe to win a WS.  

I think we're all blown away by Mason Miller and 103.  It makes us miss Bautista.  We're just going to have to see who all is available at the deadline.  

[Explosivo]

10 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

It boggles my mind how some people are willing to over pay and give away the entire farm for pennies on the dollar.

It’s upsetting to me really. Either they are knee jerk reaction types or they have no concept of what they have. I’m not sure which is worse, but it’s upsetting all the same.

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

It boggles my mind how some people are willing to over pay and give away the entire farm for pennies on the dollar.

But that's the thing. The Orioles have so much positional player talent. That there is no such trade that can be realistically constructed where they could "give away the entire farm". Basallo is not the entire farm. And it is also likely that there is not a place on the team for all of Kjerstad, Mayo, and Basallo.

I know some posters believe that Mayo is the 3B long term (I myself doubt that given how good Westburg is on both sides of the ball). But even if Mayo does take 3B, what happens to Westburg? Do you move him to 2B permanently? Then what happens when Holliday is ready to return?

Yes Santander will be gone at season's end, so there's an open spot there for 2025. And we could decline O'Hearn's option for next season to create another open spot in 2025. But we have 3 guys (Kjerstad, Mayo, and Basallo) for 2 spots in 2025 and beyond. Unless you want to get rid of Mountcastle, which I don't see why you would. He can hit and field. I don't think either Kjerstad or Mayo will be able to pick it at 1B like Mountcastle.

Bottom line is, we now have too many position players for any place to play them. 

I'm not saying that we have to or even should trade Basallo for Miller. I would prefer getting him for less if possible. But I wouldn't be against the trade either. This year we have a legit shot at a WS and only one legit hole on the team (back end/high leverage reliever/closer). I would hate to miss our shot in 2024. You only get so many.

If one of Basallo, Kjerstad, Mayo were to be traded. Our offense would still be elite both now and into the projectable future. However, if we don't get the one last piece to the championship puzzle this year, we could be missing out on a parade.