It’s a slump. It happens. Some thoughts.

[eddie83]

49 runs last 13 games. Bound to happen. 3.77 rpg. That said club has gone 9-4. 
 

I will say you can see some things taking shape as we go along. 
 

-Holliday would fit perfect on the club. Mateo is hitting well vs LHP. He was solid last year. Can play Holliday here and there vs LHP but would make sense to platoon them. No I’m not advocating they rush him back now but you can limit his exposure as long as Mateo keeps playing well. Hopefully another month to 6 weeks he is ready to go. 
 

- O’Hearn keeps hitting. Makes sense to start McCann mainly vs LHP. That way when Adley doesn’t start it’s vs LHP and he can DH. If you DH Adley vs a RHP that means O’Hearn has to play OF which lessens his value. 
 

-Cowser is struggling some but not to the extent some are saying. That said Hays is going to play and not that he is a big splits guy but it makes sense to sit Cowser some vs LHP. 
 

- I still think Mayo makes sense as a late season call up mainly to DH vs LHP. Adley will be catching most of the big games late in year and obviously in playoffs. If the club is fortunate to have big lead in September than the kid can get even more at bats. I can see a scenario where vs a LHP in playoffs he is in the starting lineup at DH. 

- Issue with Mullins is who plays CF in his place? We have nobody. Sure you can play Hays or Cowser there here and and there but not regular. He is a proven player and if rest of lineup does what they are capable of can afford to give him some time. Would not shock me to see Elias acquire a Michael Taylor type at deadline. 

I like our lineup but we haven’t been walking much. Kinda odd. Not like it hasn’t worked but something to follow. Overall I’m not worried. Part of sport. 

[Frobby]

I think the club consciously took a very aggressive approach early in the season but now we’re not making life difficult for opposing pitchers.  We need to get back to being more patient.  

I’m ready to see some of Hays.  Mullins and Cowser haven’t hit a lick over several weeks, and have been terrible in key situations.  Hays looked awful until just before his injury but let’s get him in some games and see if he’s ready to contribute.  Stowers too.
 

 

[LGOrioles]

Bright spots:

- Gunnar, Adley, Westburg, and O’Hearn are legit. Mountcastle is a solid 1B with his ROS projections (~120 wRC+ although higher would obviously be nice). That’s 5 well above average hitters to put in the lineup most days 

- The rotation with a healthy Bradish and Rodriguez is going to be really good 

 

Concerns/Questions:

- Mateo or Urias can’t be starting come playoff time against RHP’s. Will Holliday be ready and if not, what does Elias do?

- How does Elias address the back end of the bullpen? 

- What happens in the OF? Does Cowser make adjustments? What do they do if Mullins continues to struggle? How does Hays fit in and does he hit better than he has dating back to the 2nd half of last year? 
 

I think overall, there seems to be a consensus on their needs right now. Back end relief help and another infielder, which should come externally (pieces not on the 26 man right now). I feel pretty confident Elias will sort that out.

The outfield question is a little more interesting to me because if Mullins continues struggling, Elias needs to make a trade. He’s been worth 0.3 WAR in 100 games with a 69 wRC+ since June 1st of last year. And Hays is at 0.4 WAR in 113 games with an 86 wRC+ in that same timeframe. Neither has been a quality player the past year, let alone starting caliber on a team with World Series aspirations. And then you have Cowser who has been scuffling of late. Ideally, Cowser makes adjustments at the plate and Cedric hits at anything close to league average and you’re fine. But if not, it’ll be interesting to see what happens. 

Edited May 14 by LGOrioles

[Brooks The Great]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

49 runs last 13 games. Bound to happen. 3.77 rpg. That said club has gone 9-4. 
 

I will say you can see some things taking shape as we go along. 
 

-Holliday would fit perfect on the club. Mateo is hitting well vs LHP. He was solid last year. Can play Holliday here and there vs LHP but would make sense to platoon them. No I’m not advocating they rush him back now but you can limit his exposure as long as Mateo keeps playing well. Hopefully another month to 6 weeks he is ready to go. 

I don't understand how you can say that Mateo has been playing well. He has a .288 OBP, which is putrid, and one of the contributing reasons this team is mostly producing its offense with solo home runs.

Mateo's SLG and OPS are inflated due to 2 solo home runs - power is not part of his game, given his first home run was his first non-inside-the-park home run in over a year. So he remains what he's always been with the Orioles - one of the worst hitters in MLB. 

His defense has been fine at 2B. But playing him, as always, requires gold glove defense to make up for the terrible bat.

I'd much rather call up Mayo to play 3B and have Westburg at 2B every day. Or just roll with Urias at 3B instead of Mateo at 2B. 

Edited May 14 by Brooks The Great

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, LGOrioles said:

 

The outfield question is a little more interesting to me because if Mullins continues struggling, Elias needs to make a trade. He’s been worth 0.3 WAR in 100 games with a 69 wRC+ since June 1st of last year.

I didn't think this would be a possibility at the beginning of the season, but Elias might very well end up shopping for a veteran outfielder that can hit. Mullins and Hays have struggling at the plate since July 2023. Cowser has fallen off a cliff after his red hot start and hasn't adjusted yet to pitchers throwing him more breaking pitches.

While the Orioles have young prospects who have promise. You can't expect them to step up this year to be a major reason this team makes a deep playoff run. Maybe Cowser or Kjerstad answers the call, but I think this team would benefit from an established veteran if Mullins/Hays continue to not hit.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

I don't understand how you can say that Mateo has been playing well. He has a .288 OBP, which is putrid, and one of the contributing reasons this team is mostly producing its offense with solo home runs.

Mateo's SLG and OPS are inflated due to 2 solo home runs - power is not part of his game, given his first home run was his first non-inside-the-park home run in over a year. So he remains what he's always been with the Orioles - one of the worst hitters in MLB. 

His defense has been fine at 2B. But playing him, as always, requires gold glove defense to make up for the terrible bat.

I'd much rather call up Mayo to play 3B and have Westburg at 2B every day. Or just roll with Urias at 3B instead of Mateo at 2B. 

I’d say Mateo has been playing well compared to expectations for him.  You can say his SLG is “inflated,” but it is what it is.  And his defense has been way better than “fine” of late.  He’s playing a stellar 2B.  He’s our best defensive 2B and it isn’t close.  Going into tonight’s game he’d been worth 0.7 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR in 25 games.  Hard to argue that’s not playing well.  

[scottbbfm]

You are right, slumps happen and things will be fine   

I still think it’s time to give Mayo a look.  The guy can rake - play Westy at 2nd….Urias isn’t bringing much special to the table.   The problem with that is dropping Urias likely isn’t reversible. And we know Elias doesn’t like that.  

[EddeeEddee]

A few of us were arguing in the offseason this team needed an extra outfielder, mainly a centerfielder, in case Mullins or someone else struggled or got hurt again like last season.  

Gunnar, Adley and Westburg have settled in nicely, but it appears we can't expect all the young guys to adjust so well.  Cowser was great for awhile but has shown himself to have some large growing pains the past few weeks.  Meanwhile, the veterans in the outfield have all had their struggles. 

Aaron Hicks played unexpectedly well last season, and a veteran presence out there in lieu of Mullins slumping badly is maybe what this team needs.  Hopefully that's all this team needs out there this season.

 

[Bemorewins]

9 hours ago, eddie83 said:

49 runs last 13 games. Bound to happen. 3.77 rpg. That said club has gone 9-4. 
 

I will say you can see some things taking shape as we go along. 
 

-Holliday would fit perfect on the club. Mateo is hitting well vs LHP. He was solid last year. Can play Holliday here and there vs LHP but would make sense to platoon them. No I’m not advocating they rush him back now but you can limit his exposure as long as Mateo keeps playing well. Hopefully another month to 6 weeks he is ready to go. 
 

- O’Hearn keeps hitting. Makes sense to start McCann mainly vs LHP. That way when Adley doesn’t start it’s vs LHP and he can DH. If you DH Adley vs a RHP that means O’Hearn has to play OF which lessens his value. 
 

-Cowser is struggling some but not to the extent some are saying. That said Hays is going to play and not that he is a big splits guy but it makes sense to sit Cowser some vs LHP. 
 

- I still think Mayo makes sense as a late season call up mainly to DH vs LHP. Adley will be catching most of the big games late in year and obviously in playoffs. If the club is fortunate to have big lead in September than the kid can get even more at bats. I can see a scenario where vs a LHP in playoffs he is in the starting lineup at DH. 

- Issue with Mullins is who plays CF in his place? We have nobody. Sure you can play Hays or Cowser there here and and there but not regular. He is a proven player and if rest of lineup does what they are capable of can afford to give him some time. Would not shock me to see Elias acquire a Michael Taylor type at deadline. 

I like our lineup but we haven’t been walking much. Kinda odd. Not like it hasn’t worked but something to follow. Overall I’m not worried. Part of sport. 

I agree with you in that team slumps happen over the course of a long 162 game season.

However, I don't agree with the premise that either of those young guys (Holliday or Mayo) are likely to be a solution. We have seen on multiple occasions that it takes mostly all young players/prospects some time to figure out things at the Big League level/adjustment to the jump in competition. Almost all of them struggle out of the gate. IMO the problem with inserting an acclimating player to an already struggling/slumping lineup is that it only exacerbates the problem.

IMO we need a few of the guys to get it going before we add any more young guys trying to figure things out. You're words about Cowser seem to indicate that his struggles aren't that bad, but since the middle of last month he hasn't gotten many positive results. And any time he hits in big spots, it's almost been an automatic out and most of the times it has been a strikeout. When he's at bat right now with men on base and the game is late & close, it is more of a benefit for the opponent than it is for the O's right now (regardless of the pitcher that he is facing).

[sportsfan8703]

Just a slump.  @Frobby is right though, we need to be a bit more patient. 

The infamous “two game losing streak”. We’re ok. Just relax. 

[Mooreisbetter27]

8 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

I don't understand how you can say that Mateo has been playing well. He has a .288 OBP, which is putrid, and one of the contributing reasons this team is mostly producing its offense with solo home runs.

Mateo's SLG and OPS are inflated due to 2 solo home runs - power is not part of his game, given his first home run was his first non-inside-the-park home run in over a year. So he remains what he's always been with the Orioles - one of the worst hitters in MLB. 

His defense has been fine at 2B. But playing him, as always, requires gold glove defense to make up for the terrible bat.

I'd much rather call up Mayo to play 3B and have Westburg at 2B every day. Or just roll with Urias at 3B instead of Mateo at 2B. 

If hitting is what you're concerned of, the bolded makes no sense.  Mateo is light speed faster than Urias, has been hitting better (Urias has been a black hole) and has been playing better defense.  Urias over Mateo makes zero sense. 

[interloper]

Jays bullpen: one of the worst in the game.

Our offensive approach: be super aggressive on their ace so that we don't chase him from the game and face their only 2 good bullpen pieces.

Great plan out there guys. Jesus. 

Yes I'm just cranky and frustrated and yes things will be fine, but man, just a terrible gameplan last night. 

Edited May 14 by interloper

[eddie83]

6 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

I don't understand how you can say that Mateo has been playing well. He has a .288 OBP, which is putrid, and one of the contributing reasons this team is mostly producing its offense with solo home runs.

Mateo's SLG and OPS are inflated due to 2 solo home runs - power is not part of his game, given his first home run was his first non-inside-the-park home run in over a year. So he remains what he's always been with the Orioles - one of the worst hitters in MLB. 

His defense has been fine at 2B. But playing him, as always, requires gold glove defense to make up for the terrible bat.

I'd much rather call up Mayo to play 3B and have Westburg at 2B every day. Or just roll with Urias at 3B instead of Mateo at 2B. 

Mateo has a .931 OPS vs LHP. Last year it was .746. He can play SS and even some OF.  More than fine for a platoon tyoe player. 
 

Mayo is does not have a good glove at 3rd. I like Urias but he hasn’t been hitting. 

[eddie83]

22 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I agree with you in that team slumps happen over the course of a long 162 game season.

However, I don't agree with the premise that either of those young guys (Holliday or Mayo) are likely to be a solution. We have seen on multiple occasions that it takes mostly all young players/prospects some time to figure out things at the Big League level/adjustment to the jump in competition. Almost all of them struggle out of the gate. IMO the problem with inserting an acclimating player to an already struggling/slumping lineup is that it only exacerbates the problem.

IMO we need a few of the guys to get it going before we add any more young guys trying to figure things out. You're words about Cowser seem to indicate that his struggles aren't that bad, but since the middle of last month he hasn't gotten many positive results. And any time he hits in big spots, it's almost been an automatic out and most of the times it has been a strikeout. When he's at bat right now with men on base and the game is late & close, it is more of a benefit for the opponent than it is for the O's right now (regardless of the pitcher that he is facing).

Holliday is a number 1 prospect for a reason. He doesn’t have to carry the team, just contribute. I don’t think it’s crazy to think he can be productive as a platoon 2nd basemen. Elite skill set. I also said I think it will be some time before he is back.  
 

Mayo I said I can see being a late season RHH DH. Hitting young guys at the bottom of the order in roles to maximize their talents. Lengthens the lineup. 
 

Cowser has had issues lately but once again he doesn’t need to carry the team. Unlike last year his glove has been good. 
 

This team has real good depth. I think that will help them avoid long hitting slumps. 

[Brooks The Great]

31 minutes ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

If hitting is what you're concerned of, the bolded makes no sense.  Mateo is light speed faster than Urias, has been hitting better (Urias has been a black hole) and has been playing better defense.  Urias over Mateo makes zero sense. 

Urias has a proven track record of good defense at 3B and as a much better hitter than Mateo. That's why it's better for the team to play Urias instead of buying into the mirage of another "hot" start by Mateo. Mateo is still the same bad player he's always been.

Ultimately, I prefer calling up Mayo after Super 2 passes. Until then, I'd rather see Urias in the lineup. Everyone is getting fooled into thinking Mateo has played well. He hasn't, he's just been lucky running into a couple home runs. That's not sustainable, and it's foolish to believe that Mateo is anything else other than the player he's shown himself to be since 2022. 

 

Edited May 14 by Brooks The Great