Felix Bautista 2024 (Monitoring his injury rehab)

[interloper]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

Let’s not forget we just had Means with a failed procedure by the same surgeon.   Meister basically does everyone’s surgery now, but the point still stands and I am not aware of anything that says more rest is bad.  September would be less than a year which is pretty fast. 

I do sort of wonder... just for fun, let's do some wild hypotheticals.

Let's say Felix is feeling 100%. Let's say it's mid-August, the O's are on track for the playoffs, but didn't end up securing a late-inning reliever for whatever reason. Let's say they tell him to let it rip for a few "bullpens" and his velocity is there and he bounces back fine. 

Now, let's say they run the risk analysis and they determine that letting him throw ML innings in Sept/Oct would, at worst, risk a strain (as opposed to a full-on tear), and wouldn't put the actual surgery at risk. (Something that I'm not sure anyone really truly knows). 

Would they roll the dice for the chance at a WS?

Almost certainly not. Lol. 

But it's fun to think about. 

[baltfan]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't like the assumption that the doctor in question was at fault.

Which is how i took the earlier comment about it being the same doctor.

I noted that he does all of the surgeries and almost all of them last longer than Means.  Not sure how you were getting that I was saying it was the doctor when I was talking about the relation between how quickly you come back and possible injury.  More the point is that Means was out more than a year, had the same surgeon, and blew out quickly.  Might not be wise to bring Bautista faster. 

[BRobinsonfan]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

If you set that bar any lower it would be underground. 

Tommy John surgery is 84% successful.  Expressed in other terms, it doesn't work 16% of the time.  Means was one of the unlucky ones.   

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

Tommy John surgery is 84% successful.  Expressed in other terms, it doesn't work 16% of the time.  Means was one of the unlucky ones.   

How do they determine successful?    How long do you have to come back and pitch in competition for it to be considered a success?

[baltfan]

8 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

Tommy John surgery is 84% successful.  Expressed in other terms, it doesn't work 16% of the time.  Means was one of the unlucky ones.   

That rate is for return to play, not blowing out again within months of being a full go 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, baltfan said:

That rate is for return to play, not blowing out again within months of being a full go 

Which is why I say it was successful and he was just unlucky.

[BRobinsonfan]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

How do they determine successful?    How long do you have to come back and pitch in competition for it to be considered a success?

"Of 147 pitchers included, 80% returned to pitch in at least 1 Major League Baseball game. Only 67% of established pitchers returned to the same level of competition postoperatively, and 57% of established players returned to the disabled list because of injuries to the throwing arm."   https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24705898/

[OnlyOneOriole]

Watching today's game reminds me of last year.  I said it last year in real time to my wife while watching it, and mentioned it on here shortly thereafter.....but when Felix was pitching in last years All Star game and was huffing and puffing and struggling so much? And the AL manager at the time kept leaving him in?   I said that he is over throwing and this scenario is a prime example of how you get a TJ injury.

Sure enough it came on soon after. 

 

Nothing that can be said can change my mind.   That game was the catalyst  of his injury.

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Watching today's game reminds me of last year.  I said it last year in real time to my wife while watching it, and mentioned it on here shortly thereafter.....but when Felix was pitching in last years All Star game and was huffing and puffing and struggling so much? And the AL manager at the time kept leaving him in?   I said that he is over throwing and this scenario is a prime example of how you get a TJ injury.

Sure enough it came on soon after. 

 

Nothing that can be said can change my mind.   That game was the catalyst  of his injury.

Nobody can prove you wrong, and you can’t prove you’re right.   He threw 28 pitches in that game, and he threw at least that many 8 other times, going as high as 35.   Was this game more stressful than those?  Maybe.  Maybe not.

[baltfan]

On 6/7/2024 at 9:20 PM, BRobinsonfan said:

"Of 147 pitchers included, 80% returned to pitch in at least 1 Major League Baseball game. Only 67% of established pitchers returned to the same level of competition postoperatively, and 57% of established players returned to the disabled list because of injuries to the throwing arm."   https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24705898/

Goo article, but I will note it is only through cases through 2011.  I can’t say for sure that results have gotten better, but I imagine they haven’t gotten worse 

[Rbiggs2525]

2 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Watching today's game reminds me of last year.  I said it last year in real time to my wife while watching it, and mentioned it on here shortly thereafter.....but when Felix was pitching in last years All Star game and was huffing and puffing and struggling so much? And the AL manager at the time kept leaving him in?   I said that he is over throwing and this scenario is a prime example of how you get a TJ injury.

Sure enough it came on soon after. 

 

Nothing that can be said can change my mind.   That game was the catalyst  of his injury.

Whether this I right or wrong I do think pitchers should be capped at 20 pitches for ASG. It’s an exhibition and I’m sure ESPN doesn’t mind having another commercial break. 

[sportsfan8703]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Nobody can prove you wrong, and you can’t prove you’re right.   He threw 28 pitches in that game, and he threw at least that many 8 other times, going as high as 35.   Was this game more stressful than those?  Maybe.  Maybe not.

28 pitches wasn’t good. I had forgotten it was that many. 

We rode Bautista hard last year. It would make a lot of sense to bring Kimbrel back next year and have Bautista have some strict limitations in the regular season. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

Nobody can prove you wrong, and you can’t prove you’re right.   He threw 28 pitches in that game, and he threw at least that many 8 other times, going as high as 35.   Was this game more stressful than those?  Maybe.  Maybe not.

He was struggling.  We could all see that.  And I don't just mean because he couldn't hit the strike zone.  To me he looked somewhat in distress.  And when that happens....injuries happen.   He was huffing and puffing. Sweating a lot.  Walking around.  He in no way looked comfortable. 

And 28 pitches?  In one inning?  For a reliever/closer of all things?  At an all star game when he is clearly off?  I thought it was completely ridiculous.   I couldn't believe when the manager left him in the game.  Stunned. 

Edited July 17 by OnlyOneOriole

[Aristotelian]

I really dislike having a mid season exhibition game when players are at risk of injury. I did not watch the game but I agree 28 pitches is a lot. Still, he pitched for another full month and a half after that, so I think it is pretty hard to infer direct causation. If you want to say it contributed to the stress on his arm, sure, but so did the frequent back-to-backs and multi-inning appearances. 

[Just Regular]

18 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Whether this I right or wrong I do think pitchers should be capped at 20 pitches for ASG. It’s an exhibition and I’m sure ESPN doesn’t mind having another commercial break. 

They could use the Trajekt pitching machine in the game for pitches 21 onwards!     The human pitcher stands next to his robotic counterpart for fielding.

October miracle watch - in 2023 Liam Hendriks had his TJ 2 months and 7 days before Felix, and is throwing bullpens now.    He could be a factor for the Red Sox if they make the tournament.

The 2024 World Series begins about 12.5 months after Felix's procedure.    12.5 months from Hendriks' procedure is about August 17th.