If you were looking to extend Burnes, what would be the max contract offer?

[Greg Pappas]

I'm not anticipating the O's trying to outbid other teams for Burnes this off-season, nor extending him beforehand.  However, if Elias/Rubenstein were inclined to do so, what offer do you think would be our max offer?  How far would you personally go?

[Moose Milligan]

I don't know if I'd want to extend him.

Really all depends on how he transitions from being a power pitcher to more of a finesse guy.  Personally, I think he will do that just fine, by all accounts he's an exceptionally hard worker and dedicated to his craft.  I'm just not sure if I want to pay him over 100 million or so to find out.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

I’d extend him but not for a deal he would accept.

Edited May 20 by Sports Guy

[wildcard]

After the O's win the World Series with Burnes as their ace:   It will take 7/280m.   The O's will not bid.  No use to bid if they are not willing to offer that number.

But they will extend Means.   GRod, Bradish, Means, Irvin, Kremer, Povich in 2025.

[clapdiddy]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't know if I'd want to extend him.

Really all depends on how he transitions from being a power pitcher to more of a finesse guy.  Personally, I think he will do that just fine, by all accounts he's an exceptionally hard worker and dedicated to his craft.  I'm just not sure if I want to pay him over 100 million or so to find out.

 

 

I'm with you.  I'm truly hoping he leads the O's to a World Championship this year, but I don't want to sign him for the deal he's going to get elsewhere.  

I'm happy with a trophy and a draft pick for next year.

[DirtyBird]

1 year, $40 million 

[Spy Fox]

If he's gettable for the 4-5 year, high AAV type deal, I'm all over it. If he's gettable for the 7/200-225 range, a common contract for ace types over the years, I'm still  interested. 

But he could be in position to command something closer to the Cole and Yamamoto 9+/300M+ deals. At that point, it's probably too much risk for me. And too much extension of that risk and cost onto the years that Adley/Gunnar and others are either gone, or on expensive contracts themselves. 

[dystopia]

Would he go for 5/$175?

[Moose Milligan]

8 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

If he's gettable for the 4-5 year, high AAV type deal, I'm all over it. If he's gettable for the 7/200-225 range, a common contract for ace types over the years, I'm still  interested. 

But he could be in position to command something closer to the Cole and Yamamoto 9+/300M+ deals. At that point, it's probably too much risk for me. And too much extension of that risk and cost onto the years that Adley/Gunnar and others are either gone, or on expensive contracts themselves. 

Yeah, I wouldn't go past 4 years.  If you have to have a 5th year option in there, fine.  

I like that he's built like a brick $%^!house.  Probably doesn't help prevent from injuries but in my mind it does. 

[Billy F-Face3]

10 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

If he's gettable for the 4-5 year, high AAV type deal, I'm all over it. If he's gettable for the 7/200-225 range, a common contract for ace types over the years, I'm still  interested. 

But he could be in position to command something closer to the Cole and Yamamoto 9+/300M+ deals. At that point, it's probably too much risk for me. And too much extension of that risk and cost onto the years that Adley/Gunnar and others are either gone, or on expensive contracts themselves. 

I think this is the correct take.

As for other people who say the Orioles won't even make an offer, that is preposterous for several reasons...

1. The Orioles traded good prospects to get him on 1 year of team control. They must have some hope of being able to court him into liking it here, and hope of the new owners trying to resign him.

2. They invested good prospects to get him. They aren't just going to throw that investment away and just roll over without even trying to resign him.

3. The Orioles even tried to resign Aaron Hicks. They also tendered players (like Ryan McKenna and others) who many thought were on the roster bubble of being cut. Clearly the front office believes in making offers to retain players.

 

All this negativity about not even trying is annoying. Mostly because it's not even based in reality.

[Satyr3206]

He'll get between 30-35 mil a year at minimum. The length of the Contract is the issue, like everyone has said. My max would be 5 years. Probably not enough.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Would he go for 5/$175?

If it’s the best offer he would..but it likely won’t be close to the best offer.

[Since1984]

$150m 5 year base with 2 incentive yr extensions that could make it 7 year $225m total.

[Spy Fox]

16 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, I wouldn't go past 4 years.  If you have to have a 5th year option in there, fine.  

I like that he's built like a brick $%^!house.  Probably doesn't help prevent from injuries but in my mind it does. 

I'm still comfortable in the 5-6 year range. This is a window for a dynasty, and Burnes is the top guy available who can help us in that mission. Besides Soto, who is even more guaranteed to be priced out of O's territory. 

Of course it all depends on what payrolls Rubenstein is comfortable forecasting. And how much of those payrolls might be going to extensions. Both of which we can only guess at as of now. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

The ZiPS projection is 8 years, $210 million. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-sign-some-contracts-2024-edition/

No way he agrees to less than $30M AAV, so assuming he stays healthy and effective I think the floor for his contract is 7/210 or 8/240. 

Would I do that? Entirely depends on what kind of payroll Rubenstein is willing to run. But the Orioles have zero long term payroll obligations and really only need frontline starting pitching. They are in a World Series window right now. If they can afford a mega free agent contract and stomach the risk of giving one to a 30+ SP, he’s as good a candidate that can come along. 

Of course, a big market team might end up offering him closer to $300M+ in the neighborhood of the Cole and Yamamoto deals. I don’t think the Orioles can or should do that.