The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Bemorewins]

47 minutes ago, OsFanInOhio said:

I’m not saying we can’t trade for Scott. Or that we shouldn’t trade for someone. More that we basically already have one reliever we don’t have to trade for. But a guy who will likely have a relatively high whip due to command issues but have a well above average k rate…

I also just don’t love rentals in general. Hit or miss as to whether they perform well anyway (hey jack flaherty) and then it’s gone. If you don’t win that year it’s all for nothing. For the right cost I’m okay with it, but I don’t want to give up a major prospect for a rental unless it’s the piece that puts us over the top 

The high WHIP and walk rate will not play at this level. That's not a high leverage reliever at the Major League level and that is what we need.

Jack Flaherty wasn't performing well before he was traded to the Orioles. I had little reason to believe that he would magically become the type of front line starting pitcher that we need just because he switched the color of his uniform. Now this year's Flaherty, well that's a different story.

We gave up a good prospect in Joey Ortiz and we got one of the best starting pitcher's in the sport. Were you okay with that?  

[24fps]

1 hour ago, casadeozo said:

Let’s be clear. He’s pitching like an ace THIS YEAR.

this is his first year in mlb and he was considered a back end starter when he was signed.  No one rational would say a 2.5 month performance in your first year in MLB requires the number one prospect in baseball PLUS MORE!

Respectfully it’s lunacy.

It's hard to see the downside for the Cubs if they ask for the moon then keep Imanaga if nobody bites.

[OnlyOneOriole]

4 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

You've made your feelings very known about Holliday. But you know in your heart and based on Elias' track record that there is almost zero chance that the Orioles trade him.

Probably.  I agree. 

[casadeozo]

24 minutes ago, 24fps said:

It's hard to see the downside for the Cubs if they ask for the moon then keep Imanaga if nobody bites.

100%

There just aren’t that many foolish GMs like there used to be (Bedard trade etc). Teams have a deep brain trust they covet to prevent getting fleeced like the Chris Archer trade.

[OnlyOneOriole]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

What do you think the price of a young cost controlled ace is?  How much would you want in return for Gray Rod?  Imanaga has 4 1/2 years left on his contract at around $60 million.  There is 2 options in his contract so there is a variable cost between $50 and 60 million.  Jackson and Kjerstad might be more than I would want to give up, but the O's aren't getting an ace for spare parts or paying market rates for an ace. 

That's another bingo.

[OsFanInOhio]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

The high WHIP and walk rate will not play at this level. That's not a high leverage reliever at the Major League level and that is what we need.

Jack Flaherty wasn't performing well before he was traded to the Orioles. I had little reason to believe that he would magically become the type of front line starting pitcher that we need just because he switched the color of his uniform. Now this year's Flaherty, well that's a different story.

We gave up a good prospect in Joey Ortiz and we got one of the best starting pitcher's in the sport. Were you okay with that?  

1) Jack flaherty had like 5 or 6 good starts in a row before we traded for him. His overall era wasn’t great, but the month or so before he had been pitching much better. 
 

2) whip plays a bit better as a reliever if it’s walks and high k rate when they are less worried about managing pitch count over 5+ innings. It’s not ideal but it plays better out of the pen (see dl hall)

3) Burnes is a top 5 pitcher in baseball, and we got him for a full season. Tanner Scott is nowhere near a top 5 reliever and we’d probably get him for 2 months. 
 

if we got Scott for a package like what we gave up for flaherty or a bit better, I’m fine with it. Norby if we are convinced that is the reliever that gets us over the hump. But I’m not sure Scott is that guy, or that we are one reliever away (especially if bradish is out). 

[24fps]

I'm completely fine with Irvin and Kremer as numbers 4 and 5, but not so much as 3 and 4, Suarez and Povich are great as depth and stopgaps for the next few weeks.  A #3 starter is a clear need if Bradish is gone for the rest of the year.  Fortunately there's enough time before the trade deadline figure that out, but I'm not optimistic about his prospects.  It's a pipe dream to think that the O's are in the driver's seat at the moment, so personally, I'm looking for the best starter I can find that doesn't cost Holliday, Mayo and Basallo at the MiL level and Westburg, Henderson, Rodriguez, Cowser and Rutchman at the ML level.

Being a player in the post season is going to be expensive, but the future for the O's is now and it's no secret.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 minute ago, 24fps said:

I'm completely fine with Irvin and Kremer as numbers 4 and 5, but not so much as 3 and 4, Suarez and Povich are great as depth and stopgaps for the next few weeks.  A #3 starter is a clear need if Bradish is gone for the rest of the year.  Fortunately there's enough time before the trade deadline figure that out, but I'm not optimistic about his prospects.  It's a pipe dream to think that the O's are in the driver's seat at the moment, so personally, I'm looking for the best starter I can find that doesn't cost Holliday, Mayo and Basallo at the MiL level and Westburg, Henderson, Rodriguez, Cowser and Rutchman at the ML level.

Being a player in the post season is going to be expensive, but the future for the O's is now and it's no secret.

I'm cautiously optimistic about Suarez and amazed that the O's somehow converted a NPB pitcher who hadn't pitched in the majors in 7 years into an effective MLB starter.  I'm afraid that he could revert at any time.  Povich seems to have a slim line between being effective and getting hammered.  1 more injury to the starting rotation and we could be looking at someone like Zimmermann every 5th game.   I agree, need to get some kind of middle of rotation starter.  Please no Flaherty types, I'd rather go with what we have.

[Bemorewins]

17 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I'm completely fine with Irvin and Kremer as numbers 4 and 5, but not so much as 3 and 4, Suarez and Povich are great as depth and stopgaps for the next few weeks.  A #3 starter is a clear need if Bradish is gone for the rest of the year.  Fortunately there's enough time before the trade deadline figure that out, but I'm not optimistic about his prospects.  It's a pipe dream to think that the O's are in the driver's seat at the moment, so personally, I'm looking for the best starter I can find that doesn't cost Holliday, Mayo and Basallo at the MiL level and Westburg, Henderson, Rodriguez, Cowser and Rutchman at the ML level.

Being a player in the post season is going to be expensive, but the future for the O's is now and it's no secret.

Like who is even entertaining Henderson, Westburg, Rutschman or Rodriguez? Nobody’s asking for that and the Orioles are not even holding discussion regarding their best players. Would the Yankees consider trading away Judge? The Dodgers Betts? The Phillies Harper?

In reality the cost is going to be prospects. Obviously Holliday is almost certainly off the table. But one of our other top 3 may be what a #2/3 pitcher cost. 

[Allan Bryant]

21 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I'm cautiously optimistic about Suarez and amazed that the O's somehow converted a NPB pitcher who hadn't pitched in the majors in 7 years into an effective MLB starter.  I'm afraid that he could revert at any time.  Povich seems to have a slim line between being effective and getting hammered.  1 more injury to the starting rotation and we could be looking at someone like Zimmermann every 5th game.   I agree, need to get some kind of middle of rotation starter.  Please no Flaherty types, I'd rather go with what we have.

Keep Zimmerman down at Norfolk please .  I already posted about Flaherty ( don’t want him here again) . And Scott ?   He is the reincarnation of Don Standhouse , ( keep him away too ) . 

[24fps]

48 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Like who is even entertaining Henderson, Westburg, Rutschman or Rodriguez? Nobody’s asking for that and the Orioles are not even holding discussion regarding their best players. Would the Yankees consider trading away Judge? The Dodgers Betts? The Phillies Harper?

In reality the cost is going to be prospects. Obviously Holliday is almost certainly off the table. But one of our other top 3 may be what a #2/3 pitcher cost. 

I would be very surprised if every last one of the GM's Elias talks to about quality starting pitching doesn't start by asking about Westburg and the rest.  Again, I think it's a mistake to believe that the O's have a ton of leverage here.  They certainly have some, and Elias is smart and disciplined, but I don't see any bargains.  I especially don't see the luxury of acting like youth and multiple years of control is any kind of rigid starting point for the O's.

[24fps]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I'm cautiously optimistic about Suarez and amazed that the O's somehow converted a NPB pitcher who hadn't pitched in the majors in 7 years into an effective MLB starter.  I'm afraid that he could revert at any time.  Povich seems to have a slim line between being effective and getting hammered.  1 more injury to the starting rotation and we could be looking at someone like Zimmermann every 5th game.   I agree, need to get some kind of middle of rotation starter.  Please no Flaherty types, I'd rather go with what we have.

The team's continued success has really put Elias on the spot IMO and I don't see a Flaherty type as an option anymore.  My money is on a sensible trade that comes at a price high enough that most of us here, including myself, won't like, but a premium comes with having bad luck and that's where the O's are at the moment.

[Philip]

No Scott. He’s way too undependable. We need someone who WON’T enter a game and walk folks like he’s promoting a healthy lifestyle. He’s been a lot bette4 this season, but he’s too undependable, and we already have too many of those.

No Flaherty either. That’s like taking your GF back after she cheated on you.

[OriolesMagic83]

17 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I would be very surprised if every last one of the GM's Elias talks to about quality starting pitching doesn't start by asking about Westburg and the rest.  Again, I think it's a mistake to believe that the O's have a ton of leverage here.  They certainly have some, and Elias is smart and disciplined, but I don't see any bargains.  I especially don't see the luxury of acting like youth and multiple years of control is any kind of rigid starting point for the O's.

O's will probably have to wait till July for a trade because there are so many more buyers than sellers.  I think teams like the Blue Jays, Rays Tigers and Mets are likely to be sellers but they are still in the race although not very good teams as constituted. 

[RZNJ]

4 hours ago, 24fps said:

The team's continued success has really put Elias on the spot IMO and I don't see a Flaherty type as an option anymore.  My money is on a sensible trade that comes at a price high enough that most of us here, including myself, won't like, but a premium comes with having bad luck and that's where the O's are at the moment.

On the spot?  Maybe.   Even at full health, people would have accepted not winning the division because of the pace the Yankees are on.   We have a comfortable lead for the WC so if the Orioles can continue winning at a reasonable pace with Burnes/GRod/Kremer/Irvin/Povich/Suarez.   As far as the playoffs go, there’s only a few starters that inspire confidence in a playoff series that will be available.   Elias isn’t trading Holliday, Basallo, or Mayo.  He just isn’t.   He can get relievers without giving up top prospects.  The question is, can he get someone like Crochet without giving up those top 3?   Crochet, despite innings concerns, gives you a playoff starter plus someone who’ll be here after Burnes is gone.

However, Crochet is an A.J. Preller type of move, not an Elias type of move.   If Povich looks the part of a ML starter AND no more starters go down, I could see Elias standing pat on the starters and fortifying the back end of the bullpen.