The Case For Pulling the Plug on Jorge Mateo

[Brooks The Great]

Jorge Mateo's splits in 2024 - see the attached image below - are somewhat paradoxical. But they are also reflective of a bad, lucky hitter. And I wanted to share some stats that may be surprising to some Orioles fans, and that I believe should be considered by Mike Elias when making the decision to move on completely from Mateo.

To take an overly simplistic view of things, the bottom line for me is that Mateo is unplayable as a hitter given he's produced a .280 OBP thus far. He's been equally as poor at home as he has been on the road in terms of reaching base - he has a .277 OBP on the road in 53 at bats and a .282 OBP at home in 77 at bats. His OPS is virtually identical both home and away (.711 OPS at home, .710 OPS away). So quite obviously, Mateo is doing a lot of his damage against LHP. But there's another split which I feel is being overlooked by most fans, and definitely by Brandon Hyde and Mike Elias - Mateo has extreme splits in day games vs. night games.

 

To have the extreme lefty-righty splits he does, it reasons that Mateo's faced several of the lefties he's faced during day games, where his splits are also extreme. During day games, Mateo has produced a .281 AVG, .319 OBP, and .788 OPS, with his average and OPS both much higher than his overall season line. 

 

Anyone could claim that Mateo should hit against lefties because of splits, and Hyde and Elias certainly do. But I can counter that by saying that Mateo shouldn't play at night. He's had more at bats at night - where he hits .190 with a .239 OBP and .633 OPS - than he has against lefties. It's one thing to take a look at the small sample size for this season of Mateo's games in day games vs. night games in 2024 only, but his lack of production in night games has also been a major issue his entire CAREER.

 

Mateo's career day/night splits:

 

Day:     .245 AVG, .296 OBP, .401 SLG, .698 OPS

Night:   .211 BA, .256 OBP, .352 SLB, .608 OPS

 

Folks, beyond a shadow of a doubt, Jorge Mateo cannot hit in night games. You simply shouldn't roster a player like that if you intend to win PLAYOFF games.

 

Mateo's numbers get even flukier when you consider that 3 of his 4 home runs this season came during night games. So a good chunk of his fluky OPS in 2024 has been fueled in situations where he's clearly a terrible hitter.

 

The bottom line is that Mateo is unplayable as a hitter. He's just gotten lucky thus far this season, and Hyde has not only misused Mateo (way too many at bats against righties, but Hyde is also most likely totally unaware of the day/night splits), Hyde's gotten lucky doing so.

 

Mateo is likely most optimally suited for usage only in day games against lefties, if we are to believe that Hyde, Elias, and the front office are truly analytically-inclined. It's not practical to keep a player on the roster to start in those specific situations, and the team can bank on his hitting metrics declining moving forward - not only because most games are night games, but because Mateo has proven over the course of his whole career that he's a poor hitter. His splits over the past 30 days are also abysmal - this wouldn't be the first time that Mateo has had one hot streak during a season and then completely cratered the remainder of the season. 

 

Mateo has never been a big power guy. So it's completely unrealistic to expect a guy with a .280 OBP and close to no power to maintain a .710 OPS - which has been buoyed by his 4 home runs. As well as his extra base hits that have mostly come in day games - Mateo has 12 doubles, with 9 of them coming in day games.  

 

Obviously, most proponents of keeping Mateo on the team will point to his quality fielding at 2B. If one can assume that Mateo's hitting will decline to some degree the rest of the season - which is a safe assumption given his history and skill set - then not even a gold glove-level fielder can justify being such a black hole in the lineup.

 

With Jordan Westburg dinged up, Mateo has a few more games of usefulness, and unfortunately he's going to get some more starts. But it's imperative that the Orioles move Mateo to the bench as quickly as possible, and then release him (and/or Urias) once Coby Mayo is promoted and Connor Norby given another well-deserved and overdue extended shot to play on the major league team. And that's before even considering the readiness of Jackson Holliday later on this season.

 

It's time to cut ties with Mateo, and the sooner, the better.

Edited June 19 by Brooks The Great

[Spy Fox]

I wouldn't cut ties fully. I think he's a valuable bench player for us, and probably more valuable off the bench than Urias is.

His starting days are numbered though for sure. Most of the ABs he's getting right now will be going to Holliday/Mayo by August.  

[Moose Milligan]

Day games vs. night games!  

You can make your case all you want, but he's not going anywhere, anytime soon.  You're also downplaying his defense and the speed on the bases.  He's stepped up and played second base really, really well so far this year.  I agree that Jackson Holliday is the future over there but there seems to be no rush in bringing him back.  I would love to be incorrect about that.

He's at 1.2 WAR for the season in 130 at bats.  I'm not saying he's an all-star, but he's a valuable player...and while I'm a big fan of OBP which he doesn't provide, he's providing value in other areas as well.

He's going to be a really good utility player moving forward.  I know it pains some posters that we can't have all-stars at every position and on the bench but Mateo is fine for what he is.  A good glove, someone that go on a heater for part of a season and make you believe he's turned a corner and some speed on the bases.  

 

Edited June 19 by Moose Milligan

[LGOrioles]

He’s been above league average in terms of wRC+ against LHP’s since the beginning of last year, so I’m cool with him being a platoon bat and then pinch running or maybe being a potential defensive replacement. Yeah he should not be playing against RHP’s though. 

[FlaO'sFan]

Urias let go before Mateo for me. And that doesn't mean I haven't appreciated Urias.

Mateo is a plus player right now off the bench imo with his versatility and speed.

Edited June 19 by FlaO'sFan

[Three Run Homer]

I think the O's were hoping that Holliday would make the decision for them by hitting well in the majors.  That didn't happen and I doubt we see Holliday again until September.  

I agree that Mateo should be a utility infielder.  The question is who replaces him.  I liked Westburg's defense at 2B last year but he's been very shaky there this year.  On the other hand he's looked excellent at 3B this year.  If you have Mayo at 3B and Westburg at 2B you may have suspect defense at two infield positions.  

I thought Norby looked ok at second and at the plate during his brief stay.  I'd be fine with giving him the bulk of playing time at 2B for now.  

2B is one of the positions the O's could consider upgrading at the trade deadline.  An impact bat at 2B on a short-term rental might be just the ticket.  

[DirtyBird]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Day games vs. night games!  

You can make your acse all you want, but he's not going anywhere, anytime soon.  You're also downplaying his defense and the speed on the bases.  He's stepped up and played second base really, really well so far this year.  I agree that Jackson Holliday is the future over there but there seems to be no rush in bringing him back.  I would love to be incorrect about that.

He's at 1.2 WAR for the season in 130 at bats.  I'm not saying he's an all-star, but he's a valuable player...and while I'm a big fan of OBP which he doesn't provide, he's providing value in other areas as well.

He's going to be a really good utility player moving forward.  I know it pains some posters that we can't have all-stars at every position and on the bench but Mateo is fine for what he is.  A good glove, someone that go on a heater for part of a season and make you believe he's turned a corner and some speed on the bases.  

 

Thanks for saying something intelligent

[Rbiggs2525]

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Day games vs. night games!  

You can make your acse all you want, but he's not going anywhere, anytime soon.  You're also downplaying his defense and the speed on the bases.  He's stepped up and played second base really, really well so far this year.  I agree that Jackson Holliday is the future over there but there seems to be no rush in bringing him back.  I would love to be incorrect about that.

He's at 1.2 WAR for the season in 130 at bats.  I'm not saying he's an all-star, but he's a valuable player...and while I'm a big fan of OBP which he doesn't provide, he's providing value in other areas as well.

He's going to be a really good utility player moving forward.  I know it pains some posters that we can't have all-stars at every position and on the bench but Mateo is fine for what he is.  A good glove, someone that go on a heater for part of a season and make you believe he's turned a corner and some speed on the bases.  

 

I second this. 

[Moose Milligan]

You're welcome, DB.  

[btdart20]

Is it time to go down this path:

Coby Mayo at 3B and Westburg at 2B with Mateo sprinkled in vs. LHP and defensive replacement (shifting Westburg to 3B)

That's next right?

[eddie83]

The plug will be pulled when they think Holliday is ready to come back. Mateo is a placeholder but as Moose has pointed out he has been a productive one. 
 

It’s not like Mateo is costing the team right now. I agree he is better served as a platoon player. It’s really all about when Jackson is ready. 

[Aristotelian]

Tldr, you really really dislike Mateo. Even if you are right that he will revert to norms on offense, he has played very well at 2B with Gunnar and brings value as a defensive sub and pinch runner. I doubt they completely get rid of him this year, maybe even next. If he stops hitting, he could first be replaced by Holliday vs RHP and then altogether. If Holliday was progressing according to plan Mateo would already be on the bench. However Holliday showed he wasn't ready and I believe we are forth ate to have Mateo for now 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

27 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I wouldn't cut ties fully. I think he's a valuable bench player for us, and probably more valuable off the bench than Urias is.

His starting days are numbered though for sure. Most of the ABs he's getting right now will be going to Holliday/Mayo by August.  

Mateo has value, but he’s not being utilized properly starting 140+ games a season. Platoon player, pinch runner and defensive replacement best suits Mateo.

It’s not like the Orioles don’t recognize this they called up Holliday only to see him struggle and now go on the IL. Maybe the team calls up Norby and starts him regularly at 2B? Norby can hit and if he plays adequate defense he’s the 2B until Holliday returns. 

[Malike]

Mateo is an incredibly valuable utility man for this team. He is going nowhere, and there isn't enough teeth gnashing on this board to make it so. Mateo is being utilized the way he is because Holliday couldn't secure the 2B job, the team knows he's going to eventually, so Mateo is playing placeholder and he's doing okay in that role.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Mateo will be fine if Mullins and Hays start hitting at their career norms. Thankfully, Santander is looking more normal. If you've got those guys hitting, you can carry Mateo.