How far do you go to try to save this?

[ThomasTomasz]

With the trade for Burnes, the Orioles are already all-in.  A problem with the bullpen is that the return timeline for Coulombe, and to a lesser extent Bautista, puts them already at the end of the minor league season.  It’s going to be really hard for them to rehab at the complex without true game action, and be expected to hop back in and ready to play in the post-season grind.  

So you need two high-leverage bullpen guys.  You also aren’t sure of being able to re-sign Burnes, so we have to look at a starting pitcher who is not a rental, who can slot behind Grayson until Bradish is back.  It also can’t be someone like Garrett Crochet, who is coming back from injuries of his own, and will be on a strict pitch count.  

What I would do is heavily investigate what changes the Marlins made this off-season in their coaching and development.  Why have most of the pitchers fallen off a cliff this year performance-wise?  They had to have done something.   Under Kim Ng, the Marlins were pitching whisperers at every level of their organization, and with her unceremonious departure, I am sure that changes were made.  Definitely need to do some digging into the Marlins changes, as well as some of their underlying metrics, to see if they can be tweaked to make a big difference.  

[Allan Bryant]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

There will be FAs (none admittedly as good as Burnes) that we can sign. We have a ridiculously low payroll and aren't paying anyone. 

We are not going to maintain excellence long term by only using the draft and trades to meaningfully add talent. We are going to have to use the free agent market (wisely) too.

Don’t forget we need keep developing our international system as well . I also think they need start scouting and bidding into Japanese talents .  We want to augment our farm pipeline to keep window open (hopefully) for years 

[Bemorewins]

16 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Because he'd be cheap and he's performing well right now. I hate to say it but looking at the top pitchers right now, almost all are on contending teams. The only guys I see who are on Fangraphs playoff odds <30% and FA 2025 or 26:

Flaherty 3.01 ERA/0.95 WHIP

Tyler Anderson 2.48/1.18

Fedde 3.09/1.17

Lorenzen 3.00/1.15

Eovaldi 3.15/1.16

Kikuchi 3.65/1.25

Quantrill 3.43/1.30

Do you like any of these guys better than Fedde? Maybe Eovaldi? 

If the D-backs fall out that might open up Gallen but they just made the WS and could see themselves as contenders still. Cards are still in it but if they fall out that would open Gibson.

If you include guys who are under control for longer but signed to market or worse contracts, that might open up:

Gray 2.95/1.02 (if STL falls out)

Berrios 3.13/1.02

On this list, Gray is the guy I want the most but we may have to wait for STL to fall out and still have to make an offer they can't refuse. Right now someone in the Fedde/Eovaldi group looks most realistic but could maybe be had for a Norby or even Billy Cook type of prospect.

Do you think an offer of Kjerstad, Norby, and Stowers/Beaver could land Gray and Helsley? 

Too much? Too little?

[Just Regular]

As successful as the body of work has been, I'm open to the possibility Sigbot already thinks Povich and McDermott are close to as good 3rd/4th options as anyone else they can get.

On a rolling 3-day basis of who will sell, the Blue Jays having just been swept at home by the Red Sox teases if any or all of Berrios, Bassitt, Gausman or Kikuchi come into play.

[oriolediehard]

11 hours ago, Philip said:

My first reaction was “whaaa..?” And then I checked his stats. Yes Kjersted could get that for us, if the Cardinals wanted to trade Sonny.

We should have signed Sonny Gray this off season,  then we wouldn't have to trade prospects for him!

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

Don’t forget we need keep developing our international system as well . I also think they need start scouting and bidding into Japanese talents .  We want to augment our farm pipeline to keep window open (hopefully) for years 

A lot of posters/fans talk about the philosophy of a “pipeline”. But I think there is nuisance there that is often missed, not understood, or understated.

While it is most certainly a fact, that all healthy/competitive orgs need a continuous to produce young, cheap talent. The other reality is that you will not be able to maintain the same hit rate that you’ve had picking much lower in the draft. Players/talents that you would prefer will be gone by the time it is your turn to pick. This does not mean that you still can get undervalued talent in the amateur draft or that you can not develop top international talent. But the days of getting the number prospect in the sport yearly to join the O’s (Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, maybe Basall?) are coming to an end.

Here’s the part that I don’t hear much discussion about - The more successful the O’s are in drafting and player development, the more likely it is that teams will “copy” that approach and the less likely you can continue to exploit that market inequity. ALL pro sports are copy cat leagues. Also, the more successful the O’s are the more likely player development, scouting, and top analytics/data science personnel will be poached/promoted elsewhere.

The key to staying ahead of the curve is continuing to evolve and exploit new market inequities. 

One of the market inequity opportunities that appears to be open right now is players (like Santander) who produce traditional counting numbers but may not have great stat cast/advanced metrics numbers.

[Allan Bryant]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yep. Bradish comes back in ‘26 but I don’t believe we’ll see the other two again. 

Unless they are willing to accept relief pitching for our bullpen . I don’t trust these two guys as starters again 

[Aristotelian]

12 minutes ago, waroriole said:

You can actually sign free agents in the off-season for next year’s team. They don’t cost players, just money. Kind of like Gray, they guy people are now clamoring for. 

Right, but there is a need now too so you could kill two birds with one stone. To be clear, I am not on board with trading Holliday, Mayo, or Basallo. But I would be open to Kjerstad for the right guy (Gray).

Just for depth if nothing else it appears we need to make at least some kind of move. And I really think a playoff rotation of Burnes/Grayson/Irvin/Kremer is not really set up for success.

[waroriole]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Right, but there is a need now too so you could kill two birds with one stone. To be clear, I am not on board with trading Holliday, Mayo, or Basallo. But I would be open to Kjerstad for the right guy (Gray).

Just for depth if nothing else it appears we need to make at least some kind of move. And I really think a playoff rotation of Burnes/Grayson/Irvin/Kremer is not really set up for success.

If Gray is the right guy, why not just sign him 6 months ago? Giving up Kjerstad for that is insane. 

[dystopia]

Gray did not want to sign here. 

[dystopia]

49 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Because he'd be cheap and he's performing well right now. I hate to say it but looking at the top pitchers right now, almost all are on contending teams. The only guys I see who are on Fangraphs playoff odds <30% and FA 2025 or 26:

Flaherty 3.01 ERA/0.95 WHIP

Tyler Anderson 2.48/1.18

Fedde 3.09/1.17

Lorenzen 3.00/1.15

Eovaldi 3.15/1.16

Kikuchi 3.65/1.25

Quantrill 3.43/1.30

Do you like any of these guys better than Fedde? Maybe Eovaldi? 

If the D-backs fall out that might open up Gallen but they just made the WS and could see themselves as contenders still. Cards are still in it but if they fall out that would open Gibson.

If you include guys who are under control for longer but signed to market or worse contracts, that might open up:

Gray 2.95/1.02 (if STL falls out)

Berrios 3.13/1.02

On this list, Gray is the guy I want the most but we may have to wait for STL to fall out and still have to make an offer they can't refuse. Right now someone in the Fedde/Eovaldi group looks most realistic but could maybe be had for a Norby or even Billy Cook type of prospect.

He’s performed well for half a season. He has a track record of mediocrity at best. Maybe RZNJ is right and he’s not the same pitcher, but I’m still not giving up much for him and I wouldn’t want that to be our big deadline acquisition   

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Gray did not want to sign here. 

Really? That is insulting.

[Allan Bryant]

20 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

A lot of posters/fans talk about the philosophy of a “pipeline”. But I think there is nuisance there that is often missed, not understood, or understated.

While it is most certainly a fact, that all healthy/competitive orgs need a continuous to produce young, cheap talent. The other reality is that you will not be able to maintain the same hit rate that you’ve had picking much lower in the draft. Players/talents that you would prefer will be gone by the time it is your turn to pick. This does not mean that you still can get undervalued talent in the amateur draft or that you can not develop top international talent. But the days of getting the number prospect in the sport yearly to join the O’s (Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, maybe Basall?) are coming to an end.

Here’s the part that I don’t hear much discussion about - The more successful the O’s are in drafting and player development, the more likely it is that teams will “copy” that approach and the less likely you can continue to exploit that market inequity. ALL pro sports are copy cat leagues. Also, the more successful the O’s are the more likely player development, scouting, and top analytics/data science personnel will be poached/promoted elsewhere.

The key to staying ahead of the curve is continuing to evolve and exploit new market inequities. 

One of the market inequity opportunities that appears to be open right now is players (like Santander) who produce traditional counting numbers but may not have great stat cast/advanced metrics numbers.

Yes other teams can and will copycat our team’s strategy. They also likely will poach and promote our staff employees ( as you mentioned ) .

But my question for you is………is Elias and Sig the guys that strive to evolve and adapt their own team developments ?  So the Orioles can stay ahead of the curve 

[Bemorewins]

42 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

As successful as the body of work has been, I'm open to the possibility Sigbot already thinks Povich and McDermott are close to as good 3rd/4th options as anyone else they can get.

On a rolling 3-day basis of who will sell, the Blue Jays having just been swept at home by the Red Sox teases if any or all of Berrios, Bassitt, Gausman or Kikuchi come into play.

I’m sure that the Blue Jays would love to find someone to take Gausman off of their hands. Declining player still owed a good bit of money.

[dystopia]

10 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Really? That is insulting.

Well, I should say it was just that he really wanted to sign with the Cardinals. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/sonny-gray-cardinals-deal