I sort of don't get Elias's plan

[The Goob]

The Orioles are one game back of the Yankees in the loss column for the division, 6 games up on the Twins for the first Wild Card, 7 games ahead of the Royals for the last playoff spot.

We may not win the division but it would take an abysmal second half to miss the playoffs.  Given that I would love to add to this team in the bullpen and a starter if the price was right but I would give us as good a chance as anyone to win the AL even if we didn't make a trade based on our top two starters and the power of our lineup.  I believe our lineup with Mayo at third or Holliday at second by the start of the playoffs to go with Gunnar SS, Rutschman C, Santander RF, O'Hearn DH, Westburg 2B/3B, Mountcastle 1B, Cowser/Kjerstad LF and Mullins CF is better and likely significantly better than any team but the Dodgers.

 

Edited Wednesday at 18:36 by The Goob

[ledzepp8]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The 2018 Red Sox won 108 games that year. I don't remember many if any people questioning their chances or considering them a long shot going into the tournament. There are a few other teams on that list who were by no means long shots either.

 

I'm not making that claim. I think they all had great shots going into the playoffs. And yet, they all had worse pitching by ERA (aside from the Royals pen) than the Orioles. An Orioles team that, according to you, "are by no means winning a World Series with this pitching staff as is".

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

Sure, although I guess I'm mostly talking about the bullpen. 

But with the starters, you can argue it was ridiculous to rely on Bradish and Means for anything. Most of the OH certainly wasn't counting on them as 2 of the 5 SPs. One more depth starter would have been smart. 

I disagree on Means.   I think it was perfectly reasonable to expect that by the end of the season and in the playoffs we would have a good John Means in the top 3 of our rotation.     Peak Means?   I don't know about that.   But certainly a servicable Means.   While there are pitchers that have had two Tommy John's, it is very rare that the second one pops up as quickly as his did.   Most are aeparated by years.   We knew at the start of the year that he was behind in prep for the season, and certainly it was reasonable to expect that we might not have him for much of the first 2-3 months of the season.     But anticipating a 2nd Tommy John?   I don't think so.

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

I'm not making that claim. I think they all had great shots going into the playoffs. And yet, they all had worse pitching by ERA (aside from the Royals pen) than the Orioles. An Orioles team that, according to you, "are by no means winning a World Series with this pitching staff as is".

I don't want to do the semantics thing. I really don't. 

If you believe that the Red Sox with their "worse" pitching staff in 2018, when they won 108 regular season games, had the same odds at winning the World Series that we do with our current pitching staff, more power to you!

[The Goob]

Here is another fact that I think has gone overlooked.  The Orioles have 30 wins against teams with a winning record.  The Yankees have 26 and the Blue Jays somehow have 22.  No other team in baseball has 20.  But yeah the sky is falling and this team has no chance at winning anything this year.

[oriolediehard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

You are just parsing words.  The Orioles are not missing the playoffs.  
 

And yea, your overreactions are ridiculous. Being worried that we don’t have enough to win a WS makes sense. Being concerned that the team is going to sink and not be good is just not smart.

Peter Schmuck says we picked the right time to have a losing streak!      https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2024/06/26/peter-schmuck-well-least-orioles-picked-right-time-lose-five-row/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=peter-schmuck-well-least-orioles-picked-right-time-lose-five-row&utm_source=BaltimoreBaseball.com+List&utm_campaign=c4149ac608-RSS_MAILCHIMP&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_cddc084dff-c4149ac608-229041152&mc_cid=c4149ac608&mc_eid=e501cd7381

[ledzepp8]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't want to do the semantics thing. I really don't. 

If you believe that the Red Sox with their "worse" pitching staff in 2018, when they won 108 regular season games, had the same odds at winning the World Series that we do with our current pitching staff, more power to you!

What semantics thing? I'm not making any claims here. I think the Orioles have just as good of a chance of winning a WS as any other team that will be in the playoffs. I'm not saying that there should be no moves made to bolster this pitching staff. You're the one saying that the Orioles pitching staff is "by no means winning a WS as is". I'm pointing out several teams just in recent years that, by ERA, were worse than the Orioles have been at this point in the season. The onus is on you to prove your argument. Why were the Red Sox capable of winning the WS that year, when they had a worse pitching staff by ERA than the Orioles. The Orioles who you say, again, are "by no means winning a WS with this pitching staff as is".

The basic point is that teams that win championships aren't infallible. They all have some weaknesses. Stop acting like only teams built like Murderer's Row are capable of going all the way.

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

What semantics thing? I'm not making any claims here. I think the Orioles have just as good of a chance of winning a WS as any other team that will be in the playoffs. I'm not saying that there should be no moves made to bolster this pitching staff. You're the one saying that the Orioles pitching staff is "by no means winning a WS as is". I'm pointing out several teams just in recent years that, by ERA, were worse than the Orioles have been at this point in the season. The onus is on you to prove your argument. Why were the Red Sox capable of winning the WS that year, when they had a worse pitching staff by ERA than the Orioles. The Orioles who you say, again, are "by no means winning a WS with this pitching staff as is".

The basic point is that teams that win championships aren't infallible. They all have some weaknesses. Stop acting like only teams built like Murderer's Row are capable of going all the way.

Agree to disagree.

[bpilktree67]

7 hours ago, gtman55 said:

You have to admit this is kind of nuts. These are the top pitching prospects in baseball. How many Orioles do you see?

1   Paul Skenes    RHP    PIT  
9    Yoshinobu Yamamoto    RHP    LAD  
21    Cade Horton    RHP    CHC   
23    Andrew Painter    RHP    PHI 
31    Jackson Jobe    RHP    DET   
39    Jacob Misiorowski    RHP    MIL   
55    Chase Hampton    RHP    NYY   
56    Mason Miller    RHP    OAK  
59    AJ Smith-Shawver    RHP   ATL
60    Drew Thorpe    RHP    SD  
64    Hurston Waldrep    RHP    ATL
65    Tink Hence    RHP    STL   
67    Dylan Lesko    RHP    SD    
68    Brock Porter    RHP    TEX   
70    Rhett Lowder    RHP    CIN   
75    Mick Abel    RHP    PHI  
83    Noble Meyer    RHP    MIA
84    Jared Jones    RHP    PIT    
87    Chase Petty    RHP    CIN   
94    Cade Cavalli    RHP    WAS    
103    Jack Leiter    RHP    TEX    
113    Daniel Espino    RHP    CLE   
123    Ben Joyce    RHP    LAA   
129    Gavin Stone    RHP    LAD    
132    Connor Phillips    RHP    CIN   
133    River Ryan    RHP    LAD    
136    Christian Scott    RHP    NYM  
141    Tekoah Roby    RHP    STL   
145    Blade Tidwell    RHP    NYM  
147    Wilmer Flores    RHP    DET  
148    Orion Kerkering    RHP    PHI   
150    Nick Frasso    RHP    LAD 
152    Bubba Chandler    RHP    PIT  
161    Chase Dollander    RHP    COL   
164    Landen Maroudis    RHP    TOR    
165    Ty Madden    RHP    DET    
166    Ben Brown    RHP    CHC   
172    Emerson Hancock    RHP    SEA    
176    Will Warren    RHP    NYY  
177    Owen Murphy    RHP    ATL    
181    Carlos F. Rodriguez    RHP    MIL  
183    Nick Nastrini    RHP    CHW  
186    Spencer Arrighetti    RHP    HOU   
189    Luis Morales    RHP    OAK    

To me, champions have great pitching and defense. Our pitching is a mess right now.

Who did the Rangers bring up with there great pitching prospects?    The Astros won with a lot of low level international pitching guys they signed for very cheap.  

The draft is such a crap shoot as is the international signing guys so you try to bring in as much talent as possible then figure out who you have.  Look at how many high draft picks never even touch the majors.  Do you think Elias thought Mayo was gonna be one of the best prospects in the game drafting him in the 4th round?   Do you think he knew Basillo was gonna turn out to be one of the best hitting prospects in the game yet other teams pretty much let him land in our lap by not going after him.  Every single team passed on Henderson, Westburg, Mayo(multiple times) so it isnt like these guys were sure things(not that anyone is).  If he knew Henderson was gonna be an MVP player, Westburg was gonna be an all star, Mayo one of the top power hitting prospects in baseball and all the other guys like rutschman, Cowser, Kjerstadt and Holliday were gonna succeed then maybe he would have looked more at pitching earlier but you don't know which players will succeed so lets blame him.  Druw Jones was the consesus top pick in the MLB draft going in and when we took Holliday everyone was kinda like what are they doing and so far it looks like we are the only one that knew what we were doing.  

[LookitsPuck]

52 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I never said that and do not believe any of that as Rubenstein didn't even have control of the franchise at that time. And you better believe that if it was still in Angelos hands he would not allow Rubenstein much of any input until ALL of the risk/liability was transferred to Rubenstein.

I love your use of the word "methodical" there to describe John Angelos. I have some of other words for it - cheap, miserish, greedy, moneygrubbing, tightwad, terrible, awful ... just to name a few...lol

Oh, yeah, those adjectives track. I think he comes across as somebody that would excel in Rubenstein's private equity world. Defining a specific margin they want to hit, and all else things be damned...hit those margins. Generally, those people are very methodical, although I would also categorize John Angelos as emotional and thin skinned. My gut is John had a specific amount of money that *he* wanted to make in a year and it came at the expense of the on field and off the field product. There's no reason that the stadium couldn't have been upgraded in some way prior to this influx of capital from the stat. The guy is a penny pincher through and through. 

[1fingerwillie]

7 hours ago, gtman55 said:

You have to admit this is kind of nuts. These are the top pitching prospects in baseball. How many Orioles do you see?

1   Paul Skenes    RHP    PIT  
9    Yoshinobu Yamamoto    RHP    LAD  
21    Cade Horton    RHP    CHC   
23    Andrew Painter    RHP    PHI 
31    Jackson Jobe    RHP    DET   
39    Jacob Misiorowski    RHP    MIL   
55    Chase Hampton    RHP    NYY   
56    Mason Miller    RHP    OAK  
59    AJ Smith-Shawver    RHP   ATL
60    Drew Thorpe    RHP    SD  
64    Hurston Waldrep    RHP    ATL
65    Tink Hence    RHP    STL   
67    Dylan Lesko    RHP    SD    
68    Brock Porter    RHP    TEX   
70    Rhett Lowder    RHP    CIN   
75    Mick Abel    RHP    PHI  
83    Noble Meyer    RHP    MIA
84    Jared Jones    RHP    PIT    
87    Chase Petty    RHP    CIN   
94    Cade Cavalli    RHP    WAS    
103    Jack Leiter    RHP    TEX    
113    Daniel Espino    RHP    CLE   
123    Ben Joyce    RHP    LAA   
129    Gavin Stone    RHP    LAD    
132    Connor Phillips    RHP    CIN   
133    River Ryan    RHP    LAD    
136    Christian Scott    RHP    NYM  
141    Tekoah Roby    RHP    STL   
145    Blade Tidwell    RHP    NYM  
147    Wilmer Flores    RHP    DET  
148    Orion Kerkering    RHP    PHI   
150    Nick Frasso    RHP    LAD 
152    Bubba Chandler    RHP    PIT  
161    Chase Dollander    RHP    COL   
164    Landen Maroudis    RHP    TOR    
165    Ty Madden    RHP    DET    
166    Ben Brown    RHP    CHC   
172    Emerson Hancock    RHP    SEA    
176    Will Warren    RHP    NYY  
177    Owen Murphy    RHP    ATL    
181    Carlos F. Rodriguez    RHP    MIL  
183    Nick Nastrini    RHP    CHW  
186    Spencer Arrighetti    RHP    HOU   
189    Luis Morales    RHP    OAK    

To me, champions have great pitching and defense. Our pitching is a mess right now.

This post is the answer to your own question. IMO you are just misreading it. Per this list, only 20% of the top 100 prospects in all of Baseball are pitchers. Pitchers have many more question marks attached to them. If you want to maximize your player development chances, you draft bats.

[bpilktree67]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

I agree that Angelos tied Mikes hands to an extent, but that begs the question of why he was allowed to pay for Kimbrel and trade for Burnes.

And if Angelo’s OKed those moves, why not others?
 

Once Rubenstein took over, the discussion certainly changed, but presumably Mike would have much more freedom to trade assets. Not necessarily sign big FAs, but trade assets.

We don’t know for sure, but Mike is mostly in charge of happens now.

Kimbrel was a 1 year deal and Burns has 1 year on his deal.   It has been pretty clear that Angelos didn't want any deals on the books for a longer period.  When is the last multi year deal with we have offered a player or even traded for in the last 8 years?  I honestly couldn't tell you.  

[bpilktree67]

Just now, bpilktree67 said:

Kimbrel was a 1 year deal and Burns has 1 year on his deal.   It has been pretty clear that Angelos didn't want any deals on the books for a longer period.  When is the last multi year deal with we have offered a player or even traded for in the last 8 years?  I honestly couldn't tell you.  

I believe a lot of that had to do with not wanting any contracts on the books for when the team was sold so can't completely blame them for not doing it to often.   

[OnlyOneOriole]

I get the plan.  Draft the bats and trade for or sign the more provable arms. 

Now he just needs to come off some of his precious draft picks and do a trade or 2. 

[The Goob]

9 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

I get the plan.  Draft the bats and trade for or sign the more provable arms. 

Now he just needs to come off some of his precious draft picks and do a trade or 2. 

Like he did when he traded Ortiz and Hall for Burnes.  I am all for trading for more pitching but give it a break man.  What available pitcher do you think is worth trading any of the "precious draft picks" - Holliday, Mayo or Basallo? or for that matter even Kjerstad, Stowers or Norby?  Maybe you want to trade Gunnar, Adley, Westburg and Cowser since they were also once precious draft picks?