Fedde Trade

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

I think a better question is who would you prefer to start game 3 in the post-season, Kremer or Fedde?  I voted no here but it was close, I would do one of Norby or Beavers but wouldn't include Baumeister. 

Right. That’s where the question lies.

Come October, maybe I will be good with Fedde but i can’t say that now.

I would like to get Scherzer and Luzardo or another guy who we could have for next year as well even if it’s not 100% we can rely on them this year at the time of the trade.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m having trouble erasing from my memory the largely poor years Fedde had with the Nats.  Being a Washington Post subscriber I was well aware of how disappointing he was in DC.  It seems like he learned a few things in Korea but I’m worried that his good half-season will prove illusory.   

The sweeper does wonders. 

Fedde is growing on me. He sort of reminds me of Bradish with just a little less velo. 

I’d be willing to even go as far as Norby and Beavers. Gotta think one of them is the price for the 2nd half of this year and the postseason. The other one is the price for all of next season. 

Gun to my head… I do Norby, Beavers, and Baumeister. 

Edited July 9 by sportsfan8703

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, theobird said:

I take them both. Starting pitching depth is a big deal for the O’s. 

If Fedde would be a #3  that is a good reason to trade for him but if he is no better than Suarez I might try to get someone else.  Especially if its cost  Baumiester to get Fedde.

That is why I am asking the question.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If Fedde would be a #3  that is a good reason to trade for him but if he is no better than Suarez I might try to get someone else.  Especially if its cost  Baumiester to get Fedde.

That is why I am asking the question.

He’s clearly better than Suarez. It’s not particularly close.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s clearly better than Suarez. It’s not particularly close.

Suarez: 2.48 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 4.00 xERA

Fedde: 3.13 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 3.57 xERA

Depending what stats you like, I'd call that close.   

I question @wildcard's premise that there's no point in acquiring a pitcher that is only at Suarez's approximate level.   We came into the year with pretty decent starting pitching depth, but the injuries to Means, Bradish and Wells have really thinned out the rotation.   Simply put, I'd love to get a no. 2-3 starter, but even a Fedde-level starter would be worthwhile to protect against further injuries or just plain fatigue over the final 72 games.

[G54377]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I said no but I might…it just depends on what else we can do.  Fedde is way down my list and I’m not sure I want to deal Baumeister here. 

Agreed. I would do this trade only if it's basically our only real option to add a starter of significance. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Suarez: 2.48 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 4.00 xERA

Fedde: 3.13 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 3.57 xERA

Depending what stats you like, I'd call that close.   

I question @wildcard's premise that there's no point in acquiring a pitcher that is only at Suarez's approximate level.   We came into the year with pretty decent starting pitching depth, but the injuries to Means, Bradish and Wells have really thinned out the rotation.   Simply put, I'd love to get a no. 2-3 starter, but even a Fedde-level starter would be worthwhile to protect against further injuries or just plain fatigue over the final 72 games.

Fedde’s stats show a guy who is more likely to sustain this level vs Suarez. I don’t care what they have done in a few months. I care about where they will be in October and Fedde is easily the better bet by then of those 2.

[wildcard]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Suarez: 2.48 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 4.00 xERA

Fedde: 3.13 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 3.57 xERA

Depending what stats you like, I'd call that close.   

I question @wildcard's premise that there's no point in acquiring a pitcher that is only at Suarez's approximate level.   We came into the year with pretty decent starting pitching depth, but the injuries to Means, Bradish and Wells have really thinned out the rotation.   Simply put, I'd love to get a no. 2-3 starter, but even a Fedde-level starter would be worthwhile to protect against further injuries or just plain fatigue over the final 72 games.

Its a matter of cost for me.

I agree that the O's need more pitching depth.   The question is what do the O's have to give up to get it.    If part  of the cost is Baumeister that is questionable to me.  If it's Portes, Nunez or Chace I might go with that.  

And Fedde is not the only choice.   Looking for other options is probably preferable to trading Baumeister.

Edited July 9 by wildcard

[waroriole]

Do pitchers usually figure it out in their age 31 season, with a drastic decline in HR rate?

[LookitsPuck]

I'm not including Baumeister for Fedde. Yes, he's a different pitcher this year than previous years, but the issue is it's only been a half a season. 

I don't think Fedde's 3.13 ERA is sustainable. He pitches in a pretty lackluster division and he has worse numbers on the road (ERA over 4). That said, I do think his numbers are sustainable compared to previous years. Yeah, he may end up being a 4.00 ERA pitcher this year. Do you give up a #5/#6 (Norby/Beavers) and a #17 (Baumeister, whose stock is rising) for 1.5 years of Fedde? Next year could very well tank. There's little track record to show this is a long term thing for him. 

To me, it'd be like trading for Kyle Gibson with slightly more upside. I wouldn't give those type of players up for him. 

Last year the O's gave up Zach Showalter, Cesar Prieto, and Drew Rom for half a season of Jack Flaherty. The main difference between that trade and this potential trade is Fedde has an extra season with a reasonable salary (2 years, $15m total). 

I'm okay trading one of Norby or Beavers, but adding in another guy towards the back of the prospect ranking chart (Nunez?). But not Baumeister. 

Edited July 9 by LookitsPuck

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Sometimes poster, Chicago White Sox, said he’d be happy with this return for Fedde.    If this was a take it or leave it offer on July 30 would you do it?    Is it fair?

This was already discussed…unlike Sportsguy I do this deal. If this is all Elias does I’d be disappointed but that wouldn’t stop me from doing it 

[e16bball]

One concern I have is an issue that Sports Guy mentioned in a different post: we only have so many bullets to shoot. 

Due to a bit of a lull in production from the factory (specifically surrounding the 2022 and 2023 drafts in particular), we’re starting to run a bit dry on interesting prospects that could anchor meaningful deals. Once you get past the top tier guys, we’re a bit thinner in that next level of prospect.

To demonstrate the point, if you look at Tony’s power rankings, there’s a very reasonable chance that #1 (Mayo) and #4 (Povich) won’t be prospects any longer by September. Even if we assume Holliday stays down — no guarantee — that would mean that our top 5 prospects by Tony’s reckoning would include Chayce McDermott, Michael Forret, and Enrique Bradfield. And the guys many are discussing here (Norby, Beavers, Baumeister) would all be top 10 in the organization at that point.

In my view, there comes a time when you have be cautious to keep some of your powder dry. We’ve had such a luxury of prospect riches that it felt literally of no consequence to peel off a Joey Ortiz and a DL Hall. And thanks to the depth at the ML level, it may still be largely inconsequential to send off a Norby or a Beavers or a Baumeister for a short term upgrade. 

But I see some posts discussing the potential of lumping two or all three of those guys together in one package. And that’s where I get a little squeamish. Because while that likely wouldn’t directly hurt the MLB Orioles roster, it pretty much strips the system of any remaining upper-level “prospects” that might have any meaningful trade value. Which could hurt the ability to trade for a reliever, for example, or might limit our ability to put any kind of a decent “second prospect” on the table with Basallo in a Skubal deal, etc. 

 

In sum, I think the farm is a little more bare at the moment than many want to acknowledge. We still have a few elite prospects, but there’s a pretty gap when it comes to depth. I think there are some exciting guys at the lowest levels, but they’re a ways off yet. If you deal off all of Norby, Beavers, Baumeister, etc. — especially all in one deal — that gap becomes even wider and more barren. I think the team needs to be a bit judicious in how willingly it packages those guys together, especially for relatively fringy returns.

[bpilktree67]

I will let you know after the draft. If Elias goes with a few college arms, i am more willing to deal Baumeister then I am right now.  This draft should be about filling in for guys that we are likely to trade at the deadline.  If we are gonna have to give up pitchers then we should be able to replace most of those guys in this years draft in the first few rounds.  Only Povich, Mcdermott, and Johnson are close to helping the big league team in next year or two imo .

[sportsfan8703]

Ryan Ripken with some good stuff here. Fedde doesn’t just have the new sweeper. He’s getting a ton of movement. His splitter is nasty now too. The splitter has always been big amongst the pitchers that come over from Korea/Japan. Remember Koji. 

I hadn’t seen a lot of Fedde before this, but he’s got a 4.0 WAR. Watch his highlights. He’s filthy. Big dude. The sweeper is Bradish-esque.

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, e16bball said:

One concern I have is an issue that Sports Guy mentioned in a different post: we only have so many bullets to shoot. 

Due to a bit of a lull in production from the factory (specifically surrounding the 2022 and 2023 drafts in particular), we’re starting to run a bit dry on interesting prospects that could anchor meaningful deals. Once you get past the top tier guys, we’re a bit thinner in that next level of prospect.

To demonstrate the point, if you look at Tony’s power rankings, there’s a very reasonable chance that #1 (Mayo) and #4 (Povich) won’t be prospects any longer by September. Even if we assume Holliday stays down — no guarantee — that would mean that our top 5 prospects by Tony’s reckoning would include Chayce McDermott, Michael Forret, and Enrique Bradfield. And the guys many are discussing here (Norby, Beavers, Baumeister) would all be top 10 in the organization at that point.

In my view, there comes a time when you have be cautious to keep some of your powder dry. We’ve had such a luxury of prospect riches that it felt literally of no consequence to peel off a Joey Ortiz and a DL Hall. And thanks to the depth at the ML level, it may still be largely inconsequential to send off a Norby or a Beavers or a Baumeister for a short term upgrade. 

But I see some posts discussing the potential of lumping two or all three of those guys together in one package. And that’s where I get a little squeamish. Because while that likely wouldn’t directly hurt the MLB Orioles roster, it pretty much strips the system of any remaining upper-level “prospects” that might have any meaningful trade value. Which could hurt the ability to trade for a reliever, for example, or might limit our ability to put any kind of a decent “second prospect” on the table with Basallo in a Skubal deal, etc. 

 

In sum, I think the farm is a little more bare at the moment than many want to acknowledge. We still have a few elite prospects, but there’s a pretty gap when it comes to depth. I think there are some exciting guys at the lowest levels, but they’re a ways off yet. If you deal off all of Norby, Beavers, Baumeister, etc. — especially all in one deal — that gap becomes even wider and more barren. I think the team needs to be a bit judicious in how willingly it packages those guys together, especially for relatively fringy returns.

I think we are about to go a year or so of a down system and after that, it will be about the 2023 and 2024 drafts, as well as the Intl guys.

As good as Elias has been drafting, it’s definitely been a struggle beyond the top few picks, overall.

I also think we see some players traded, which may help replenish some of the system as well.

Next year we will also get the pick back for Burnes.