Excellent Meoli article on Zach Fruit's deveopment

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Not trying to pick on you, but what does the major league team's ERAs have to do with pitching development? How many Orioles pitchers were drafted and developed by the Orioles on their current staff? Zero.

No one is holding anything against Fruit, just pointing out facts. Just like the fact that despite all his development, he's having a hard time getting High-A right-handed hitters out consistently.

Now, maybe he'll continue to develop and maybe he'll end up guy, as Orioles fans, we sure hope so, but I think if you are going to tout a guy to show off your development system, maybe not pointing out a 24-year old in High-A ball who's stats or stuff really don't scream out, "Wow!"

I've watched Fruit pitch a few times and came away not very impressed. Now guys do improve and I'd never call anyone who can touch high-90s a non prospect when they're 24-years old, but I think there's still a long road ahead. 

Again, I'm not rooting against the guy at all. 

They had a plan and part of that plan was not drafting pitchers high in the draft and it’s worked out pretty good so far.   With hindsight, I wish they had drafted pitchers in rounds 3-5 in the 2021-2022 drafts.   
 

You’re focused on the draft.  Obviously, that’s not where their focus was when it came to putting a pitching staff and team together.    
 

They inherited GRod, Hall, Means, and Kremer.   They traded for Bradish, Povich, and McDermott among others.   
 

Overall, I’d say it’s worked out pretty well, but not perfectly.

Edited July 12 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I feel like this is the operative point. The O’s didn’t just put more into picking pitchers last year, they went pretty heavy with it. I feel like they understand what Tony is saying and have already started to adjust. I hope so. We have all been lamenting the fact that the Orioles have not spent high draft capital on pitching. I honestly wish they did so instead of drafting Bradfield last year. I also hope their top two pics this year are pitchers.

From a roster management perspective, I think it will be easier to find solid players to round out our positional group then it will be to find good pitchers for our staff. I think we need to draft those.

I think we also have to look at the 2nd round where they've spent a lot of money the last few years on guys like Fabian, Beavers, Wagner and Horvath instead of going after a pitcher with upside. Even in last year's "pitcher heavy" draft they took Josenberger who doesn't have a ton of upside and the very next pick the Mets took Kade Morris. Now Morris may never make it either, but watching him sit 93-94 and touch up to 97 with a nice slider that garners whiffs makes me rather have him in the system.

Even the guys they took last yeah have had "meh" results. Jackson Baumeister's walk rate has been bad and has been much worse in the pros then in college, so where's the development? Kiefer Lord (3rd round)? Does he even exist? He pitched 2 innings in the FCL last year never to be heard from again. Levi Wells (4th) and his 7.20 ERA and 5.7 BB/9 excite anybody? 

I think everyone knows me knows that I try to be fair, but I evaluate on what I see, read and what the stats tell us. 

Now the book is not written on any of these guys, but I'd be lying if I said I was overly impressed with any of the top picks. In fact, the only guy I am impressed with Michael Forret (14th rd) who really has a nice three pitch mix. Whoever scouted him did a great job of finding him in junior college and getting him to sign. With the stuff he's showing this year, had he gone on to a 4-year college, he would have been a pretty high draft pick this year so unfortunately, he cost himself some money, but fortunately, he's gotten his pro career started more quickly and could end up in the majors quicker so hopefully it all works out for him.

I'd like to see the Orioles go more with upside arms and maybe, just maybe, take guys with good numbers in college and stop thinking they are smarter than what the stats tell them. I'll be honest, I think the SIGBOT system is overly reliant on "what they looks for" and don't consider there may be a reason why these guys have less than stellar results against college hitters and that's usually consistency. 

A pitcher can throw the greatest shaped curveball or spin the best fastball on occasion to wow the metrics guys, but if he's unable to do it consistently and offsets that with "cookies" that's why they struggle to put up good stats.

I guess the Orioles think they have some system that can help them with consistency, but I don't see the results. Even Povich and McDermott, two guys with good stuff, are still inconsistent. 

 

 

 

[Sports Guy]

 

[Tony-OH]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

They had a plan and part of that plan was not drafting pitchers high in the draft and it’s worked out pretty good so far.   With hindsight, I wish they had drafted pitchers in rounds 3-5 in the 2021-2022 drafts.   
 

You’re focused on the draft.  Obviously, that’s not where their focus was when it came to putting a pitching staff and team together.    
 

They inherited GRod, Hall, Means, and Kremer.   They traded for Bradish, Povich, and McDermott among others.   
 

Overall, I’d say it’s worked out pretty well, but not perfectly.

I agree that they have done a great job in the 1st round and early 2nd round drafting college hitters. After that though, there decision to draft college hitters mostly has been a pretty big bust and you can look around the major leagues and look at major league pitchers drafted since 2019 from the 3rd round on. They've literally only hit on Joey Ortiz (4th round, 2019).

Meanwhile, the Orioles spent millions of dollars and draft capital on

2019: Zach Watson (3rd)
2020: Hudson Haskin (2nd) and Anthony Servideo (3rd)
2021: Reed Trimble (2nd), John Rhodes (3rd, overslot), Donta Williams (4th)
2022: Beavers (1st, 33rd overall), Fabian (2nd), Wagner (2nd), McClean (who they didn't sign and turned into Josenberger in 2023), Silas Ardoin (4th). Just a side note, I was shocked at Ardoin and thought he was a underslot to save up money for someone later but nope, they actually thought he was a 4th round pick even though he couldn't hit water falling out of a boat)
2023: Mac Horvath (2nd) ten rounds before Baumeister.

Not the book is not written on Trimble who's been hurt and all of the guys from 22 and 23 drafts, but none have exactly stood out as guys. 

Now I don't have time to find all of the pitchers they could have drafted who are helping major league teams right now had they not been so myopic on drafting college bats. 

So far, the only college bat drafted after early 2nd round that has done anything for this 2024 team is Joey Ortiz who got us Corbin Burnes for a year.

So we have to pump the breaks that the Orioles draft philosophy has worked after the 1st or early 2nd rounds. 

They've obviously hit on Gunnar, Rutschman, and Westburg who are all helping this team right now. They have Mayo (HS), Holliday (HS), Stowers (2nd rd), and Norby (2nd rd) ready to help in various ways. 

But I think it's valid to question the Orioles drafting philosophy after the 1st round and definitely there ability to evaluate/scout, draft and develop pitching.

Again, Elias has done a great job putting this team together and keeping it doing well (let's just forget the Cubs series) through a ton of pitching injuries. But the fact that pitching is so volatile might be the reason why its better to have MORE arms available then less because the idea that he's just going to trade his extra bats for pitching has really not worked out except for one year of Burnes.

Now this team has pitching issues and backlog of hitting prospects. Now we'll see if he uses them to acquire what he needs at the trading deadline and also, can they evaluate the right guys to get. After seeing Flaherty and Fuji as this trade deadline deals last year, I have some questions there too. But that's another thread.

[clapdiddy]

Totally agree with Tony's take on the pitching development. 

It would be nice to see some more "fruit" from the pitching side of player development.   Guys like Povich and McDermott get a "meh" thus far.   They obviously did well with Bradish before he developed arm problems.    Cano was dominant for half of a season.   I know there are some other younger guys that are on the radar, but likely will be longer-term additions.  I don't see anyone on the horizon who could provide some type of impact on the bullpen OR rotation.

 

[Sports Guy]

I don’t really know how you can argue against what Tony is saying.

I said this stuff on draft day. I know I know, we all think we are draft experts and know more than Elias. I get it, I know the cry baby narrative come backs that people have.

That being said, the issue has been less about the exact player as it has been the philosophy. Now, I personally have no issue with targeting position players early. They are easier to develop and they are less risky. If there is a “moneyball” way to draft, I think that’s it.

But the lack of real arms knocking on the door, both starter and reliever is pretty glaring.

I had a former scout DM me on twitter the other day (some of you know who it is interacting him over the years) and said that this years college closer/reliever class is strong and that he felt the Os should not only grab one early but that it’s also possible some could contribute this year. It’s a stretch but we have seen it happen before.

I have long been a proponent of drafting some relievers..or even starters who aren’t going to stay at starter and getting these guys as “cheap” picks (because they aren’t going to go back to school) and save some money that way.

I would just like to see a different approach. Every team, every year finds a way to sign over slot guys whether they have a big signing pool or not. There are so many ways around it but signing college OFers that look the same to what we already have to slot or over slot deals kills our budget and doesn’t give us much hope for a good class imo.

I do like that they have shown a willingness to go after guys in the 11-20 round range and give them a bigger bonus to sign, like Forret. Just want to see a similar strategy done earlier.

[Sports Guy]

Btw, with all of that being said, the development program and how they are going about it is just worlds different than years past.  It’s great to see but we need to see results from it, not just good feelings.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I think last year’s draft was the first year of a period where the Orioles will use a lot more draft capital on pitchers. Here’s what I think the philosophy was, how it’s gone and where it is now:

1. Prioritize draft capital to college hitters, based on analytics showing those are most reliable expected value. The absurd hit rate on the most valuable picks outweighs everything, but Tony’s right that (since Ortiz) there’s lot of mid round picks that haven’t panned out on either all-tools guys or no-tools, not very high upside guys (until maybe Etzel this year).

2. Pre 2023, target late pitchers with little draft capital based on pitch characteristics. Tony’s right this hasn’t worked at all. Baumler being one of the few high upside arms they spent capital on being constantly hurt doesn’t help.

3. Pre 2023, since you’re not spending draft capital on pitchers, target lower level pitching prospects in trades that have better data to evaluate, and develop them. Elias has said he likes to target pitching prospects this way. This worked very well with Bradish, Povich and McDermott, and their development program should still get a lot of credit for them.

4. 2023 draft, the team is now contending and has an absurd group of positional players that can be the core of the team for the next 5 years. Not going to be sellers anymore, so we can’t get pitching prospects that way, and the need for positional prospects is much lower. Shift towards spending higher draft capital on pitchers (but not the first round pick, since the data so strongly says that should be a college hitter). Baumeister being underwhelming and the Lord and Sharkey injuries mean the early results are mixed, but the jury is still out. They’re still prioritizing pitch characteristics over performance, but they are not alone across the league in that approach.

5. This year with a very weak draft, we might even see a college pitcher round 1. I’d still be shocked to see this FO take a HS pitcher with a lot of draft capital, but I think we’ll have a repeat of last year allocating a lot more towards pitching, because that was the plan in the first place and the “safer” college hitters being a weak group only further reinforces that approach.

 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Not trying to pick on you, but what does the major league team's ERAs have to do with pitching development? How many Orioles pitchers were drafted and developed by the Orioles on their current staff? Zero.

No one is holding anything against Fruit, just pointing out facts. Just like the fact that despite all his development, he's having a hard time getting High-A right-handed hitters out consistently.

Now, maybe he'll continue to develop and maybe he'll end up guy, as Orioles fans, we sure hope so, but I think if you are going to tout a guy to show off your development system, maybe not pointing out a 24-year old in High-A ball who's stats or stuff really don't scream out, "Wow!"

I've watched Fruit pitch a few times and came away not very impressed. Now guys do improve and I'd never call anyone who can touch high-90s a non prospect when they're 24-years old, but I think there's still a long road ahead. 

Again, I'm not rooting against the guy at all. 

My only point about the ERA is that I don’t see the Pirates’ ERA as anything to write home about, and therefore I’m not ready to anoint their pitching development staff as anything special.  I agree that the Orioles’ ERA doesn’t say that much about their development either, though there are a number of guys on the staff not drafted in the Elias regime but developed during it.

As to Fruit, I have no idea if he’ll be good or not, I just don’t want to write him off because he was 23 when he was drafted.  The things in the article that most interested me were the special ball they use to give instant feedback on spin, and just the process they’ve used to convert him from a 2-pitch pitcher to a 5-pitch pitcher.  It’s just interesting to get an inside look at the processes they’re following, whether they’re above average at pitching development or not.  And Meoli is good at digging into those types of details, regardless of whether it’s a puff piece.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, with all of that being said, the development program and how they are going about it is just worlds different than years past.  It’s great to see but we need to see results from it, not just good feelings.

The development program is absolutely leap years ahead of where it was. No one should or can argue that with any merit. Saying that, until we start to see pitching develop and make an impact at the major league level for the team, it will remain a disappointment. 

What we do know is that they have not been able to develop the lower drafted pitchers into anything yet despite the "pitch shapes and spin rates" that they treasure. Last year they spent a 2nd, 4th and 5th pick on pitching and the best guy they look like they drafted is Forret (14th). It's early on these guys of course, but usually guys that are going to be special tend to do special things early on or at least flash that promise. 

I'm interested in seeing the route they go in this draft.

[Tony-OH]

19 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I think last year’s draft was the first year of a period where the Orioles will use a lot more draft capital on pitchers. Here’s what I think the philosophy was, how it’s gone and where it is now:

1. Prioritize draft capital to college hitters, based on analytics showing those are most reliable expected value. The absurd hit rate on the most valuable picks outweighs everything, but Tony’s right that (since Ortiz) there’s lot of mid round picks that haven’t panned out on either all-tools guys or no-tools, not very high upside guys (until maybe Etzel this year).

2. Pre 2023, target late pitchers with little draft capital based on pitch characteristics. Tony’s right this hasn’t worked at all. Baumler being one of the few high upside arms they spent capital on being constantly hurt doesn’t help.

3. Pre 2023, since you’re not spending draft capital on pitchers, target lower level pitching prospects in trades that have better data to evaluate, and develop them. Elias has said he likes to target pitching prospects this way. This worked very well with Bradish, Povich and McDermott, and their development program should still get a lot of credit for them.

4. 2023 draft, the team is now contending and has an absurd group of positional players that can be the core of the team for the next 5 years. Not going to be sellers anymore, so we can’t get pitching prospects that way, and the need for positional prospects is much lower. Shift towards spending higher draft capital on pitchers (but not the first round pick, since the data so strongly says that should be a college hitter). Baumeister being underwhelming and the Lord and Sharkey injuries mean the early results are mixed, but the jury is still out. They’re still prioritizing pitch characteristics over performance, but they are not alone across the league in that approach.

5. This year with a very weak draft, we might even see a college pitcher round 1. I’d still be shocked to see this FO take a HS pitcher with a lot of draft capital, but I think we’ll have a repeat of last year allocating a lot more towards pitching, because that was the plan in the first place and the “safer” college hitters being a weak group only further reinforces that approach.

 

Great post BTW. 

I'd like to comment on your 3rd point where Elias likes to trade for pitching prospects already in minor league systems. Yes, and he and his pro scouts have done a good job targeting Bradish, Povich, Cano and McDermott and maybe even Seth Johnson still. The problem is the Orioles have done that by trading away at the deadline or back when they were selling off useful major league pieces. 

They've yet to complete a position player prospect for pitching prospects. So in that regard, I'm not sure how many more trades to get those kinds guys can he make now? Maybe he will surprise us and trade away a Hays or a Mountcastle along with maybe Stowers, Norby kinds of guys to get that pitching, but that remains to be seen.

[Tony-OH]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My only point about the ERA is that I don’t see the Pirates’ ERA as anything to write home about, and therefore I’m not ready to anoint their pitching development staff as anything special.  I agree that the Orioles’ ERA doesn’t say that much about their development either, though there are a number of guys on the staff not drafted in the Elias regime but developed during it.

As to Fruit, I have no idea if he’ll be good or not, I just don’t want to write him off because he was 23 when he was drafted.  The things in the article that most interested me were the special ball they use to give instant feedback on spin, and just the process they’ve used to convert him from a 2-pitch pitcher to a 5-pitch pitcher.  It’s just interesting to get an inside look at the processes they’re following, whether they’re above average at pitching development or not.  And Meoli is good at digging into those types of details, regardless of whether it’s a puff piece.

One of my concerns is that the Orioles teach their pitchers so many pitches. When you look at some of these guys when they reach AAA and we get statcast data on them, some like Povich and McDermott throw everything but the kitchen sink. then we wonder why they are not consistent. I'd personally rather see them focus on no more than 4 pitches so they can learn to master and command them. then when they get to the big leagues, let them tinker once they've had some success. 

And for some of these guys, give them the two best pitches, develop them as relievers, and get them up the chain quickly. It seems like the Orioles are intent on developing almost all of their pitchers as starters when you can tell by several factors that their most likely role will be as a reliever.

Training a pitcher to be a reliever is a skill. they have to see if the recover fast enough, can pitch on back to back days or in the Orioles case, sometimes 3 or 4 out of 7 games.

Fruit doesn't need 5 pitches. If he's going to be a starter he needs three good pitches. If he's going to be a reliever, he needs two pitches, three maybe. 

[emmett16]

On 7/11/2024 at 12:41 PM, Frobby said:

Jon Meoli has a great article up in the Banner today, focusing on Zach Fruit (2023 9th rounder) and an example of the Orioles' drafting and development processes.   Fruit has gone from being a two-pitch pitcher when drafted to a five-pitch pitcher 5 months after his first spring training. Here's a few quotes:

Holt said: “You can go look for the best player on the board or look for the best fit on what you can develop. I think we’re very clear on what we value. It doesn’t always necessarily mean a guy who’s a high-profile guy. We have a way of evaluating things on a very baseline level that allows us to zero in on who we like and why.”

* * *

Early on [after joining the O's, Fruit] added a four-seam fastball to pair with his two-seamer. Using what’s called a Clean Fuego ball, a training tool that’s basically a baseball with two flat sides and provides immediate feedback on spin direction, he was able to add a riding fastball that plays up in the strike zone alongside his horizontal two-seamer.

He also found a grip that worked with his changeup, using a one-seam grip that helped the pitch generate deep fade out of his hand in a way he’d never accomplished before. That spring training work with Jordie Henry, Aberdeen’s pitching coach, and Andy Sadoski, the pitching coach at Delmarva, took the organization by surprise.

“Every time he threw a changeup off the mound in spring training, we were able to take a look at it, see the movement on TrackMan, see how it’s coming off his fingertips in slow motion on the video, be able to make adjustments from pitch to pitch to really perfect how that ball is coming out of his hand, perfect how that ball is spinning on the way to home plate,” Sadoski said. “We’ve seen that movement increase quite a bit here in a short period of time.”

Henry said: “We went pretty hard into some pitch design things that went very, very quickly for him.”

Recognizing a “massive step forward” with Fruit’s changeup and his four-seamer, Herrmann said, the work shifted to further solidifying the curveball and creating distinctions between the two-seam fastball and the four-seam. For that, they looked at the characteristics and movement of Bradish’s sinker to “help him expedite the learning of that pitch” based on how Bradish developed and throws it,” Herrmann said.

* * *

“I think it’s possible with having really good tools, evaluation tools, and for sort of everyone being on the same page as to what is good and what is doable, essentially,” vice president of player development and domestic scouting Matt Blood said. “What is workable? What can be improved? And know exactly where to go and how. So you’ve got to have really good tools to use, really good information, and you have to have really good people who know to use that information and impact change on the player.”

Clean Fuego is a great tool.  I highly recommend for any player.  It's great to teach youth players to throw through the ball and not around it.  Pro and upper level amateurs can use it for pitch shaping, but it's awesome for young guys to work on throwing the ball straight and efficiently.  Historically players would use hockey pucks.  But the clean fuego (the regular version)  is a build on that concept.  It's the same weight as a baseball and has seems to help with grip. 

It's also pretty darn cool the company headquarters is right here in Rockville, MD.  Neat to see a local company on the national scale changing the game a bit.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

41 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Great post BTW. 

I'd like to comment on your 3rd point where Elias likes to trade for pitching prospects already in minor league systems. Yes, and he and his pro scouts have done a good job targeting Bradish, Povich, Cano and McDermott and maybe even Seth Johnson still. The problem is the Orioles have done that by trading away at the deadline or back when they were selling off useful major league pieces. 

They've yet to complete a position player prospect for pitching prospects. So in that regard, I'm not sure how many more trades to get those kinds guys can he make now? Maybe he will surprise us and trade away a Hays or a Mountcastle along with maybe Stowers, Norby kinds of guys to get that pitching, but that remains to be seen.

Thanks, and agreed. Prospect for prospect trades are exceedingly rare, and trades for controllable SPs at the MLB level are very rare and super expensive even when they happen. I’m sure they’ll be open to sending off some of the remaking vets for pitching prospects if it makes sense, but the priority is going to be improving the MLB team.

I think the pipeline of trading for low level pitching prospects is dried up now. That was what I was getting at in #4 and #5, they previously punted on spending big draft capital on pitching because they had that preferred trade option, but that’s not an option anymore. So they have to spend more draft capital on it now.

 

[Tony-OH]

14 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Thanks, and agreed. Prospect for prospect trades are exceedingly rare, and trades for controllable SPs at the MLB level are very rare and super expensive even when they happen. I’m sure they’ll be open to sending off some of the remaking vets for pitching prospects if it makes sense, but the priority is going to be improving the MLB team.

I think the pipeline of trading for low level pitching prospects is dried up now. That was what I was getting at in #4 and #5, they previously punted on spending big draft capital on pitching because they had that preferred trade option, but that’s not an option anymore. So they have to spend more draft capital on it now.

 

Agreed on all points. It will be interesting to see what they do in this draft.