Trading for Tarik Skubal

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

That was not the original point. My point was that he does have value. Even if it is as a lesser piece for a bigger name like you said yourself, that means he has value. I never said he was headlining a deal for a bigger piece, I specifically said he wasn’t. So again, not sure what point you’re trying to argue because seems like we are pretty much on the same page. 

I'm not arguing, but a guy who "looks like he can be a solid regular in the MLB" gets a good player on his own. It appears other talent evaluators for each team might not fully buy into the quote.

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, Malike said:

But that is the original point. If Norby had enough value to get an upgrade for the ML team, he would not be with the organization. He will be a lesser piece for a bigger name. Could Norby bring back a Fujinami type? Sure, but he's not helping the team.

You’re joking, right.  We traded a non prospect for Fuji.   I’m not sure about Tanner Scott but Norby could bring back a good reliever by himself.

[LGOrioles]

5 minutes ago, Malike said:

I'm not arguing, but a guy who "looks like he can be a solid regular in the MLB" gets a good player on his own. It appears other talent evaluators for each team might not fully buy into the quote.

It depends what you think a solid regular is. I think he would be about league average with the bat and below average defensively. That’s pretty much what Urias has been this year and he’s on pace for about 1.5 WAR if you give him 600 PA’s. That’s not a great player on a team like the O’s but it’s still better than what a lot of teams are throwing out there. 

Doesn’t mean that teams are going to be breaking the door down to trade for him, because he’s probably not super exciting to trade for since there’s no huge tools to dream on. But I guess we’ll see if anyone likes him enough in the next week or so.

[interloper]

19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You’re joking, right.  We traded a non prospect for Fuji.   I’m not sure about Tanner Scott but Norby could bring back a good reliever by himself.

Agree. And Flaherty was headlined by Prieto and Rom, neither of whom were better prospects than Norby in any way.

Edited July 23 by interloper

[Malike]

22 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You’re joking, right.  We traded a non prospect for Fuji.   I’m not sure about Tanner Scott but Norby could bring back a good reliever by himself.

Well, we'll know for sure by the deadline, because we need a good reliever, let's see if Norby gets us one all by himself. Good relievers haven't been cheap at the deadline but I trust your judgement and expect a good reliever in a 1 for 1.

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Malike said:

Well, we'll know for sure by the deadline, because we need a good reliever, let's see if Norby gets us one all by himself. Good relievers haven't been cheap at the deadline but I trust your judgement and expect a good reliever in a 1 for 1.

Jordan Hicks was a decent rental reliever last year.  The Jays gave up their #7 prospect and someone not even in their top 30 (I assume because they didn’t mention his ranking.

The Mariners traded their close, Paul Seward to Arizona.  They received utility man Josh Rojas, the 19th ranked prospect, and the 29th ranked prospect.

IMO, those weren’t high prices.

MLB currently has Norby as our #5 prospect and I’d have to assume our system, even with graduations, is deeper and better than the Jays was at this time last year.

So, could Norby bring back a Carlos Estevez?   I certainly think so although Elias will probably try to get him or someone else for even less.

[Fuzzball22]

10 hours ago, Malike said:

Likely AAV or Average Annual Value. (Dollars per year).

I appreciate the reply and i probably did not explain it very well. It was a rating of minor league players but it was just one number. Like AV 45?

[interloper]

Still view this as the best possible move the Orioles can make, if the Tigers acquiesce. 

• Lefty with big stuff and excellent command
• A no-brainer #2 in the playoffs
• Becomes the ace next year
• Cheap arb-eligible contract

There's hardly a more sensible fit for this team. And I see it less about whether Elias is willing to part with, say, Basallo or Mayo, than the Tigers being unsure if they want to sell him yet. 

Edited July 23 by interloper

[elextrano8]

1 hour ago, Fuzzball22 said:

I appreciate the reply and i probably did not explain it very well. It was a rating of minor league players but it was just one number. Like AV 45?

Could it be FV? If so, it means "Future Value:"

Quote

  What is FV?

FV stands for Future Value, and it’s the way we distill each player’s scouting evaluation into a single expression. Broadly stated, Future Value is a grade on the 20-80 scale that maps to anticipated annual WAR production during the player’s first six years of service.
 

 

Edited July 23 by elextrano8

[gamiliel]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Still view this as the best possible move the Orioles can make, if the Tigers acquiesce. 

• Lefty with big stuff and excellent command
• A no-brainer #2 in the playoffs
• Becomes the ace next year
• Cheap arb-eligible contract

There's hardly a more sensible fit for this team. And I see it less about whether Elias is willing to part with, say, Basallo or Mayo, than the Tigers being unsure if they want to sell him yet. 

Agreed....though their pundits are talking about two of our big three which we will not do. But Mayo and Kjerstad with one more lesser added might be too hard for them to pass up. They get perhaps two middle of the order bats for 6 years.

[Roll Tide]

 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

 

I think it’s tempting but I’d prefer going a different route.   It all sounds great until Skubal has a tired arm or breaks down in September.   Even a healthy, dominant Skubal guarantees nothing.   If we get knocked out in the ALCS or worse or if Skubal gets injured it has the potential of the Glenn Davis trade.

I watched Skubal for the first 3 innings last night.   Impressive but not dominant.  Sure, it’s only one start and he only gave up one run but he also gave up 10 hits.  He’s not invincible and he’s headed for somewhere he’s never been before.  180+ innings.   

[Malike]

1 hour ago, Fuzzball22 said:

I appreciate the reply and i probably did not explain it very well. It was a rating of minor league players but it was just one number. Like AV 45?

Maybe you mean FV? (Future Value). FV tries to sum up the value of a player into a number on the scouting grade scale (20-80). For example, say a FV 50 player correlates to a 2 WAR player, and so on.

[Roll Tide]

10 minutes ago, Malike said:

Maybe you mean FV? (Future Value). FV tries to sum up the value of a player into a number on the scouting grade scale (20-80). For example, say a FV 50 player correlates to a 2 WAR player, and so on.

Hitter WAR Mapped to 20-80 

Hitter WAR Mapped to 20-80 Scale

Scouting Scale	Role	WAR
20	Org guy	—
30	Up & Down	<-0.1
40	Bench Player	0.0 to 0.7
45	Low End Reg/Platoon	0.8 to 1.5
50	Avg Everyday Player	1.6 to 2.4
55	Above Avg Reg	2.5 to 3.3
60	All Star	3.4 to 4.9
70	Top 10 overall	5.0 to 7.0
80	Top 5 overall	> 7.0

 

 

Pitcher WAR Mapped to 20-80 Scale

Scouting Scale	Role	WAR
20	Org Guy	–
30	Up & Down	< -0.1
40	Backend starters, FIP typically close to 5.00	0.0 to 0.9
45	#4/5 starters, FIP approx 4.20	1.0 to 1.7
50	#4 starters. Approx 4.00 FIP, at times worse but then with lots of innings	1.8 to 2.5
55	#3/4 starters. Approx 3.70 FIP along with about 160 IP	2.6 to 3.4
60	#3 starters, 3.30 FIP, volume approaching 200 innings	3.5 to 4.9
70	#2 starters, FIP under 3, about 200 IP	5.0 to 7.0
80	#1s. Top 1-3 arms in baseball. ‘Ace’ if they do it several years in a row.	>7.0

[waroriole]

28 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think it’s tempting but I’d prefer going a different route.   It all sounds great until Skubal has a tired arm or breaks down in September.   Even a healthy, dominant Skubal guarantees nothing.   If we get knocked out in the ALCS or worse or if Skubal gets injured it has the potential of the Glenn Davis trade.

I watched Skubal for the first 3 innings last night.   Impressive but not dominant.  Sure, it’s only one start and he only gave up one run but he also gave up 10 hits.  He’s not invincible and he’s headed for somewhere he’s never been before.  180+ innings.   

How is it tempting? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.