Fangraphs top 50 trade value list 2024

[Say O!]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Westburg:

“Not the Orioles second baseman you expected to see on this list, huh? I guess Jackson Holliday is on here too (albeit further down), but I don’t think many people expected Westburg to be the young standout putting up spectacular major league numbers halfway through the season. Here’s some inside dirt on the making of this list: I ranked Westburg aggressively high so that I could learn what people really thought of him when they told me to move him lower. It didn’t work, though. Everyone just agreed with where I had him and moved on. In that sense, maybe it actually worked very well.

“If you put Westburg’s numbers under a microscope, nothing looks particularly weird or unsustainable. He comes up to the plate looking to do damage, putting his solid sense of the strike zone to work proactively. He hits a ton of fly balls and pops homers to all fields. Camden Yards is a terrible home park for him, in fact, thanks to the new left field cutout, but he’s slugging his way through it. Projection systems have seen all they need to; they universally think Westburg is going to continue to be a plus bat going forward.

“There were some early questions about his defensive viability, but he looks perfectly acceptable to me. I’d call Westburg an average defender at second and third, and that versatility is nice. That goes a long way towards describing his overall game, really. He can play a few spots defensively, he’s a reasonable bat up and down the lineup, he runs the bases well — every team could use more Westburgs. He’s 25, he won’t be a free agent until after the 2029 season, he’s mashing in the majors right now, and he’s projected to keep doing so. Sounds like a pretty good deal to me.”

 

Man what a difference a year makes in Westys value.  And that writeup summarizes it beautifully.

Westy ranks one spot behind Robert (someone who has been discussed frequently here on OH as trade target), which makes for interesting challenge — who would Os fans rather have, Westy or Robert?

[Sports Guy]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-trade-value-nos-1-10/
 

Adley 9th and Gunnar 1st.

[Frobby]

So to recap:

1. Henderson

9. Rutschman

29. Westburg

37. Holliday 

47. Rodriguez

HM - Basallo, Burnes, Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo

All in one org.

 

[banks703]

Can't get any higher than #1 so Gunnar may end up fluctuating through a top 5ish ranking over the next few years but I think that every other member (besides Adley) have will either move into or up this Top 50, including the HM guys. 

Sure would be nice to have some additional pitching in there though. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Can't get any higher than #1 so Gunnar may end up fluctuating through a top 5ish ranking over the next few years but I think that every other member (besides Adley) have will either move into or up this Top 50, including the HM guys. 

Sure would be nice to have some additional pitching in there though. 

Generally speaking, years of control is very important to these rankings.  Adley is down from 5 to 9 not because of any diminution in performance, but simply because he only has 3.3 years of control remaining compared to 4.3 last year, and the year he “lost” is a pre-Arb season that comes incredibly cheaply.  Gunnar will be in that same spot next year, so he’s almost certain to drop several spots unless he somehow is even better next year than this one.   Witt on the other hand doesn’t need to move down because he’s under contract for quite a long time.   Of course, there’s something the O’s could do that might keep Gunnar at no. 1….

[Just Regular]

Witt got the #2 spot over Skenes, with Clemens story basically calling it a tie.

Considering they were both 2019 high school draftees, one separator for me is Gunnar 6.29.2001 being a full year younger than Witt 6.14.2000.    I guess June babies one of those gray area months of birth which year to start kindergarten.     If their graduation ceremonies fell late June, it would have been a momentary 19-17 age in years difference.

It was nice seeing the grid of Witt upcoming salaries right next to Gunnar's 2025-2028 of minimum, then Arb 1/2/3.     The Witt numbers are about 4/72 for those seasons.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

 

Considering they were both 2019 high school draftees, one separator for me is Gunnar 6.29.2001 being a full year younger than Witt 6.14.2000.    I guess June babies one of those gray area months of birth which year to start kindergarten.    

 

Witt was quite old for a high school senior.   I’d guess 90%+ of June babies would have been finishing high school right at their 18th birthday, like Gunnar.  Witt’s the outlier there.  

[webbrick2010]

Were we in on Puk?

If so how did we not beat Diamondbacks offer?

He would have stabilized the bullpen

 

 

[sevastras]

Im not sure why anyone wouldn’t want to lock up Gunnar for the remainder of his career. He is special(haha remember all the people wanting to send him down last year?), and seems to be of incredible character and class(which may have been the knock on Manny).  If KC can lock up Witt, I see no reason the Os can’t afford to lock up Gunnar and Adley. We have yet to see what new ownership’s spending philosophy is. Previous ownership’s philosophy was to be cheap and then find a terrible contract to make, see Davis and Bonilla. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Adley at #9 is by far the highest player with only 3 years of control after this season. The next highest is Logan Gilbert at #23. 

Skubal is the highest with only 2 years remaining after this year at #24, so expect that Adley could see a pretty big drop in next year’s list. 

[glenn__davis]

Just now, CaptainRedbeard said:

Adley at #9 is by far the highest player with only 3 years of control after this season. The next highest is Logan Gilbert at #23. 

Skubal is the highest with only 2 years remaining after this year at #24, so expect that Adley could see a pretty big drop in next year’s list. 

Good point, and just shows how much years of control is valued in these exercises and undervalued (IMO) by fans.