AL playoff picture

[Malike]

1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

I generally am not a fan of run differential as it's not a point in time thing. Injuries, deadline additions, callups, yada, yada all factor into how a team looks going into the playoffs as opposed to 10k foot view of what the entire season looked like.

To me, the Tigers are hot, young, playing incredibly well buttoned up baseball and even though they sold at the deadline, they didn't fire sale and the young guys they called up have been pitching well. And I don't think the Orioles matchup well w/ the Tigers because of the excellent lefty starting pitching + opener strategy coupled with a damn near elite bullpen with a very good defense.

I put together this in another thread on my reasoning why I don't want to face the Tigers:

 

The bottom line is, you think we aren't good enough to beat the Tigers, so we aren't good enough to win the World Series then?

[LookitsPuck]

5 minutes ago, Malike said:

The bottom line is, you think we aren't good enough to beat the Tigers, so we aren't good enough to win the World Series then?

I think the Rangers proved that anything can happen. I'm not going to say that the O's can't beat the Tigers. I'm just saying I don't prefer to face them considering other options.

The plus side for the O's is that for most of the 6 times they faced the Tigers they were without regulars and/or the regulars were just coming back from injury. This is a different team now, so maybe those close games (Saturday, Sunday) are different if you play it back. But I'd also say that the O's didn't face Skubal in any of those 6 games.

[waroriole]

8 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I generally am not a fan of run differential as it's not a point in time thing. Injuries, deadline additions, callups, yada, yada all factor into how a team looks going into the playoffs as opposed to 10k foot view of what the entire season looked like.

To me, the Tigers are hot, young, playing incredibly well buttoned up baseball and even though they sold at the deadline, they didn't fire sale and the young guys they called up have been pitching, hitting and playing well. And I don't think the Orioles matchup well w/ the Tigers because of the excellent lefty starting pitching + opener strategy coupled with a damn near elite bullpen with a very good defense.

I put together this in another thread on my reasoning why I don't want to face the Tigers:

 

To me I see a team playing over their heads. They have two good hitters (Greene and Carpenter). We’ll be running our best arms out to neutralize any pitching advantage. Any playoff team is gonna be tough, but I’d rather play Detroit than any other team who will qualify. 

[Malike]

8 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I think the Rangers proved that anything can happen. I'm not going to say that the O's can't beat the Tigers. I'm just saying I don't prefer to face them considering other options.

The plus side for the O's is that for most of the 6 times they faced the Tigers they were without regulars and/or the regulars were just coming back from injury. This is a different team now, so maybe those close games (Saturday, Sunday) are different if you play it back. But I'd also say that the O's didn't face Skubal in any of those 6 games.

I think there is an advantage in only facing Skubal once, instead of twice. Burnes ran out 14IP 3H 0ER and 15K's against the Tigers. We can match up for 1 game with Skubal.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Malike said:

I think there is an advantage in only facing Skubal once, instead of twice. Burnes ran out 14IP 3H 0ER and 15K's against the Tigers. We can match up for 1 game with Skubal.

I'm trying to wrap my head around the idea that a matchup with Detroit is inevitable.

[Just Regular]

35 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

2 more wins by both DET and KC.

Hey, no Norby and Stowers slander...there is still a game tonight

I can't imagine the Friday night game begins on time in Atlanta tomorrow but with a loss tonight and DET-KC jumping out to leads in Friday games with earlier start times, the Twins odds could be virtually nil by first pitch.

[LookitsPuck]

7 minutes ago, waroriole said:

To me I see a team playing over their heads. They have two good hitters (Greene and Carpenter). We’ll be running our best arms out to neutralize any pitching advantage. Any playoff team is gonna be tough, but I’d rather play Detroit than any other team who will qualify. 

How is this playing over their heads?

• Pitching
  • July: 4.12 ERA
  • August: 3.02
  • September: 2.56
• Offense
  • July: 3.6 R/G
  • August: 4.7 R/G
  • September:  4.3 R/G

Defense is very good. Bullpen is excellent. And they have more than two good hitters:

• Riley Greene - 836 OPS
• Kerry Carpenter - 931 OPS
• Meadows - 739 OPS
• Vierling - 732 OPS
• Kelly - 716 OPS
• Canha - 685 OPS, but is typically a ~750 OPS hitter

And they have a bunch of other role players that are decent. Is that a world beating offense? No. But let's not make this club out to be a team that only scores 3 a game. They're a 4.2 R/G club and with that pitching and defense is good enough. They don't really have any major flaws. They're an incredibly solid, young team with a lot of upside (Colt Keith, for example). Hell, even Torkelson has an 870 OPS over the last couple weeks while batting 275. 

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm trying to wrap my head around the idea that a matchup with Detroit is inevitable.

They are flying high, and so were the Orioles last year, and then the bright lights come on in the playoffs, and who knows how you respond.

If you have to beat them at some point, might as well be early. The only thing we control is HF advantage, the rest is a crapshoot. Bring it on.

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Hey, no Norby and Stowers slander...there is still a game tonight

I can't imagine the Friday night game begins on time in Atlanta tomorrow but with a loss tonight and DET-KC jumping out to leads in Friday games with earlier start times, the Twins odds could be virtually nil by first pitch.

Hopefully Orioles beat Yanks tonight and clinch home field. 

Yeah if Twins lose tonight any realistic hope is pretty much gone except a sweep by ATL over KC   

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Malike said:

They are flying high, and so were the Orioles last year, and then the bright lights come on in the playoffs, and who knows how you respond.

If you have to beat them at some point, might as well be early. The only thing we control is HF advantage, the rest is a crapshoot. Bring it on.

The Orioles, Dodgers and Braves were all flying high last season.

 

[LookitsPuck]

7 minutes ago, Malike said:

I think there is an advantage in only facing Skubal once, instead of twice. Burnes ran out 14IP 3H 0ER and 15K's against the Tigers. We can match up for 1 game with Skubal.

Oh, sure. And Burnes remembering how to pitch effectively recently is huge. That Game 1 would be a toss up, but I'd probably give the edge to Skubal and the Tigers bullpen. The O's have the worst bullpen amongst playoff teams aside from the Royals (who are very close). 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Fiver6565 said:

The numbers you are quoting, though, simply do not reflect who the Tigers are right now.  They were pretty bad the first half of the season, and those numbers reflect that.  They aren't that team anymore.  Their offense isn't awesome but its good enough given their pitching.

There can be a tendency to put to much weight on what’s happened the last few weeks.  In 6 games against us, they scored 18 runs total.  Not a fearsome offense.  Will we score more runs than we did in those 6 games (20)?   Will the distribution of runs in each game work out in our favor next time?   Will we have better batted ball luck?  

[Royle]

Detroit has gone 30-11 since August 10th.  That’s more than a few hot weeks.

[eddie83]

26 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

How is this playing over their heads?

• Pitching
  • July: 4.12 ERA
  • August: 3.02
  • September: 2.56
• Offense
  • July: 3.6 R/G
  • August: 4.7 R/G
  • September:  4.3 R/G

Defense is very good. Bullpen is excellent. And they have more than two good hitters:

• Riley Greene - 836 OPS
• Kerry Carpenter - 931 OPS
• Meadows - 739 OPS
• Vierling - 732 OPS
• Kelly - 716 OPS
• Canha - 685 OPS, but is typically a ~750 OPS hitter

And they have a bunch of other role players that are decent. Is that a world beating offense? No. But let's not make this club out to be a team that only scores 3 a game. They're a 4.2 R/G club and with that pitching and defense is good enough. They don't really have any major flaws. They're an incredibly solid, young team with a lot of upside (Colt Keith, for example). Hell, even Torkelson has an 870 OPS over the last couple weeks while batting 275. 

Our park caters to LHH. Greene and Carpenter are concerns for sure. The Orioles LH relievers need to come up big. 

[RichmondVA Orio]

24 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Oh, sure. And Burnes remembering how to pitch effectively recently is huge. That Game 1 would be a toss up, but I'd probably give the edge to Skubal and the Tigers bullpen. The O's have the worst bullpen amongst playoff teams aside from the Royals (who are very close). 

My guess is the Os would be favored in that matchup at home. I’ll go with the term, favorite.