Should the Orioles take the BPA or the Best Fit?

[allstar1579]

The Orioles need ML ready talent, and that is the best fit. We need to use the draft as a pipeline to get talent onto the club ASAP at the positions where we do not have long term solutions.

We have long term solutions at C, 2B, RF, LF, CF and P.

We need 1B, SS and 3B.

We also need not ML ready talent so that we have people to replace players that are moving on/ineffective over the next 4-5 years. That is how you build a successful franchise, not a fantasy baseball team.

Taking a great HS arm would go a long way towards improving depth and building a successful franchise. This is where we went wrong in the 90's. We built for ML ready players and impact FA like you keep clamoring for, and when we tanked we had nothing to replace anything and are STILL trying to recover.

The hardest part of building a good club is knowing that it is a never ending string of coming and goings, and having replacements ready is what makes a team a perennial contender i.e. Boston, NYY, CLE, MIN, OAK and so on.

[JTrea81]

SOL -- there really isn't any ML-ready SS/3B/1B talent at the 1:5 level. You could try and grab someone like Ryan Wheeler if he falls to 2:5, but there isn't anyone at those three positions worth taking at 1:5, with the exception of Grant Green.

Definitely options in the 2/3/4 rounds, but you're not getting the quick-fix type player you seem to be seeking.

Ackley has been playing 1B all year with limited OF play. I'd draft him as a Nick Swisher type. Somebody that can play the OF corners and 1B...

Start him out at 1B and then move him to LF if we can get a better 1B man.

[WebLink21]

I think that we are going to take Grant Green. I have a feeling that Ackley may take over as the top position player in the draft. With the "bad" season Green has been having, would everyone be happy with the pick? I would be ecstatic to have a prospect at that position in the system. I think he would be ready right as Izturis's contract runs out and we are ready to contend.

[allstar1579]

I think that we are going to take Grant Green. I have a feeling that Ackley may take over as the top position player in the draft. With the "bad" season Green has been having, would everyone be happy with the pick? I would be ecstatic to have a prospect at that position in the system. I think he would be ready right as Izturis's contract runs out and we are ready to contend.

I don't know, the more I see of him, I see someone that was touted because he was the best of a weak class that was a position of weakness for us. I'd much rather have Matzek or Ackley at this point. I'd need to see a little more from Green before I was as comfortable with him.

[LookinUp]

I don't know, the more I see of him, I see someone that was touted because he was the best of a weak class that was a position of weakness for us. I'd much rather have Matzek or Ackley at this point. I'd need to see a little more from Green before I was as comfortable with him.

I think our options will be much more clear in a couple of months.

[TJ Wrangler]

I would have taken Posey last year. The only reason I dropped him on my board was that he came out with a $12mios asking price the night before the draft, which put him right below Matusz for me. He was in contention for the #1 overall slot along with Alvarez and T. Beckham. To be honest, I think Tampa Bay had the same thought. He was a perfect fit for them, but I don't think they wanted the hastle when Beckham would sign right away and get started (not saying they didn't want Beckham, just that I think they would have strongly considered Posey up to the jump in asking price).

Interesting. Had Tampa picked Posey, that would have assured that one of Beckham, Alvarez, or Hosmer would have fallen to us, and I would have drafted any of the 3 over Matusz, with my preference being Alvarez, Hosmer, and a coin toss between Beckham and Matusz.

[Stotle]

Interesting. Had Tampa picked Posey, that would have assured that one of Beckham, Alvarez, or Hosmer would have fallen to us, and I would have drafted any of the 3 over Matusz, with my preference being Alvarez, Hosmer, and a coin toss between Beckham and Matusz.

I believe my draft board (after Posey dropping) was:

1. Alvarez

2. T. Beckham

3. Matusz

4. Smoak

5. Crow

6. Posey

[birdman57]

What happens if the best prospect happens to be a catcher??? Draft him anyways and move Wieters to 1B?? I think you have to look who is available at #5 and not lock yourself in. There are too many variables such as money, years to ML level, agent representation, etc. Personally I like Crow but if Green is there, you have a tough call. But's it's a nice problem:)

[WebLink21]

Actually I was just looking at Grant Green's stats and he doesn't really seem to be having a "bad" year at all. I know he didn't get off to the greatest start, but he is now up to:

.370 Avg.

2 HR

12 RBI

Not to bad. I really hope that he is there at pick 5.

[Stotle]

Actually I was just looking at Grant Green's stats and he doesn't really seem to be having a "bad" year at all. I know he didn't get off to the greatest start, but he is now up to:

.370 Avg.

2 HR

12 RBI

Not to bad. I really hope that he is there at pick 5.

He's starting to drive the ball, which is good. He wasn't squaring-up well earlier in the season.

[WebLink21]

He's starting to drive the ball, which is good. He wasn't squaring-up well earlier in the season.

Do you think that his stock has fallen? Has it fallen to the point that the O's may pass on him if there in your opinion? Thanks as always

[allstar1579]

I believe my draft board (after Posey dropping) was:

1. Alvarez

2. T. Beckham

3. Matusz

4. Smoak

5. Crow

6. Posey

This was mine too with Hosmer in place of Crow.

[Stotle]

Do you think that his stock has fallen? Has it fallen to the point that the O's may pass on him if there in your opinion? Thanks as always

No, I think he is still a likely top 5, and it's way to early in the season to start dropping people too far on boards. It works in reverse, as well. Kipnis was probably my favorite player scouted on my last trip (with Leake and McDonald getting an honorable mention). I'm still not willing to bump them too much higher on my board, yet. Kipnis is awesome, but how much of that power will translate to wood? I just want to see more of him and see if he keeps up the production through the spring. Ditto Poythress.

Leake, I have bumped up my draft board simply because his stuff looked way too good to ignore. Whether or not he holds up as a starter, his FB/CB could be molded into a very impressive relief arsenal.

[allstar1579]

What happens if the best prospect happens to be a catcher??? Draft him anyways and move Wieters to 1B?? I think you have to look who is available at #5 and not lock yourself in. There are too many variables such as money, years to ML level, agent representation, etc. Personally I like Crow but if Green is there, you have a tough call. But's it's a nice problem:)

Then you have to look at what else is there and make the choice. The take the best player rule has the caveat that sometimes the best player is only best player by a hair. Ok, best way to explain it is say Wieters was in the draft again this year and there at 5. He would by far be better than the guys there (as of today) and you take him and work out the problem later. Either you give him 2 years in the minors and use him as a major trade chip when you are looking to compete in 2011, or you check to see if he can play another position. Worst case is one is the starting catcher, one is the backup catcher and could DH or possibly play some 1B. Look at Martinez and Shoppach this year that would be a good gauge. If it were Posey this year, you take him and handle it the same way.

If say catcher A is the best player on the board but pitcher B is just a hair lower than him, it won't hurt to take the pitcher instead. This year will be one of those years where talent pools in sections. You are likely to see an even spread of talent in picks 2-7 and then a drop off and another pool of talent from 8-13 and so on. I don't see a clear hierarchy of talent yet, but then again like I said before, this next month is the most crucial for any draft analysis. We can shoot spitballs in the wind all we want right now, but we can't really get a good picture for another month, all we can do is take notes, remember what we see and see who goes on a tear for the next 30-60 days.

[allstar1579]

Do you think that his stock has fallen? Has it fallen to the point that the O's may pass on him if there in your opinion? Thanks as always

I think the question in 60 days will be have enough people passed him on the board to bump him a few slots? He will go top 10, I will call that now, but the way some players like Stotle mentioned are making waves, you could see one or two of them stretch the top 5 into a top 7 or 8. With SS there are always the nagging questions of whether they will stay at SS. Look at G. Beckham. I was a huge fan of his last year and would have been happy with taking him last year even over Smoak, Matusz and Posey. They are playing him at SS, but they also talked about shifting him to 2B, or 3B, where he may not be as much of a value. If we took Green at SS and then had to move him to 3B later, he may not be worth that top 5 pick there. Ask yourself if you still take him as a 3B at 5 with some of those other guys on the board.