Would you trade Fabian for Kikuchi?

[sportsfan8703]

Draftkings had the O’s has “favorites” to land Kikuchi yesterday. See screenshot. Fabian is currently #30 on Tony’s power rankings. Across most publications he’s going to be somewhere between 10-30. On average around 20. 

+450 aren’t slam dunk odd by any means. 

[RZNJ]

That’s a no brainer for me.  Fabian doesn’t look like a ML regular to me.   I could be wrong but it seems worth the risk.  Kikuchi seems like a good #4 who I might feel comfortable starting a playoff game.  He has a 3.57 FIP and really good BB:K numbers.   He shouldn’t be the primary starter acquired but he’s a solid second.

[Moose Milligan]

Yes. 

[jabba72]

Yes. Fabian's been heating up lately but we're in a win now situation. Kikuchi is a rental, though.

[Warehouse]

Yes, I wouldn’t hesitate. At a minimum, he upgrades the back-end of the rotation with  upside to be #3 playoff starter if playing well.  I’m not sure Fabian’s defense and baserunning are at the level of Bradfield/Honeycutt, so I’m not confident these aspects of his game are good enough to offset the strikeouts and popups.

I would still look to acquire another starter with multiple years of control. And I’m skeptical that Fabian is enough to get this deal done.

[dystopia]

Kikuchi is bad, that’s the problem. 

[Warehouse]

5 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Kikuchi is bad, that’s the problem. 

Eh, his biggest issue is giving up dingers to right-handed batters.  Walltimore will help.

[Aristotelian]

I would but that says more about how little I value Fabian than how much I want Kikuchi.

[clapdiddy]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I would but that says more about how little I value Fabian than how much I want Kikuchi.

Agree with this.   Kikuchi is a very low bar IMO.

[wildcard]

That is around the right level of prospect but Kikuchi is a FA after the season.    I think Elias could use Fabian or similar prospect to get Jameson Taillon.   It will could 42m but the O's will have him for three playoff runs.

[sportsfan8703]

I was just listing the dude Draftkings had us favored to land. Also, we need two SP. If Kikuchi is the 2nd best of the two SP that we acquire, then I’m all for it. He’ll help us win the division and be a game 4 SP option in a 5 or 7 game series. 

[glenn__davis]

13 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I would but that says more about how little I value Fabian than how much I want Kikuchi.

Yeah, I agree with this also.  Never been much aboard the Fabian train.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I was just listing the dude Draftkings had us favored to land. Also, we need two SP. If Kikuchi is the 2nd best of the two SP that we acquire, then I’m all for it. He’ll help us win the division and be a game 4 SP option in a 5 or 7 game series. 

The O's may need two SP but I doubt they get to SP.    Elias will be luck to get a SP and a RP.

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I was just listing the dude Draftkings had us favored to land. Also, we need two SP. If Kikuchi is the 2nd best of the two SP that we acquire, then I’m all for it. He’ll help us win the division and be a game 4 SP option in a 5 or 7 game series. 

Last I checked we were also the favorite to land Crochet and Miller. The odds are still low that we will get any particular one. +450 means the odds are actually like 4 to 1 against us getting him (and "any other team" is actually the "favorite"). 

[MurphDogg]

I don't think it is worth trading for any pitcher that I wouldn't be excited to start a playoff game.

If the Orioles were fighting for a playoff spot, this trade might make sense to boost the 5th starter spot to steal an extra win or two in September, but I would rather hang on to Fabian as a secondary piece for a pitcher who could potentially make a difference in October.