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Offer Anthony Santander 3 year 60 million contract

LockUpTheGunner

By LockUpTheGunner
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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Honkus Wagner: Do you see Santander getting a new deal with the O’s? if not, would a ballpark of 3yr/$60 mil be about right?

 Dan Szymborski: ZiPS actually suggests 3/60 before the season!

 Dan Szymborski: So it would be more now. Hang on

 Dan Szymborski: well, 3/59

 Dan Szymborski: before the season

* * *
Dan Szymborski: Oh, ZiPS suggests 4/105 on Santander

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-8-15-24/

I think he could make a case for a Castellanos contract. He is a switch hitter and better outfielder. Castellanos got 5/$100M

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Tony-OH
Tony-OH

I like Santander. He's a power hitting switch hitter and is in the middle of his first All-Star season.  Saying that, he's 29-years old, he has career .248 avg and .308 OBP, he's slow (23rd perce

DrungoHazewood
DrungoHazewood

100% this. Many terrible contracts come from signing a guy having a career year in his walk year. Santander is a good player, but as he ages he'll almost certainly see his range decline to the point w

SteveA
SteveA

Yeah, he has earned about $27 million in his career so far, through the end of this year. Assuming the contract he signs next will take him to until he is 34+, it ls likely he will not earn much

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I think he could make a case for a Castellanos contract. He is a switch hitter and better outfielder. Castellanos got 5/$100M

The best case against giving Santander a Castellanos contract is the subsequent performance of Castellanos. 

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bluedog Veteran All-Star

bluedog

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You don't have to replace Santander's offense from just one spot in the lineup. The O's gave nearly 400 ABs to Urias and Mateo and most of those should be picked up by Holliday next year. The offense should also benefit from more PAs by Cowser and Westburg at their primary positions. You could get an average season out of whoever replaces Tony and still end up with the same or better total offensive output.

If either Kjerstad or Mayo emerges and plays to their potential, the O's offense could be significantly better next year even without Santander.

I'm in the camp of giving him a QO, taking the pick and then spending that $20M a season on pitching or extensions for the young core.

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theobird All-Star

theobird

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Just now, ChosenOne21 said:

I could offer Santander 3 years/$60M out of my own pocket, because he won't take that deal. Unless he gets hurt or something or absolutely falls off a cliff offensively starting right now, that's not going to happen.

I agree, the time for an offer like that was last off season. Santander is gonna get at least 4/100

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Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

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Am I the only one around here who remembers what people were saying about Tony when he got off to one of his ice cold starts?

I love him as much as anyone else but if we sign him to 20 million+ per year contract and he starts next season with an OPS in the low .700s or high .600s there’s going to be a lot of upset people.  

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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34 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Am I the only one around here who remembers what people were saying about Tony when he got off to one of his ice cold starts?

I love him as much as anyone else but if we sign him to 20 million+ per year contract and he starts next season with an OPS in the low .700s or high .600s there’s going to be a lot of upset people.  

So because people are stupid we should listen to them?

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well, we listen to you. 

No you don't or you'd stfu more often.

Look, I'm certainly not advocating giving AS 100 million dollars, though I have in the past thought 3/60 might make sense depending on other factors.  I was also a small minority saying he'd get a comp pick this off-season, which has turned out to be true.

But the argument against giving him 100 million shouldn't be if he slumps for 2 weeks people will say stupid things on the internet.  That's a stupid argument, almost as stupid as the stupid things people would say after a 2 week slump.

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OriolesMagic83 Hangout Grand Counsel

OriolesMagic83

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If it's $100 million to sign Santander, you could probably lock up Westburg long term or pay for most of Adley's extension vs. pay for what will likely be Santander's decline years.  I love what Santander has done this year, but this is probably his peak year and do you want to pay him the next 5 years based on his peak production. 

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Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

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8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

 

But the argument against giving him 100 million shouldn't be if he slumps for 2 weeks people will say stupid things on the internet.  That's a stupid argument, almost as stupid as the stupid things people would say after a 2 week slump.

Yes, that was my argument. Thanks for summing it up coherently and concisely. 

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