I hate watching pitchers who can’t hold runners

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

I love the new speed of the game but I would not object to allowing another throw over and maybe 2-3 seconds on the clock in the playoffs.  

[Pickles]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Runner on first what would you rather have happen?

The runner steal second.

The batter on first reach via walk.

Of course, that isn't the equation though, because a stolen base requires a runner reaching scoring position, and a walk does not.

I've already said that walks annoy me more than allowing stolen bases, I'm just pointing out the mathematical reality of the matter.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Pickles said:

Of course, that isn't the equation though, because a stolen base requires a runner reaching scoring position, and a walk does not.

I've already said that walks annoy me more than allowing stolen bases, I'm just pointing out the mathematical reality of the matter.

I'm just questioning the math a bit.

Runner on first steals second sure, he's on second.  Runner on first, hitter gets a walk, runner ends up on second and you have a runner on first.  Seems worse.

I don't doubt the number your provided, I think it lacks a bit of context since it's dependent on other things happening (the hitter getting on base initially and the runner succeeding in his stolen base attempt).

What's the expected run value of a stolen base attempt?  Do they have that listed?

[ledzepp8]

I get that we haven’t been playing as well as earlier in the year. But with all the handwringing on this board, it’s worth remembering that we’re tied for the best record in baseball. 
 

None of the top teams have been playing as well as earlier in the season. 

[Jagwar]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Yes, some guys can get away with it but Kimbrel ain't Bautista. 

Especially not when he's throwing 92-93.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm just questioning the math a bit.

Runner on first steals second sure, he's on second.  Runner on first, hitter gets a walk, runner ends up on second and you have a runner on first.  Seems worse.

I don't doubt the number your provided, I think it lacks a bit of context since it's dependent on other things happening (the hitter getting on base initially and the runner succeeding in his stolen base attempt).

What's the expected run value of a stolen base attempt?  Do they have that listed?

Well the only way a walk results in a runner in scoring position is if SOMETHING ELSE happened, which would not be factored into the platonic value of a BB.

Just rough math you have a single and it's worth .30 runs and then a walk which is worth .25, you have expected .55 runs but that's two separate events.

The 1st to 2nd steal is  one event and is worth .30 expected runs, and thus in a platonic sense is worth more than the BB.  But platonic depends explitly on a lack of context.

I didn't see a number for SB attempt- as that is entirely dependent upon the success rate, which is going to vary wildly, depending on any number of factors.

I did .3 for successful stolen base, and negative .6 for a caught stealing, which actually lowers the threshold for success rate to make an attempt worthwhile lower than I've seen it generally cited.

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I did hate it when he actually allowed runners, which thankfully wasn’t often.  

Yeah it didn’t cost him often. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah it didn’t cost him often. 

It factored into two of his blown saves, one of which the team won anyway.   But it made me nervous several other times.  

[Chavez Ravine]

The problem with Kimbrel (and I suspect most other pitchers) is that walks and getting hit hard covary. It’s more that they have no idea what is coming out of their hand that day than that they aren’t giving in because they know that eventually their stuff will produce a K. Not holding the runner is just a side trait that only matters (most of the time) when you are sucking at pitching.

Edited August 12 by Chavez Ravine

[EddeeEddee]

3 hours ago, ledzepp8 said:

I get that we haven’t been playing as well as earlier in the year. But with all the handwringing on this board, it’s worth remembering that we’re tied for the best record in baseball. 
 

None of the top teams have been playing as well as earlier in the season. 

True, but we have the best record in baseball due to many players who have since gotten hurt and never were adequately backfilled -- especially in the bullpen.  Without them the O's have looked quite beatable.  

[Gurgi]

Holding runners wouldnt matter so much if our star players would start hitting for power again.  Henderson and Rutschman are silent for far too long. 

[Rbiggs2525]

15 hours ago, Pickles said:

The new rules have something to do w that.

They have something to do with it but that’s why I say it’s been going on for a long time. The batter has to be in the box looking at the pitcher with 8 second on the timer. That is plenty of time to give multiple look overs and a pause. I would say roughly 80% of pitchers only have the quick throw over now. People forget how important turning a walk or single into a double is.