Szymborski: O’s are 20th in WAR lost to injuries

[drjohnnyfever1]

7 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

One thing to remember about the ZiPS projections. If we look at Jud Fabian, it has his defense as being +11.2, but his offense/baserunning being -12.7 with an wRC+ of 80. That reads a lot like...Cedric Mullins without the SB. So I could see them being bullish on a guy like Fabian.

Fangraphs for some reason just doesn't rate pitchers very highly with their WAR projections. Hell, Tarik Skubal had a 2.4 ZiPS preseason WAR projection. Corbin Burnes had a 4.0 ZiPS projection. Just to give folks an idea of how even the absolute best in the game are rated. 

Thanks for your other explanations of the numbers.  The fact that it's based on projected values and not what the brief performances might indicate and then projected over the year based on those numbers might make our losses feel more significant.  I don't know that there is a way to "weight" the loss of 4 SP's from an opening day rotation?  It seems impossible that any normal statistic could adequately show or capture the impact of a loss such as that.  Altho, here we see their attempt to just that. lol 

I'm still shocked that we were able to absorb those injuries and perform up to the level of the best team in the league.  Had they all been healthy, we might have lapped everyone.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

One thing to remember about the ZiPS projections. If we look at Jud Fabian, it has his defense as being +11.2, but his offense/baserunning being -12.7 with an wRC+ of 80. That reads a lot like...Cedric Mullins without the SB. So I could see them being bullish on a guy like Fabian.

Fangraphs for some reason just doesn't rate pitchers very highly with their WAR projections. Hell, Tarik Skubal had a 2.4 ZiPS preseason WAR projection. Corbin Burnes had a 4.0 ZiPS projection. Just to give folks an idea of how even the absolute best in the game are rated. 

I'll be honest, the only things these numbers reaffirm for me is how little I believe in ZiPS for anything. 

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'll be honest, the only things these numbers reaffirm for me is how little I believe in ZiPS for anything. 

Or any other projection system, TBH.   

I think it’s important to understand that ZiPS actually generates a large series of different projections for each player, and what gets published is the “median” projection.   Some of the projections involve scenarios where a player gets injured during the year.   Therefore, when you see a median projection, it’s not “this is the average expected outcome assuming the player is completely healthy.”   It’s “this is the average expected outcome including all the scenarios where the player gets hurt at some point during the year.”  Their median projection had Bradish with a 3.71 ERA in 155 innings. 
 

[LookitsPuck]

43 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'll be honest, the only things these numbers reaffirm for me is how little I believe in ZiPS for anything. 

I generally don't mind ZiPS for major leaguers who have a history, but for minor leaguers I just don't think it's useful at all. 

The reason why I like ZiPS for major leaguers with a history is, to Frobby's point, it's a median and factors in a number of things. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I generally don't mind ZiPS for major leaguers who have a history, but for minor leaguers I just don't think it's useful at all. 

The reason why I like ZiPS for major leaguers with a history is, to Frobby's point, it's a median and factors in a number of things. 

I think these projection systems are well-constructed, but there’s always going to be a huge range of possibilities for player performance that makes it impossible for the projections to resemble reality.  

As a reminder, ZiPS did project the Orioles to win the AL East.  It’s not some O’s-hating system.  
 

[LookitsPuck]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think these projection systems are well-constructed, but there’s always going to be a huge range of possibilities for player performance that makes it impossible for the projections to resemble reality.  

As a reminder, ZiPS did project the Orioles to win the AL East.  It’s not some O’s-hating system.  
 

Yeah, I generally like the rollups, even individual player projections, but I don't put much value in their minor leaguer -> major projections, but they are fun. I would love to see an analysis on their prospect projections relative to actual performance. I'm sure somebody has done that at some point over the years.