Elias and Hyde address the media today

[LookitsPuck]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Chance.

The Padres went from one of the worst teams with RISP to one of the best, despite losing maybe the best hitter in the game.

Bryce Harper had an OPS+ of 234 in "late and close" in 2023.  In 2024 it was 84.

The Padres were 12th overall this year. They were 21st last year. 

Think this is more of a function of Profar being gangbusters for them, Merrill being AS/ROY caliber, acquiring Arraez midseason, Higashioka having a career year, and Tatis looking somewhat decent eventually. They were more balanced this year than last year, regardless of Soto being there.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

The Padres were 12th overall this year. They were 21st last year. 

Think this is more of a function of Profar being gangbusters for them, Merrill being AS/ROY caliber, acquiring Arraez midseason, Higashioka having a career year, and Tatis looking somewhat decent eventually. They were more balanced this year than last year, regardless of Soto being there.

Sorry I was going off of old data.  Still a pretty big jump.

It's mostly noise.

[LookitsPuck]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Chance.

The Padres went from one of the worst teams with RISP to one of the best, despite losing maybe the best hitter in the game.

Bryce Harper had an OPS+ of 234 in "late and close" in 2023.  In 2024 it was 84.

I want to also address the Harper point. I'm talking about RISP, not "late and close". We can talk about high leverage/late and close in a diff convo, but strictly RISP:

Bryce Harper

2023: 272/.803

2024: 331/ 1.122

2023 was a goofy year for Harper coming off of Tommy John. He looked good in April, but was a disaster in May/June before finishing the season on fire that year. I don't think he's a good case study for your example. Besides, I'm not talking singular player performance. I'm talking as a team which is far less susceptible to SSS and "chance". FWIW, I do think luck somewhat plays into this. 

But let's look at this as a team. 1,298 AB with RISP for the O's this year. A 251 BA. Last year they hit 287. That's a 36 point difference. Yeah, only 3.6%. But let's look at what 3.6% means with that many AB. That means: 47 extra hits. I don't believe that 47 hits explains "luck" or "chance". Maybe for certain hitters in certain situations. There is an element of BABIP here. In 2024, it was 317. This year? 289. So, if we truly believe 300 is league average, they were a little unlucky this year, and somewhat lucky last year.

But we are still talking about a dramatic dropoff. Now, is that because of playing more rookies this year? Because of the injuries? Very possibly. And in a 2 game series that can rear its ugly head. But there was nothing unlucky about yesterday or the day before. They just came up completely empty. Maybe the only unlucky situations were Ramon and Westy rips being caught.

[Can_of_corn]

I respect the work but I still think it is mostly luck and chance.  There is always an amount of variance in performance year to year.

[LookitsPuck]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I respect the work but I still think it is mostly luck and chance.  There is always an amount of variance in performance year to year.

Probably more of a function of roster construction, tbh.

They had very little injuries last year offensively aside from Mullins a few stretches, Mountcastle to vertigo, and if I recall Austin Hays.

This year they obv had many injuries in Westy, Mountcastle, Mateo, and Urias and then had to give ABs to some lackluster hitters for months on end. Maybe that explains things. 

I still 100% believe Adley's dropoff was because of his hand being hit against the Rangers. He played through it, though. X-Rays were negative, but looking back...I wonder if giving him appropriate time off for a couple weeks would have been prudent. 

[milbest77]

This doesn’t surprise me in the least. Classic “CYA” by these clowns. They’ll announce Adley was injured and crow on and on about how we’re getting guys back next year and they’ll look to “enhance” the roster. YAWN.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

2 minutes ago, milbest77 said:

This doesn’t surprise me in the least. Classic “CYA” by these clowns. They’ll announce Adley was injured and crow on and on about how we’re getting guys back next year and they’ll look to “enhance” the roster. YAWN.

I mean what else can you ask for? I expect some accountability and I think we’ll get it. And I think it will be interesting to hear the words stated of what the strategy may be to address problems. It could be puffy and PR BS, yes, but I think there will be some nuggets. 

The biggest thing to happen this year for this franchise may very well be that we’re finally rid of the Angeloses.

First Ruby offseason. Big test for Elias. I’m curious to see it play out, even if this was yet another super bummer playoffs. 

[Conway12]

36 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I want to also address the Harper point. I'm talking about RISP, not "late and close". We can talk about high leverage/late and close in a diff convo, but strictly RISP:

Bryce Harper

2023: 272/.803

2024: 331/ 1.122

2023 was a goofy year for Harper coming off of Tommy John. He looked good in April, but was a disaster in May/June before finishing the season on fire that year. I don't think he's a good case study for your example. Besides, I'm not talking singular player performance. I'm talking as a team which is far less susceptible to SSS and "chance". FWIW, I do think luck somewhat plays into this. 

But let's look at this as a team. 1,298 AB with RISP for the O's this year. A 251 BA. Last year they hit 287. That's a 36 point difference. Yeah, only 3.6%. But let's look at what 3.6% means with that many AB. That means: 47 extra hits. I don't believe that 47 hits explains "luck" or "chance". Maybe for certain hitters in certain situations. There is an element of BABIP here. In 2024, it was 317. This year? 289. So, if we truly believe 300 is league average, they were a little unlucky this year, and somewhat lucky last year.

But we are still talking about a dramatic dropoff. Now, is that because of playing more rookies this year? Because of the injuries? Very possibly. And in a 2 game series that can rear its ugly head. But there was nothing unlucky about yesterday or the day before. They just came up completely empty. Maybe the only unlucky situations were Ramon and Westy rips being caught.

In 2023 with runners in scoring position, on top of a .317 BABIP, they had a 10% BB rate (20th highest in the league) and a 18.7% K rate (2nd lowest in the league). Then, in 2024 with RISP, they had a 8.4% BB rate (28th in the league) and a 22.1% K rate (15th in the league). 

So last year they put the ball in play more often and had better results when doing so. A good formula. BABIP has variance, but the BB% rate and K% rate feel like changes in approach that were going on all year long. 

[24fps]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

Did Ken Rosenthal come back to The Sun? None of these guys ask tough questions. 

I hear good questions all the time. The huge problem I see is the complete absence of pointed follow-up questions. It’s just going through the motions if that’s the case. 

[MacAdoo]

“You know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It’s 25 hits. Twenty-five hits in 500 at-bats is 50 points, OK? There’s six months in a season. That’s about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week, just one, a gork, a ground ball — a ground ball with eyes! — you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week and you’re in Yankee Stadium.”

-Crash Davis

 

[Low Country Bird]

1 hour ago, Wavetrapper said:

To hell with both of them 

Yeah, to hell with a guy who took over a dumpster fire of an organization, built up the farm system to the top system in all of MLB and resulted in a MLB team that has won 192 games over two years with most core players 26 and under (all while likely seriously hamstrung at the MLB level by the previous ownership).  The perspective, or lack thereof, on this Board is amazing.  Playoffs are a crapshoot.  But if you keep getting there, eventually the dam is going to break.  Let's see what happens this offseason with the new ownership.  If we flame out next year, then by all means it's time to start questioning the direction. But I don't expect that to happen and I think we will be right back in the playoffs. 

[dystopia]

52 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I respect the work but I still think it is mostly luck and chance.  There is always an amount of variance in performance year to year.

Definitely some luck and chance but they were also swinging at a bunch of junk and missing the pitches that were actually hittable. 

[wickedsolo]

Hopefully someone asks why they would trade away two good, young prospects (Stowers and Norby) for a shitty pitcher that lasted until lunchtime before getting kicked down to Triple-A. 

Should have made more of an effort to trade Holliday and keep Norby. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I respect the work but I still think it is mostly luck and chance.  There is always an amount of variance in performance year to year.

Luck and chance that the entire lineup decided the all star break was the end of the season and we really didn't need to hit anymore. That's not just luck and chance. Something happened. It might have been a clubhouse thing that Hyde couldn't get under control. It might have been other teams adjusting to our hitting approach and we never readjusted. Maybe we have players with no stamina (Adley, Gunnar, etc...) and need a better conditioning program. There is something deeper going on. Even that last game, Hyde managed scared, pulling Efflin after 4 innings with only one run allowed. The players could see that too and it affected them. 

[Ripken]

Any way to listen to this?