Snell vs Burnes

[dystopia]

Burnes is more reliable to throw strikes, make starts, and have consistent seasons. 

[TommyPickles]

Interesting that they have the exact same career ERA: 3.19.

I'd be thrilled with either deal. I chose Snell, because four years seems lower risk.

[Since1984]

In order to win, sign both! The next 4-6 years are a window worth the payroll stretch. You could always trade

[Jim'sKid26]

Snell. Reasoning:

1) Shorter contract

2) Elite LH starter in OPACY appeals to the Waltimore issue.

3) Snell's stuff is special and he has had success in AL East in the past.

4) Nice complement to the other RH starters, Eflin, Rodriguez and Bradish.

[LookitsPuck]

Either would be great. I do generally like shorter term contracts because of reducing the risk.

But I think I like Burnes more. Snell is 2 years older, which is why I presume you went with 4 years for him, but he does have durability concerns. If we break down each pitcher in terms of times pitching more than, say, 100 IP, 130 IP, 150 IP, and 180 IP:

Burnes also hasn't been a full time starter in the majors since 2021. So, presumably, there's less wear/tear. 

Think my main takeaway here is that Burnes has been a full time starter in the majors for the last 4 years and he's went 160+ in all 4 and went 190+ in 3 of them. Snell has been entirely used as a starter and has only eclipsed the 160 IP mark 3 out of 9 of his seasons and only once in the last 4 years did he go more than 130 IP.  

I'd gladly take either, though.

[Allan Bryant]

12 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 

My choice would be Burnes

My thought is why not him And Snell AND Roki ?   We can afford it 

[Bemorewins]

53 minutes ago, Since1984 said:

In order to win, sign both! The next 4-6 years are a window worth the payroll stretch. You could always trade

This.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

35 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

My choice would be Burnes

My thought is why not him And Snell AND Roki ?   We can afford it 

If the Orioles were going to make a splash for two big name starting pitchers, then I agree with targeting Burnes or Snell and Roki. Better to get one younger starting pitcher instead of two pitchers in their 30's.

Edited 2 hours ago by OsFanSinceThe80s

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

2 hours ago, dystopia said:

Burnes is more reliable to throw strikes, make starts, and have consistent seasons. 

This.

[Allan Bryant]

5 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

If the Orioles were going to make a splash for two big name starting pitchers, then I agree with targeting Burnes or Snell and Roki. Better to get one younger starting pitcher instead of two pitchers in their 30's.

Who is younger starting pitcher you refer to ?  Roki ?   Assuming we go get him, we still need need one more starter in their 30s , namely Burnes or Snell . 
I don’t believe Tyler Wells is a starter . Brandish is a big question mark . Grayrod is also question mark . Elfin and Kremer are safer bets . Povich should be optioned to Norfolk for more experience and for depth . Suarez should be moved to bullpen and swing starter . But in any case , make sure you get two of Burnes , Snell and Roki.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

49 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

My choice would be Burnes

My thought is why not him And Snell AND Roki ?   We can afford it 

Sasaki is going to get a Yamamoto type contract if he is posted in the next 2 or 3 years.

I simply cannot see the Orioles ever giving a pitcher a contract like that, which is probably for the best TBH.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

The durability and the ability to pitch deep into games matter quite a bit to me, so I went with Burnes.

Also, Snell's BB issues are eventually going to catch up to him IMO.

[Allan Bryant]

5 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Sasaki is going to get a Yamamoto type contract if he is posted in the next 2 or 3 years.

I simply cannot see the Orioles ever giving a pitcher a contract like that, which is probably for the best TBH.

Oh Sasaki is one of those postings process FA ?  I didn’t know that. Thanks for sharing that info . 
 

How about the other Japanese pitcher ? Suyano ( not sure if spelled correctly) ?  He’s about 35 , his velocity is past his prime but has arsenal of six different pitches ?   His stats look good too .  I read he does not require any postings process either . We should just check in on him 

[StottyByNature]

I voted Burnes sheerly on durability.  The guy seems like the rare pitcher whose size and arm path make him awfully dependable.  The decrease in K rate is concerning, but when you watch him the stuff still seems pretty overpowering.  He may actually age well because he relies as much on weak contact against the cutter as he does K's.  

In either case I'm guessing the last two years of each contract would be a bit of a sunk cost, which is why I doubt we sign either.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

37 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

Oh Sasaki is one of those postings process FA ?  I didn’t know that. Thanks for sharing that info . 
 

How about the other Japanese pitcher ? Suyano ( not sure if spelled correctly) ?  He’s about 35 , his velocity is past his prime but has arsenal of six different pitches ?   His stats look good too .  I read he does not require any postings process either . We should just check in on him 

Sasaki is still pretty far away from full free agency so he would have to be posted by his current team, and given his age and ability, he's definitely going to get upwards of $300 million from some big market team like Yamamoto did.

Sugano's advanced age and middling velocity make him uninteresting to me as anything except a second SP acquisition for the back of the rotation after a Burnes/Snell TOR type SP.