New Wieters article

[orioles119]

The Orioles won't be the only one with egg on the face at the expense of Scott Boras.

[Rockbird]

The Orioles won't be the only one with egg on the face at the expense of Scott Boras.

Is that supposed to make us feel better? What the hell does it matter if KC or Pitt don't sign their draft picks?! We should be focused on improving OUR team.

[Boof]

I am going to be very frustrated if the Weiters signing doesn't happen but I am going to wait until the deadline passes first.

I don't think these guys should be getting this kind of money either but thats the way it is right now.

[JTrea81]

MIke Piazza was drafted in like the 30th round of this draft. With the new system, I won't feel bad if Wieters didn't sign and we draft a Highschool kid to a Minor League contract so we don't lose him like Cleveland lost Guts.

You'd pass up a guy who could be the next Varitek/Mauer with power for a guy who could turn into the next Rich Stahl? High school players are a complete crapshoot vs. college players...

[TyCobb]

You'd pass up a guy who could be the next Varitek/Mauer with power for a guy who could turn into the next Rich Stahl? High school players are a complete crapshoot vs. college players...

College Players are just as a crapshoot. Actually I would think college players are even more of a crapshoot.

[BaltimoreTerp]

College Players are just as a crapshoot. Actually I would think college players are even more of a crapshoot.

http://www.amazon.com/Moneyball-Art-Winning-Unfair-Game/dp/0393324818/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/102-0191852-2992148?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1187151177&sr=8-1

[Rockbird]

College Players are just as a crapshoot. Actually I would think college players are even more of a crapshoot.

They're all crapshoots! You don't know how any player will ultimately turn out. But I'll trust every single source, scout, reporter, columnist, etc. who said he was the best in the draft, would be an instant top nationally ranked prospect and probably in the majors within a season or two. That tends to tip the balance a bit.

It's like investing in the stock market. You don't know how any stock might do. Some expected to do well crash and the investors are left shocked. Others come out of nowhere and become extremely profitable. But if all the analysts, economists, experts, insiders, etc. are saying a certain stock is a sure thing to be profitable and give return pretty quickly, don't you think you'd feel safer investing in that one then a couple others that are complete unknowns!? Sure it MAY be a house of cards and burst once all the investors figure it out, but chances are with all the reputable endorsements, its a safe bet.

That's the best I can do with you. If you still don't see why signing Wieters is smarter then taking the crap shoot of a comp pick, I can't lead you to the water anymore then I have.

[CEB]

If the reports are correct, the Orioles will need to go higher to assure that Wieters will sign.

Here's why:

If the Orioles are indeed offering $6 million over 4 years (whether in bonus or salary or any combination), that equates to $1.5 million per year.

If Boras and Wieters really believe that $10.5 million over four years (i.e. the Rick Porcello contract duration) is reasonable and obtainable, and other signings come in at this inflated level, Boras may be of the view that waiting a year will yield Wieters $10.5 million or perhaps even more. Thus, the crude economic equation is $1.5 million in lost salary for Wieters versus a $4.5 million possible gain by waiting a year.

Now, of course that doesn't include the risk of injury or the loss of prestige in failing to sign an MLB contact or getting that new house for mom and dad -- but it also doesn't include the possibility that Wieters might get even more than $10.5 million with an even better season at GA Tech. So it would not be irrational from Wieters' perspective to turn down $6 million and return to school with the expectation of receiving $10.5 million or more next year, perhaps from the Yankees or RedSox.

This is exactly what Boras will be telling MacPhail and what MacPhail and Angelos have to be worried about.... not that you will see that quote in the paper.

It's awfully gutsy hardball bargaining. And maybe Wieters doesn't have the stomach for it eve if Boras does. But that's the rough calculus. If the Orioles raise the $6.0 million to $8.0 million over four years, that of course, is the equivalent of $2 million per year and gives Mr. Wieters no real economic reason not to sign.

So that's what I would do if I were MacPhail, and I might not wait any further. If you are already at $6 million, you have already busted the MLB slot recommendation. There is no reason to wait and see the price go up.

Of course, if David Price (TB) or Josh Vitters (CHW) sign for figures north of Porcello's $7.1 million, every thing is subject to change. It may give MacPhail more cover to bust the slotting or it may stiffen the resolve of Boras and Wieters. This will be interesting.

But, I guarantee you Matt Wieters isn't sleeping very well tonight either. He's got some very tough decisions to make tomorrow.

But if I misunderstood the duration of the agreements offered or proposed, every changes too... ;-)

CEB

[Natural7]

Piazza went in the 50+ round...I've seen Wieters play several times and $6 mil is a stretch for his talent. He has a very comparable body type/size/projection as a guy who everyone said was a positive-absolute-incredible can't miss from Mississippi named Stephen Head. Head is now buried in Kinston (Indians-A+) for the second straight year and continues to stuggle with professional baseball. If the $6 mil doesn't get it, let Weiters play college ball and draft his ass again next year when you can sign him for your price and no promise of a mlb contract. At some point, mlb teams are going to have to stop being pushed around by Boras.

[Lucky Jim]

If the reports are correct, the Orioles will need to go higher to assure that Wieters will sign.

Here's why:

If the Orioles are indeed offering $6 million over 4 years (whether in bonus or salary or any combination), that equates to $1.5 million per year.

If Boras and Wieters really believe that $10.5 million over four years (i.e. the Rick Porcello contract duration) is reasonable and obtainable, and other signings come in at this inflated level, Boras may be of the view that waiting a year will yield Wieters $10.5 million or perhaps even more. Thus, the crude economic equation is $1.5 million in lost salary for Wieters versus a $4.5 million possible gain by waiting a year.

Now, of course that doesn't include the risk of injury or the loss of prestige in failing to sign an MLB contact or getting that new house for mom and dad -- but it also doesn't include the possibility that Wieters might get even more than $10.5 million with an even better season at GA Tech. So it would not be irrational from Wieters' perspective to turn down $6 million and return to school with the expectation of receiving $10.5 million or more next year, perhaps from the Yankees or RedSox.

This is exactly what Boras will be telling MacPhail and what MacPhail and Angelos have to be worried about.... not that you will see that quote in the paper.

It's awfully gutsy hardball bargaining. And maybe Wieters doesn't have the stomach for it eve if Boras does. But that's the rough calculus. If the Orioles raise the $6.0 million to $8.0 million over four years, that of course, is the equivalent of $2 million per year and gives Mr. Wieters no real economic reason not to sign.

So that's what I would do if I were MacPhail, and I might not wait any further. If you are already at $6 million, you have already busted the MLB slot recommendation. There is no reason to wait and see the price go up.

Of course, if David Price (TB) or Josh Vitters (CHW) sign for figures north of Porcello's $7.1 million, every thing is subject to change. It may give MacPhail more cover to bust the slotting or it may stiffen the resolve of Boras and Wieters. This will be interesting.

But, I guarantee you Matt Wieters isn't sleeping very well tonight either. He's got some very tough decisions to make tomorrow.

But if I misunderstood the duration of the agreements offered or proposed, every changes too... ;-)

CEB

Why would any team pay more for Wieters next year knowing there's no way in #$%* that he doesn't sign --> if he fails to sign next year he's out two years of development.

His leverage decreases each year. Unlike, in the end, the teams that draft him, who can replace the draft pick wasted on him w/ something essentially similar (if a year down the line.)

This isn't being taken into account on here, and it should be.

[orioles119]

Is that supposed to make us feel better? What the hell does it matter if KC or Pitt don't sign their draft picks?! We should be focused on improving OUR team.

Wow... just stating an observation - touchy aren't we?

[Rockbird]

Piazza went in the 50+ round...

The point of the Piazza analogy was the criticism that Wieters seems to big to stay a catcher and doesn't have the power of a 1st baseman. Sounds like a Piazza description, nothing to do with his draft position.

Head is now buried in Kinston (Indians-A+) for the second straight year and continues to stuggle with professional baseballI've seen Wieters play several times and $6 mil is a stretch for his talent. He has a very comparable body type/size/projection as a guy who everyone said was a positive-absolute-incredible can't miss from Mississip.

And what makes your one example more valid then someone else's example projecting to Jason Varitek, hmmm?

If the $6 mil doesn't get it, let Weiters play college ball and draft his ass again next year when you can sign him for your price and no promise of a mlb contract.

1) First of all, we probably won't get to draft him again because if he plays well he's going 1 or 2 almost guaranteed.

2) His demands would probably go UP in your scenario even if we did somehow get to draft him again

3) AND I believe if you re-draft the same player you need THEIR permission to do so. I bet Weiters tells us to go take a hike.

At some point, mlb teams are going to have to stop being pushed around by Boras.

How valiant. Let some other team take that stand. I believe in staying competitive with your competition and as an Orioles fan am more concerned with them improving then lamenting the progress of the market. ITS NOT GOING BACK DOWN. ITS ONLY GOING TO GO UP. LIVE WITH IT OR GET OUT OF THE GAME!!!

[Rockbird]

Wow... just stating an observation - touchy aren't we?

Sorry, I couldn't tell you apart from the apologists.

[TyCobb]

They're all crapshoots! You don't know how any player will ultimately turn out. But I'll trust every single source, scout, reporter, columnist, etc. who said he was the best in the draft, would be an instant top nationally ranked prospect and probably in the majors within a season or two. That tends to tip the balance a bit.

It's like investing in the stock market. You don't know how any stock might do. Some expected to do well crash and the investors are left shocked. Others come out of nowhere and become extremely profitable. But if all the analysts, economists, experts, insiders, etc. are saying a certain stock is a sure thing to be profitable and give return pretty quickly, don't you think you'd feel safer investing in that one then a couple others that are complete unknowns!? Sure it MAY be a house of cards and burst once all the investors figure it out, but chances are with all the reputable endorsements, its a safe bet.

That's the best I can do with you. If you still don't see why signing Wieters is smarter then taking the crap shoot of a comp pick, I can't lead you to the water anymore then I have.

You actually have a good idea what the stock will do over the long term. Nobody know what Wieters will be like in 3 years.

[Lucky Jim]

You actually have a good idea what the stock will do over the long term. Nobody know what Wieters will be like in 3 years.

That's because investing in a single player is like investing in a single stock - you don't know, necessarily, what's going to happen. A draft should function like a diversified portfolio. Spread risk. Mitigate risk. And know where to take your shot at the big gain.