Where is Our Clutch Hitting Late in Games?

[ledzepp8]

I think you are reading too much into this. Pretty much the whole team has stunk in the late innings of close games. I can be as critical of Old#5Fan as anyone, but I just don't see this thread as motivated by some anti-Markakis agenda. There are a bunch of guys not getting it done in the late innings, and that includes Markakis (who, as most posters must realize, is my favorite player on the team). They need to reverse that trend. Period.

It may not be quite as bad as some of his other threads but I believe the intent is still there. He basically said Markakis doesn't deserve to be an All Star this season because he hasn't hit a game winning homerun like Michael Young or Johnny Damon. That's ridiculous.

[Frobby]

It may not be quite as bad as some of his other threads but I believe the intent is still there. He basically said Markakis doesn't deserve to be an All Star this season because he hasn't hit a game winning homerun like Michael Young or Johnny Damon. That's ridiculous.

Just my opinion, but May 11 isn't the time to be deciding who deserves to be an all star in any event. Hypothetically, though, if Markakis was hitting .158/.158/.158 in late and close situations as of the end of June, I'd certainly consider that in weighing whether he deserved to be an all star.

Right now there are a lot of good OF candidates, including Bay, Jones, Swisher, Damon, Lind and Hunter in addition to Markakis. There's a lot of baseball to be played before we worry about whether Markakis deserves an all star nod.

[Old#5fan]

I think you are reading too much into this. Pretty much the whole team has stunk in the late innings of close games. I can be as critical of Old#5Fan as anyone, but I just don't see this thread as motivated by some anti-Markakis agenda. There are a bunch of guys not getting it done in the late innings, and that includes Markakis (who, as most posters must realize, is my favorite player on the team). They need to reverse that trend. Period.

Once again the voice of reason. Of course he is reading to much into this. The entire team with the exception of Jones has indeed stunk in close and late hitting situations this year so far and it has been killing them as much as the bullpen has.

[Fan4Life]

I also was watching 60 minutes yesterday where they had a segment about Bill James and they were talking about clutch hitting and indicated that James postulates there is no such thing. Yet, when this was put forth to Francona (Red Sox Manager) he laughed about it and said, he disagrees as all you need to do is look at David Ortiz and how he comes through in big situations.

For me, if you believe there are clutch hits, you have to allow for there being clutch hitters. Obviously how you define clutch hits is where the rubber meets the road. Again for me, a player that tends to obtain a lot of clutch hits is a clutch hitter. Now his stats may not reflect his numbers being considerably different in those situations than the rest of his atbats. But when the game is on the line, the pressure, thought processes, concentration levels are all very different. A 3 run HR in the first inning isn't the same as late in the game with the score close. Likely a closer or setup man in the game, more pressure, etc etc. Big Poppy is a clutch hitter to me, or has been up to this season as I can recall seeing his game changing / winning hits on sports center over and over.

[Old#5fan]

It may not be quite as bad as some of his other threads but I believe the intent is still there. He basically said Markakis doesn't deserve to be an All Star this season because he hasn't hit a game winning homerun like Michael Young or Johnny Damon. That's ridiculous.

I did no such thing. I actually said he doesn't deserve it when he's hitting 158 in clutch or close and late hitting situations. That is simply terrible any way you slice it, Markakis fan or not. How anyone can choose to overlook this is beyond blind homerism in my estimation.

[Frobby]

For me, if you believe there are clutch hits, you have to allow for there being clutch hitters. Obviously how you define clutch hits is where the rubber meets the road. Again for me, a player that tends to obtain a lot of clutch hits is a clutch hitter. Now his stats may not reflect his numbers being considerably different in those situations than the rest of his atbats. But when the game is on the line, the pressure, thought processes, concentration levels are all very different. A 3 run HR in the first inning isn't the same as late in the game with the score close. Likely a closer or setup man in the game, more pressure, etc etc. Big Poppy is a clutch hitter to me, or has been up to this season as I can recall seeing his game changing / winning hits on sports center over and over.

Ortiz career: .285/.381/.549

Ortiz RISP: .305/.410/.533

Ortiz RISP, 2 outs: .290/.418/.557

Ortiz Late & Close: .278/.381/.558

Ortiz Hi Leverage: .312/.403/.584

Mainly, the guy has just been a great hitter, period. But he's certainly been great in the clutch.

[Flosman]

I did no such thing. I actually said he doesn't deserve it when he's hitting 158 in clutch or close and late hitting situations. That is simply terrible any way you slice it, Markakis fan or not. How anyone can choose to overlook this is beyond blind homerism in my estimation.

Can you tell me how many ABs make up the 158 average? Serious question I can't find it here at work.

[Old#5fan]

Can you tell me how many ABs make up the 158 average? Serious question I can't find it here at work.

It doesn't make any difference to me in my argument which is based on so far this year. If it does to you, I suggest you can look them up under "Close and Late hitting stats for this season so far."

[TheHustler]

The single most useful comment in this thread is when someone said that in late innings the other teams can match up lefty vs. lefty. This seems to explain Adam Jones' numbers and the low Markakis and Huff numbers.

If someone wants to break down the stats Frobby posted into vs. LHP and vs. RHP including the number of ABs, it could test this theory.

[Old#5fan]

The single most useful comment in this thread is when someone said that in late innings the other teams can match up lefty vs. lefty. This seems to explain Adam Jones' numbers and the low Markakis and Huff numbers.

If someone wants to break down the stats Frobby posted into vs. LHP and vs. RHP including the number of ABs, it could test this theory.

Even so, your number three and four hitters should not have as much a drop off against any specialists. It just defies logic. Especially when they hit LHed pitching overall pretty well.

[Mackus]

For me, if you believe there are clutch hits, you have to allow for there being clutch hitters.

This is a incorrect assumption.

Clutch hits exist. A 2-out RBI single with the game on the line is inherently a clutch hit.

Hitters that are consistently and always better in clutch situations over a long time do not exist (or at least are so very rare that they might as well not exist). Similarly rare are hitters that

David Ortiz is one of those rare guys that does better in clutch situations. His career OPS is .930. But his career w/ RISP is .943, 2 outs w/ RISP is .974, Late & Close is .940, and his numbers actually go down from a 1.010 OPS in tie games, .960 in 1-run games, .959 for +/- 2-runs, .957 within 3 runs, .938 within 4 runs and .880 with +5 runs difference.

Ortiz has had 5570 career PAs with a .930 OPS. He's had 1690 PAs with RISP , 699 PAs w/ 2-outs and RISP, 790 PAs in Late & Close situations. He's slightly better in those situations than other situations. And thats one of the really rare cases.

Clutch hitters simply are incredibly rare, and usually over time and enough of a sample, a hitter's numbers will be in line with what you'd expect.

[Old#5fan]

This is a incorrect assumption.

Clutch hits exist. A 2-out RBI single with the game on the line is inherently a clutch hit.

Hitters that are consistently and always better in clutch situations over a long time do not exist (or at least are so very rare that they might as well not exist). Similarly rare are hitters that

David Ortiz is one of those rare guys that does better in clutch situations. His career OPS is .930. But his career w/ RISP is .943, 2 outs w/ RISP is .974, Late & Close is .940, and his numbers actually go down from a 1.010 OPS in tie games, .960 in 1-run games, .959 for +/- 2-runs, .957 within 3 runs, .938 within 4 runs and .880 with +5 runs difference.

Ortiz has had 5570 career PAs with a .930 OPS. He's had 1690 PAs with RISP , 699 PAs w/ 2-outs and RISP, 790 PAs in Late & Close situations. He's slightly better in those situations than other situations. And thats one of the really rare cases.

Clutch hitters simply are incredibly rare, and usually over time and enough of a sample, a hitter's numbers will be in line with what you'd expect.

I know that Frank Robinson was probably the greatest clutch hitter I ever saw and I think I recall seeing his Close and Late stats which support it. However, Brooks was also very clutch and I think I saw where his Close and Late stats didn't really suppport it which I found very surprising.

[Frobby]

Can you tell me how many ABs make up the 158 average? Serious question I can't find it here at work.

It is a very small sample - 3 singles in 19 AB. (By the way, it is now 3 for 20.) Definitely nothing to be concerned about as a long-term trend,in comparison with Nick's .326/.404/.514 over 276 AB in his career (which includes the current 3 for 20).

Like I said, the current stats are relevant to what has happened so far this season, not as a predicter of what to expect going forward.

[Old#5fan]

It is a very small sample - 3 singles in 19 AB. (By the way, it is now 3 for 20.) Definitely nothing to be concerned about as a long-term trend,in comparison with Nick's .326/.404/.514 over 276 AB in his career (which includes the current 3 for 20).

Like I said, the current stats are relevant to what has happened so far this season, not as a predicter of what to expect going forward.

As a predictor (if you believe that sort of thing) than Markakis should be due to go on a tear hitting in C and L situations right?

[ejf1025]

I know that Frank Robinson was probably the greatest clutch hitter I ever saw and I think I recall seeing his Close and Late stats which support it. However, Brooks was also very clutch and I think I saw where his Close and Late stats didn't really suppport it which I found very surprising.

So then Brooks was not, in fact, "clutch."

You just remember him as such. Which I would suggest is a result of him being great in general and playing for great teams....so his triumphs and feats get magnified. It's the Jeter-effect.