Challenge To All Statistical Gurus!

[Eli Eon]

I'm not really sure where you are going. Now we have to take scouting out of the equation? Would that mean that someone taking your challenge couldn't refer to scouting reports as well?

Just for curiosity I went back a couple years and gathered the top prospects for 2005. As you can see, a very high percentage of those players are making significant contributions at the ML level right now.

Now of course you can say the players abilities were well scouted, but it would also be a fair to say that each of these players probably totalled some fairly impressive minor league statistics while verifying that ability.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/04top10s/index.html

Yeah, yeah, yeah, so what? Predict the next sucessful Oriole based on these stats. How come nobody can do it? If these stats are such good measurement tools it shouldn't be that difficult now should it?

[The Wedge]

Nobody can do it because we can't go "there, see, this person IS proven." We'd have to wait, at the very least, at about 5 years to look back and say yay or nay. Which is the other reason the challenge is retarded.

[Lt Melmo]

Okay, I'm done. This is too much, and I'm barely a part of the discussion. It pains me because I know that Eli is going to think that this means he's winning and everything's coming up Milhouse, but I also know that Eli's definition of "winning" is "pissing off as many people as possible."

Good luck soldiers.

[Baltimoron]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, so what? Predict the next sucessful Oriole based on these stats. How come nobody can do it? If these stats are such good measurement tools it shouldn't be that difficult now should it?

<img src="http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:fXkERc_AwJF1bM:http://100veces.files.wordpress.com/2006/10/strawman.jpg">

[The Wedge]

<img src="http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:fXkERc_AwJF1bM:http://100veces.files.wordpress.com/2006/10/strawman.jpg">

Dude! I had the same idea, but didn't do it.

But yeah, the straw man crap was absurd weeks ago, and it's still absurd.

[Mackus]

Sure there is a winner. I have yet to get a challenger so I must have won. However, I don't care about winning, I just what someone, anyone on this esteemed Hangout Site to show me where stats of Orioles minor league players currently in the system will predict which player will have a sucessful major league career. Nobody, can do it. Ergo, my point has been made that stats in this situation (an interpretation or indicators of future success) are worthless tools.

They do have value as measures compared to other minor leaguers and individual progress, but when it comes to sole use as a measurement of future major league sucess they are of little value. In fact, no better than random selection as a tool.

AAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

You are as dense as an incomprehensibly dense material that scientists haven't even invented yet.

Past history is the best predictor of the future, at least when it comes to baseball. If a guy in the majors has hit 30 HR each of the past 8 years, he's very likely to do it the next season. The same holds true for minor league stats. They are a bit trickier because there is a lot more outside factors such as level, age, and how well a player develops, but the overall correlation is there.

The #1 predictor of future major league success is past major league success. The #2 predictor of future major league success is past minor league success. Scouting plays a very important role as well, but if you could base your assumptions off of nothing but your eyes and weren't told a player's cumulative stats, you'd generally put together a much worse team than a guy sitting at a computer screen looking only at numbers.

[os1971]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, so what? Predict the next sucessful Oriole based on these stats. How come nobody can do it? If these stats are such good measurement tools it shouldn't be that difficult now should it?

Already clarified that. Our farm system stinks and we don't have any good prospects at AAA. If you really want to test your premise, allow somone to utilize the whole Minor League spectrum. I suspect some of the smarter ones on the board will easily disprove your "dartboard premise" wrong.

[DrungoHazewood]

Sure there is a winner. I have yet to get a challenger so I must have won. However, I don't care about winning, I just what someone, anyone on this esteemed Hangout Site to show me where stats of Orioles minor league players currently in the system will predict which player will have a sucessful major league career. Nobody, can do it. Ergo, my point has been made that stats in this situation (an interpretation or indicators of future success) are worthless tools.

They do have value as measures compared to other minor leaguers and individual progress, but when it comes to sole use as a measurement of future major league sucess they are of little value. In fact, no better than random selection as a tool.

You can claim victory if you wish, but I think the vast majority of folks here aren't taking you up on this challenge because they understand that the nature of statistical analysis of baseball isn't that's it's an infallible crystal ball, but instead a tool.

You're the only one who sees this in black and white - that stats are only a perfect predictor of the future or "worthless tools." The rest of us know better and won't fall for your baiting.

[Eli Eon]

Nobody can do it because we can't go "there, see, this person IS proven." We'd have to wait, at the very least, at about 5 years to look back and say yay or nay. Which is the other reason the challenge is retarded.

That is why I am asking for a name of a player now. There is plenty of time for him to become proven. If people are so sure that minor league stats are a good indicator of future major league peformance this should not be that difficult. What it tells me that this is a bunch of baloney that even the people who claim to espouse it aren't able to rely on at all.

Worthless, I tell ya, worthless!

[Mackus]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, so what? Predict the next sucessful Oriole based on these stats. How come nobody can do it? If these stats are such good measurement tools it shouldn't be that difficult now should it?

Because nobody knows with 100% certainly who will not get injured, who will continue to progress, and a slew of other random variables.

But what we do know, is who is the most likely to succeed. I've already told you that IMO Nolan Reimold and Billy Rowell are the two minor league hitters in the system that I think are the best bets to be at least solid regular MLB players. Of course Reimold won't even get a shot until next season and Rowell is a couple of years behind that, so we won't know for a long time.

Nick Markakis is the best answer to your question, though. Almost exactly two years ago we were on here talking about Nick as the next best thing, basing it on his minor league stats, his age, and his level of play. How'd that one turn out?

[Eli Eon]

You can claim victory if you wish, but I think the vast majority of folks here aren't taking you up on this challenge because they understand that the nature of statistical analysis of baseball isn't that's it's an infallible crystal ball, but instead a tool.

You're the only one who sees this in black and white - that stats are only a perfect predictor of the future or "worthless tools." The rest of us know better and won't fall for your baiting.

I don't disagree that it is a tool. A tool to be used in comparing minor league players to one another and measuring their progress in that respect as they advance though the levels. However, where it becomes virtually worthless is in precisely the challenge I have laid out here, and that is identifying and predicting success at the major league level. This is where the disagreement lies.

[Lt Melmo]

That is why I am asking for a name of a player now. There is plenty of time for him to become proven. If people are so sure that minor league stats are a good indicator of future major league peformance this should not be that difficult. What it tells me that this is a bunch of baloney that even the people who claim to espouse it aren't able to rely on at all. Worthless, I tell ya, worthless!

It has already been explained to you. The Orioles don't have any huge prospects at the higher levels.

I'm going to take you up on your meaningless challenge that proves nothing and say that Jay Bruce of the Reds will, given he stays healthy, hold his own in the majors. Write that down somewhere.

[Eli Eon]

It has already been explained to you. The Orioles don't have any huge prospects at the higher levels.

I'm going to take you up on your meaningless challenge that proves nothing and say that Jay Bruce of the Reds will, given he stays healthy, hold his own in the majors. Write that down somewhere.

I didn't say it had to be a "huge" prospect just a guy who will make the major league roster as a starter and become a tenured player. Somebody like Jerry Hairston would suffice. How the hell hard could it be to find someone like him in the Orioles minor league system? Yet nobody here can use minor league stats to come up with another Hairston? Kind of sad yet laughable at the same time, when people want to claim stats are a worthwhile prediction tool regarding future major league sucess.

[Sports Guy]

I don't disagree that it is a tool. A tool to be used in comparing minor league players to one another and measuring their progress in that respect as they advance though the levels. However, where it becomes virtually worthless is in precisely the challenge I have laid out here, and that is identifying and predicting success at the major league level. This is where the disagreement lies.

As many have said...The problem with using the Orioles system is either a lack of talent, health amongst the best players or they are too low in the minors to give any kind of definitive answer.

As we have also told you....NO ONE THINKS ANY PROSPECT IS A 100% GUARANTEE AND NO ONE HAS SAID MINOR LEAGUE STATS ARE 100% CORRECT ALL THE TIME.

Either you can't read or are just flat out too stupid to understand this.

Or, you just plain old ignore it because you like to piss and moan.

Either way, your challenge is worthless in the context of the Orioles.

So, to do this properly, how about we expand it to other organizations?

[CrimsonTribe]

I have a challenge for the OH. Don't respond to Eli Eon's posts. You don't have to put him on ignore (although that might help), but just quit typing back. If you are successful in this challenge the whole OH wins. He is obviously baiting everyone on purpose because no one could possibly be this stupid.