Challenge To All Statistical Gurus!

[Sports Guy]

I didn't say it had to be a "huge" prospect just a guy who will make the major league roster as a starter and become a tenured player. Somebody like Jerry Hairston would suffice. How the hell hard could it be to find someone like him in the Orioles minor league system?

Jerry Hairston hasn't been good though.

This is the problem...How are you defining good? I have asked you this 3 times now and never have you answered.....What is your definition of a good major leaguer?

[Dr. FLK]

I'll play your ridiculous game. Hoey. He'll be good. He has beats numbers in the minors, and he'll be a good RP. There. I said it. Now, find me the next pathetic minor leaguer who'll be good.

[Lt Melmo]

I didn't say it had to be a "huge" prospect just a guy who will make the major league roster as a starter and become a tenured player. Somebody like Jerry Hairston would suffice. How the hell hard could it be to find someone like him in the Orioles minor league system? Yet nobody here can use minor league stats to come up with another Hairston? Kind of sad yet laughable at the same time.

What is this about "using" stats? We don't "use" stats, the stats are what they are. You talk as if we're all manipulating stats to show the Luis Hernandez sucks.

We can't predict who the next Orioles starter will be because we don't have talent in the upper minors. For God's sake how many times does it have to be explained to you. It has nothing to do with "using" stats to fix an argument, it has to do with talent. And from the talent we have we cannot with authority predict that anyone in our upper minors will be an everyday player.

That DOES NOT mean that minor leagues aren't good predictors!

That DOES NOT mean that stats aren't good predictors!

That DOES mean that we don't have good talent at the higher levels.

You simply can't predict success when there's no talent to begin with. What about this don't you understand?

What you should be saying is "predict ANYTHING based on minor league numbers." That is easy. I'll predict right here that Luis Hernandez will never cut it as a major leaguer. That's based on his minor league numbers. There we go.

[Eli Eon]

Jerry Hairston hasn't been good though.

This is the problem...How are you defining good? I have asked you this 3 times now and never have you answered.....What is your definition of a good major leaguer?

A good major leaguer would be a Melvin Mora/Mike Bordick/Aubrey Huff type player. However, for the purposes of this challenge I laid it out in the opening thread. The player has to become a major league starter and last long enough in the big leagues to become tenured. Under that scenario a guy like Hairston would win the challenge, a guy like Bigbie would not.

[Eli Eon]

I'll play your ridiculous game. Hoey. He'll be good. He has beats numbers in the minors, and he'll be a good RP. There. I said it. Now, find me the next pathetic minor leaguer who'll be good.

All right, I think someone ought to start another thread tracking what HO poster makes what player prediction. You are the first brave soul (I thought there would at least be a couple right after I posted the thread with all the bravado that was being thrown around against me on the Bynum thread.)However, I was hoping someone would name a position player as that is what I was gearing this challenge more to.

Nontheless, I am sure now some people will start naming pitchers like Penn and Olson out the ying yang, and I don't blame them. Even I think Olson will become a good major leaguer, and possibly Hoey as well. I also think Liz could be the real deal.

[Sports Guy]

All right, I think someone ought to start another thread tracking what HO poster makes what player prediction. You are the first brave soul (I thought there would at least be a couple right after I posted the thread with all the bravado that was being thrown around against me on the Bynum thread.)However, I was hoping someone would name a position player as that is what I was gearing this challenge more to.

Nontheless, I am sure now some people will start naming pitchers like Penn and Olson out the ying yang, and I don't blame them. Even I think Olson will become a good major leaguer, and possibly Hoey as well. I also think Liz could be the real deal.

Now, you answer his question...What Orioles MiLer with bad stats will become a success?

[The Wedge]

What is this about "using" stats? We don't "use" stats, the stats are what they are. You talk as if we're all manipulating stats to show the Luis Hernandez sucks.

I used to use stats. I'm on methadone for that now.

[Eli Eon]

Now, you answer his question...What Orioles MiLer with bad stats will become a success?

I don't know any offhand but if I had to guess I would say Luis Hernandez. I also think Fahey could have a sucessful major league career.

[Eli Eon]

What is this about "using" stats? We don't "use" stats, the stats are what they are. You talk as if we're all manipulating stats to show the Luis Hernandez sucks.

We can't predict who the next Orioles starter will be because we don't have talent in the upper minors. For God's sake how many times does it have to be explained to you. It has nothing to do with "using" stats to fix an argument, it has to do with talent. And from the talent we have we cannot with authority predict that anyone in our upper minors will be an everyday player.

That DOES NOT mean that minor leagues aren't good predictors!

That DOES NOT mean that stats aren't good predictors!

That DOES mean that we don't have good talent at the higher levels.

You simply can't predict success when there's no talent to begin with. What about this don't you understand?

What you should be saying is "predict ANYTHING based on minor league numbers." That is easy. I'll predict right here that Luis Hernandez will never cut it as a major leaguer. That's based on his minor league numbers. There we go.

Okay, so are you saying no Oriole minor leaguer will have a succesful major league career? (Apparently so) That is so ludicrous I must beg to differ and I base this on observation not minor league stats! I think Olson and Hoey will both have sucess at the major league level. Try getting off the fence for once and making a decision. I love all these people who suffer from paralysis from analysis. That type of mindset would get you killed on a battlefield! Man up and make a decision for once!

[Zanetheo'sfan]

I don't know any offhand but if I had to guess I would say Luis Hernandez. I also think Fahey could have a sucessful major league career.

Brandon Fahey will suck, plain and simple. Luis Hernandez at most could probably be our Nick Punto with maybe a slight difference in average and OBP. Brandon Fahey has never been that good and has really never been considered a prospect. At tops he'll be a coach for 7 year olds

[The Wedge]

I don't know any offhand but if I had to guess I would say Luis Hernandez. I also think Fahey could have a sucessful major league career.

You don't know any offhand, but you downright demand everyone else to produce? You truly are a piece of work. Bravo. Bravo.

[ELC]

You're going to need to enroll Eli Eon in reading comprehension 101 before you try to explain anything to him unless you enjoy talking in circles for hours.

[Eli Eon]

You don't know any offhand, but you downright demand everyone else to produce? You truly are a piece of work. Bravo. Bravo.

No, I will go on record as saying Garrett Olson and Hoey. I also think Hernandez could but I doubt he gets the opportunity. So far that is three more than any of you and your stat guru buddies have had the nads to state, which is zero. (Edit Fruit Loop did pick Hoey) so there has been one of you so far. What a brave bunch! Hilarious! This isn't life and death!

[The Wedge]

No, I will go on record as saying Garrett Olson and Hoey. I also think Hernandez could but I doubt he gets the opportunity. So far that is three more than any of you and your stat guru buddies have had the nads to state, which is zero. (Edit Fruit Loop did pick Hoey) so there has been one of you so far. What a brave bunch! Hilarious! This isn't life and death!

How convenient that you forgot Mackus picked Reimold and Rowell. Just up and forgot did ya?

[JayGibbons31]

Olson and Hoey have both had success at the minor league level putting up good stats so they do not fit your argument.