Mora deal to be announced Friday...

[nadecir]

A no-trade clause is not a must-have to me. It's a part of the contract that can be negotiated around at the appropriate time. I can not back up the following assertion, but believe it to be true - the number of players who have waived this clause far outnumber those who refuse to waive it.

I imagine you don't hear about many players who refuse to waive their no-trade clause. They privately tell the team they are not interested in a trade, and teams don't bother shopping them because it is waste of time.

[byrdz]

Don't jump down Drungo's throat here, he is just telling it like it is. Mora's a great player, a good guy, but he is likely to be overpaid versus his performance during this contract.

No one is jumping down anyones throat, don't know where that came from. I guess people can't be challenge here on this board without it being misconstrued as jumping down someones throat.

Just challenging some of the tools that are used to determine the value of some of these players. Yes, they are the best tools we have, I understand that and appreciate good statistical data but they are not the end all, be all and not even conclusive, just one aspect of a players worth. Granted a big aspect but there are other intangibles to consider. In this case those intangible, I feel, are responsible for making Mora the palyer he is and ultimately proving whatever predictors wrong.

[tennOsfan]

My question is:

Does he:

a.) breath a sigh of relief and get hot.

b.) breath a sigh of relief, stop playing for next year's contract, and slump.

Put me down as good contract, good player, good feelings, etc.

Mora has too much integrity and pride to do less than his best. It's not a question.

[boogidownoriole]

Mora has too much integrity and pride to do less than his best. It's not a question.

I absolutely agree with that. Mora is self respecting most importantly and he will always play his best all the time.

Remember he has something like 11 goals in one game...the man is extremely talented.

[goodburger34]

The Orioles seem to have secured 4of their 5 infoeld positions. 2B,SS,3B & C. I'd say Gibbons is secure as 1 of 3 OFs for the next few years.

As has been the case for the last few seasons, DH, LF, CF & 1B need to be filled. Conine, Millar, Lopez & Matos clearly are not any solution and should be considered desperation measures for this year. Lopez certainly turned out to be poor signing.

While DH, LF, CF & 1B are definitely problem, i am a lot more concered about the pitching. This team has a window in the next two or three years before guys like mora, tejada, and hernandez start declining. The best part is that the Sox and Yankees probably won't be as good then too, key players on these teams are getting up there in age. But I don't have too much confidence in guys like Lowen, and Penn coming up and being dominating pitchers by then. The point is that they need to trade prospects for an ace pitcher Willis, maybe Mulder or Zito but get someone a little more consistent then what the Os have now

[RShack]

I for one am not trying to jump down anyone's throat. I just don't recall anyone using MORP or PECOTA or whatever, to say that any of the FA deals or extensions that have been done recently fall within their paramaters of a good deal. I'd be interested to know which FA deals that were done this past season are considered good deals by MORP standards.

There are two very different things that can easily get blurred together here:

1. Are MORP or PECOTA or etc. based on sound reasoning?

2. Do they provide accurate predictions?

The thing to NOT do is react as if somebody who questions #2 is somehow dissing #1. You can challenge #2 without challenging #1. It's the same old problem that you always have with complex phenomena: the *best* predictions are usually still lousy predictions. They're just less-lousy than the alternatives. This is not bashing the formulas they use, it's just saying the "state of the art" isn't very good.

Whether this applies to MORP and PECOTA, I don't know. To find out, we'd have to see how well they have done *in the past* at predicting things for Mora and other late-bloomers. The fact that MORP might be new doesn't change this: you can still plug in old numbers to a new formula and see how well it did at predicting in the past. Same thing for PECOTA: How well did it do at predicting Mora and other late-bloomers (Kent? Finley? etc.).

What's not reasonable is to say they were off the mark in the past (I don't know if they were or weren't) but that somehow doesn't matter now. The best predictor of their success is their past success. For a guy with a late-bloomer history, you have to look at their success with predicting salary and performance for other late-bloomers. If you don't do this, then it just devolves into a faith-based yelling contest.

Also: a specific question... Do we know how much Mora's current bargain contract warps the MORP view of what good 3B are worth?

[keysersose]

The Orioles seem to have secured 4of their 5 infoeld positions. 2B,SS,3B & C. I'd say Gibbons is secure as 1 of 3 OFs for the next few years.

As has been the case for the last few seasons, DH, LF, CF & 1B need to be filled. Conine, Millar, Lopez & Matos clearly are not any solution and should be considered desperation measures for this year. Lopez certainly turned out to be poor signing.

While DH, LF, CF & 1B are definitely problem, i am a lot more concered about the pitching. This team has a window in the next two or three years before guys like mora, tejada, and hernandez start declining. The best part is that the Sox and Yankees probably won't be as good then too, key players on these teams are getting up there in age. But I don't have too much confidence in guys like Lowen, and Penn coming up and being dominating pitchers by then. The point is that they need to trade prospects for an ace pitcher Willis, maybe Mulder or Zito but get someone a little more consistent then what the Os have now

Absolutely agree. Spending that MASN money on pitching will make the Orioles as competitive as any team in the East. The Red Sox are the most overrated team in baseball. Their pitching isn't that good, Schilling won;t last the year.

Toronto looks like the team to beat in the next few years. Their pitching is younger and capable of lasting the next few years.

The Yanks have huge pitching problems.

If the Orioles don;t understand the market and market value for pitching (as BJ Ryan indicated they have no clue), then the O's will be floundering for the next generation.

[Mark Carver]

If the Orioles don;t understand the market and market value for pitching (as BJ Ryan indicated they have no clue), then the O's will be floundering for the next generation.

And Toronto's understanding in the market, especially in pitching is what?

Burnett = 5 yrs, $55m

Ryan = 5 yrs, $47m

[byrdz]

And Toronto's understanding in the market, especially in pitching is what?

Burnett = 5 yrs, $55m

Ryan = 5 yrs, $47m

Exactly.

By the way, what's Burnett up to these days?

[Cokeman]

Not a free agent until the end of the 2008 season!

Really? Come on, give me a little bit of credit at least. And it has recently been said that Roberts is next in line for an extension...so I don't really know what your point is.

[Mark Carver]

Really? Come on, give me a little bit of credit at least. And it has recently been said that Roberts is next in line for an extension...so I don't really know what your point is.

I don't think they need to rush right out and sign him to an extension...

[goodburger34]

And Toronto's understanding in the market, especially in pitching is what?

Burnett = 5 yrs, $55m

Ryan = 5 yrs, $47m

Toronto screwed up by signing Burnett, but Bal is going to have to overpay, even by todays standards, to get someone like Mulder or Zito to come here. the rotation looks much better with an ace at the top. That would make Bedard or Benson a two or three, and Cabrera a 4(where if he develops into an stud great, if he doesn't he can still scare batters for five inning and give the team a chance to win), and hopefully someone (Penn, Lowen, Lopez, Chen), could step up and be able to take the 5th spot. But if they don't overpay for someone the Yanks and Sox will get them and if/when most of our prospects fail to pan out, Os fans will be left waiting for next generation of prospects change things.

[Cokeman]

I don't think they need to rush right out and sign him to an extension...

Yeah, you're right...let's allow him to keep increasing his value before we lock him up.

[keysersose]

And Toronto's understanding in the market, especially in pitching is what?

Burnett = 5 yrs, $55m

Ryan = 5 yrs, $47m

The only stats that count.

2006 YTD

Toronto 23 - 17

Baltimore 19 - 22

Toronto took a chance on Burnett and paid market vaule for Ryan. Ryan and his 0.83 ERA would look right now, with Ray as his set up.

BTW If Mora's worth 8 million at 34 year old, doesn't Glaus look pretty good at 29 years old for 9 or 10?

[Sports Guy]

The only stats that count.

2006 YTD

Toronto 23 - 17

Baltimore 19 - 22

Toronto took a chance on Burnett and paid market vaule for Ryan. Ryan and his 0.83 ERA would look right now, with Ray as his set up.

BTW If Mora's worth 8 million at 34 year old, doesn't Glaus look pretty good at 29 years old for 9 or 10?

Do you think we should have matched or beaten the contract Ryan got?