Impossible task...Rank our prospects

[Elon Os Fan]

Okay, Tanaka is 26 and doing a good job of getting AA hitters out. Why should I be impressed? What's his ceiling and why should he even make a top 20? Any other 26 year old pitcher who was doing what he's doing in AA would be met with a yawn, IMO. He's the equivalent of a minor league veteran except he was in Japan for a bunch of years. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Considering that the Os are thinking about sending him to the AFL must mean they see something they like.....

[tywright]

Some prerequisites for top 30s:

• Everybody should have Ryan Adams in their top 30
  
• Florimon is not a top 15 prospect...he's hitting .224 since June 1 and has 33 errors
  
• If you put Rowell in your top 20, please give us a good reason
  
• We don't know much about Frabizio, but don't leave him off your list
  

[PBR Street Gang]

It's really hard to judge some of those guys considering that they haven't played any professional baseball yet. Including any of them anywhere is just a bigger guess really. Rowell used to be included in the top 5 way back when. Remember that?

A better thread would be guessing the top 8 of the 2009 draft.

[tywright]

Everyone is entitled to an opinion. Adams future at 2B or any infield position is questionable. He doesn't look to have the kind of bat that looks to play as a regular in the OF. Henson is a year younger and much more athletic. I can't project Adams as a ML regular, hence why I kept him off altogether. I disagree on Florimon but understand why others disagree. He plays a premium position and by all accounts will stay at SS. SS's generally have high error totals in the minors. I don't think the error total is a big deal at this point. He has slacked off in the 2nd half but don't forget the .320 avg and 1.000+ OPS in May either. He's showed some power and speed this year and he plays a premium position. We have a ton of pitchers who could make the list. Most of the reason I didn't put Frabizio on my list is because we don't know much about him. Until I hear different, I'm going to assume average to marginal stuff, despite the good numbers. I left Beal off and I would put him on before Frabizio.

BTW, your title "prerequisites for the top 30" makes it sound like you are some kind of expert giving advice. Thanks! lol

Well when you put Hughes (26 years old) and Cooney on your lists ahead of players like Adams, Beal, and Frabizio, it makes me wonder...:scratchchinhmm:

[QBsILLEST1]

I think the bottom line is that there are many more questions than answers at this juncture.

It certainly FEELS like this was a deep draft, but at the end of the day, does anyone really know?

Yes, this is a very deep draft. What is unknown is how well this potential will transform into skill.

[mler1019]

Not trying to stop discussion, but why now? Why not wait another two-three weeks and wait for the minor league season to be over?

Tony, a question here...

Guys who are signed at on the last day (like Matusz and Strasburg) usually dont play in the minors that season, and if mature and ready enough, their team will send them to go play in the fall (like Matusz and Strasburg). We have some guys who have not yet been assigned to teams, do we expect them to play this season? (I know these guys arent fall league candidates) Like you said, wait a few weeks? Or will guys like Mychal Givens, Randy Henry, Ashur Tolliver, Ryan Berry, Michael Ohlman, Cameron Coffey, Kyle Hoppy, and Timothy Berry not see the field this season. I know some are recovering form injury, some will be sent to our facilities. This may have been a little confusing (sorry!), but I guess in the end I am just curious what will happen in the near future with this group of players.

Thanks!

[Crazysilver03]

Tony, a question here...

Guys who are signed at on the last day (like Matusz and Strasburg) usually dont play in the minors that season, and if mature and ready enough, their team will send them to go play in the fall (like Matusz and Strasburg). We have some guys who have not yet been assigned to teams, do we expect them to play this season? (I know these guys arent fall league candidates) Like you said, wait a few weeks? Or will guys like Mychal Givens, Randy Henry, Ashur Tolliver, Ryan Berry, Michael Ohlman, Cameron Coffey, Kyle Hoppy, and Timothy Berry not see the field this season. I know some are recovering form injury, some will be sent to our facilities. This may have been a little confusing (sorry!), but I guess in the end I am just curious what will happen in the near future with this group of players.

Thanks!

I know for a fact that Givens is going to GCL only to work out but wont be activated. He will make his debut in the instructional league.

[QBsILLEST1]

Fair points, especially on Hughes. Cooney only profiles as a short reliever but he's got mid 90's stuff. Beal has a lot of projection but his stuff, from what I've read, is average at this point. His numbers at Bluefield support this. Again, until I hear different, I have to assume that Frabizio's to average stuff. I'm not going to rank him higher just based on good numbers at Bluefield. Cooney probably has a better shot at making the majors than Adams, Beal, and Frabizio. I could say the same about Hughes but being a 1B/DH is going to limit his oppurtunities at the big league level.

Beal's stuff is not average at all IMO. His calling card is his projectability, and that has already begun to occur. Last I checked earlier this season, he got his fastball into the 92-93 range(up from upper 80's a year ago) and continues to gain the velo as stated by BA. Also, he has a plus curveball in his repetoire as well. He has excellent command and was labeled the best pitcher in extended ST(over Bundy). I like Beal a lot actually and as he gains a bit more velo with that good curve and excellent command, could become a very good pitcher. What I do not know is about a 3rd and possibly 4th pitch, but age is on his side and is a more complete pitcher than most at his age. And an ERA in the 3's IMO is better than average, especially when its his 1st full season and the competition is a bit older than he is....

And I do agree about Fabrizio, we dont know much about him, but even if he had just 1 plus pitch, IMO he would have been drafted at some point. His stuff is probably average, but Id like to get a true scouting report on him because he has pitched quite well.....

[Three Run Homer]

I'll just stick to a top 10 for now. I'm leaving out any rookies currently in the majors (including Mickolio). I'm also leaving out any draftees that haven't actually played yet.

1. Bell

2. Arietta

3. Britton

4. Snyder

5. Erbe

6. Hobgood

7. Joseph

8. Spoone

9. Beal

10. Johnson

I think Bell's power numbers have been held down all season by the Southern League's big ballparks. I don't think he's going to continue hitting .400, but I think the power surge we're seeing from him since the trade is for real--he definitely has middle-of-the-order potential, which for me makes him number one.

[Three Run Homer]

Color me skeptical on Beal. Hard to believe a guy with a 92-93 mph fastball and plus curve having the low strikeout rate that he's got in a rookie league.

Maybe he's not getting strikeouts because he's getting hitters to pound the ball into the ground early in the count? His GO/AO ratio is 2.

[QBsILLEST1]

Color me skeptical on Beal. Hard to believe a guy with a 92-93 mph fastball and plus curve having the low strikeout rate that he's got in a rookie league.

Well, it may be because he is facing older competition ansd also that his fastball while 92-93 is slightly better than average, its not completely overpowering yet. But to put some perspective in it, Bobby Bundy who is said to have a mid 90 fastball and a plus curve(was said to be one of best in 08 draft) only has a K/9 of 6.4. Im chalking it up to the older competition and it being their first real stint in pro ball, kinda like Hernandez and Tillman making the transition to the majors and the K's havent really come yet, but they will. I just really hope that Beal gains a few more MPH with his command and we will have something pretty special, in the mold of Tillman if you think about it, just with better command.....

[QBsILLEST1]

The reason its not wishful thinking is because in the article from BA, they even said something along the lines of "Beal just keeps on gaining more and more velocity as time goes on" the article came out some time around the 09 draft, it was in an article having to do with one of the HS pitchers we drafted this season. Maybe to you its wishful thinking, but for a kid to go from throwing 88 MPH to 93 MPH in under a year is pretty remarkable, and as he still has more room to grow and the fact BA said he is expected to gain more velo and that he is someone to watch, that is what he is, someone to watch. I compared him to Tillman because he is tall and projectable and has a good fastball and hammer curve, not saying he is going to perform just like Tillman, its a comp. Is any comp a true comp? Of course not because no 2 players perform similarly, and also, even though Tillman struck out more batters in the same level, Beal has much better command. The K's will come as he gains more polish and velocity, its what we call development, not wishful thinking. Wishful thinking is putting Pedro Florimon in the O's top 15 prospect list, not saying Beal is gonna gain more velocity as he fills out.

[Crazysilver03]

I'll give you rep points if you can give me two sources that say Beal throws 92-93 right now. You have been known to exaggerate. I explained my reasoning on Florimon. I didn't make anything up out of thin air.

I found this:

10. Thoughts on Jesse Beal's success at Bluefield?

Isaac Barrow: It's especially encouraging. Beal, at 18, has plenty of time to emerge as a reliever, or a back-end starter. At 6'6", he's a physical specimen. But it's not all he possesses. Despite being a 14th round pick in 2008, he's a very intriguing prospect.

His size is appealing, but he's got exceptional command, and can attack hitters. In six starts, he's 2-3 with a 3.57 ERA, two walks, and 20 strikeouts. If he can move along a year at a time, he can be 23 in the majors, at which point he could be a back end starter or a long reliever, either role would suit me if he continues to pitch this well.

Lawrence Barreca: With Beal, I see potential. We are looking at an 18-year old kid who is 2-3 with a 3.57 ERA at Bluefield. He has a nice 20/2 K-BB ratio, which is always good to know. For all we know, this kid could be among our top prospects in 3-5 years.

Zachary Ball: The book on Beal is that he's pretty raw, but features great intangibles. He is 6'7'' and has more room to grow, meaning his velocity could improve from the already impressive 92-95 mph that he already has. He also has a good fastball, curve and changeup, which has allowed him to do so well so young.

I would liken his path to the Majors to first-round pick Matt Hobgood's. They'll both move slow, but they'll gradually improve at each level. I think Beal has a very bright future ahead of him. I just hope he can reach it.

[QBsILLEST1]

Hm, so I guess i was under exaggerating, 92-95 with pin point control and 2 good secondary pitches. And as I said, thats up from 88 MPH his senior year in HS. So why is comparing him to Tillman such a hard thing to fathom? I mean shoot when Tillman was age 18, he was in the same boat as Beal its not Tillman was always the top RHSP prospect in the game.

[crawdad]

Please tell me these guys are serious scouts. If Beal throws 92-95 right now, then he'll be a top 5 prospect in the Appalachian league, if not the #1 overall prospect. These aren't three bloggers talking to each other on a website like we are, is it?

One of the guys is 16 years old.