Impossible task...Rank our prospects

[LookinUp]

I admit, this is a crap shoot. I wanted to get the discussion going on where these guys fit though. I'd note four things:

1. We'll need more than a top 30 list this year. Our system is incredibly deep. Top 50 it is.

2. We'll have a lot of prospects in the C to B range. We're not top heavy any more. It's impossible to correctly order most of these guys today.

3. This is biased to guys already in our system.

4. I'm assuming that Matusz and Tillman will graduate.

1) Arrieta

2) Britton

3) Bell

4) Snyder

5) Hobgood

6) Erbe

7) Joseph

8) Ohlman

9) Coffey

10) Mickolio

11) Beal

12) Welty

13) Givens

14) Spoone

15) Patton

16) Johnson

17) Townsend

18) Avery

19) Bundy

20) Hoes

21) Turner

22) Waring

23) Drake

24) Tanaka

25) Bascom

26) Jacobson

27) Wirsch

28) Webb

29) Berry

30) Tolliver

31) Henry

32) Perrault

33) Perez

34) Noel

35) Adams

36) Henson

37) Hoppy

38) Martin

39) Frabrizio

40) Gamboa

41) Cowan

42) Mariotti

43) Egan

44) Butler

45) Widlansky

46) Rowell

47) Zagone

48) Florimon

49) Kolodny

50) Beato

[Tony-OH]

Not trying to stop discussion, but why now? Why not wait another two-three weeks and wait for the minor league season to be over?

[QBsILLEST1]

I admit, this is a crap shoot. I wanted to get the discussion going on where these guys fit though. I'd note four things:

1. We'll need more than a top 30 list this year. Our system is incredibly deep. Top 50 it is.

2. We'll have a lot of prospects in the C to B range. We're not top heavy any more. It's impossible to correctly order most of these guys today.

3. This is biased to guys already in our system.

4. I'm assuming that Matusz and Tillman will graduate.

1) Arrieta

2) Britton

3) Bell

4) Snyder

5) Hobgood

6) Erbe

7) Joseph

8) Ohlman

9) Coffey

10) Mickolio

11) Beal

12) Welty

13) Givens

14) Spoone

15) Patton

16) Johnson

17) Townsend

18) Avery

19) Bundy

20) Hoes

21) Turner

22) Waring

23) Drake

24) Tanaka

25) Bascom

26) Jacobson

27) Wirsch

28) Webb

29) Berry

30) Tolliver

31) Henry

32) Perrault

33) Perez

34) Noel

35) Adams

36) Henson

37) Hoppy

38) Martin

39) Frabrizio

40) Gamboa

41) Cowan

42) Mariotti

43) Egan

44) Butler

45) Widlansky

46) Rowell

47) Zagone

48) Florimon

49) Kolodny

50) Beato

Cowan IMO is very low, even though we took him in the 10 rd, he was slated as a first day guy who fell due to signability. IMO Cowan should actually be palced above Wirsch. I say this only because Cowan is further developed and because he throws hard and has 3 solid pitches finding success in Aberdeen at a pretty young age, I put him over Wirsch. Wirsch is VERY projectable, but until he gains that extra velo, his ceiling is no where near the same. On that token, I havent seen him pitch and his K/9 would suggest that his stuff is pretty good, GCL or not.

As a side note, I started to attempt a top 30 or so list, but its just too hard to do with these draftees included with some making their pro debut and others just becoming a member of our system. We do not know how Coffey, Henry, Tolliver and all the position players will fare in their first pro season. I do know some have higher ceilings than others, but at this juncture for me its impossible to make a list with any kind of structure....

And also, I had high hope for Butler myself, but after speaking with Gulfbird about his current velocity, it doesnt sound like Butler is someone worth putting much value in anymore. Apparently the kid is topping out at around 84....about 10 MPH less than where he was when fully healthy....Not a good thing...at all.

[LookinUp]

Not trying to stop discussion, but why now? Why not wait another two-three weeks and wait for the minor league season to be over?

I'm actually eagerly awaiting your write-up on the draft to better inform the conversation.

I'm not sure what we will learn from the next 2-3 weeks of play though.

Either way, this list is ridiculously deep.

[QBsILLEST1]

I'm actually eagerly awaiting your write-up on the draft to better inform the conversation.

I'm not sure what we will learn from the next 2-3 weeks of play though.

Either way, this list is ridiculously deep.

Yes, the list is very very deep, the problem is that its now deep in unproven talent. We wont reap the benefits of this strong draft until atleast a year from now, and even further beyond that.

[crawdad]

I'm actually eagerly awaiting your write-up on the draft to better inform the conversation.

I'm not sure what we will learn from the next 2-3 weeks of play though.

Either way, this list is ridiculously deep.

I imagine some guys are benefiting from helium infusion from the end of the signing period. That said . . . our depth is very much high upside/high risk as opposed to last year where we had several anchors.

It is nice money is being spent on acquiring domestic talent. Maybe we break out internationally soon. I imagine though that domestic talent might be more cost efficient though since the market is so restricted.

[LookinUp]

Cowan IMO is very low

How dare you disagree with anything in this list.

You're right about the youngness of our guys. Short season ball in 2010 might be really interesting to follow.

[QBsILLEST1]

I imagine some guys are benefiting from helium infusion from the end of the signing period. That said . . . our depth is very much high upside/high risk as opposed to last year where we had several anchors.

It is nice money is being spent on acquiring domestic talent. Maybe we break out internationally soon. I imagine though that domestic talent might be more cost efficient though since the market is so restricted.

It honestly makes sense. Why pay $3 Mill for Ashurito Tolliveringuez of DR when you can pay $500K for Ashur Tolliver from the US.

[LookinUp]

I imagine some guys are benefiting from helium infusion from the end of the signing period. That said . . . our depth is very much high upside/high risk as opposed to last year where we had several anchors.

It is nice money is being spent on acquiring domestic talent. Maybe we break out internationally soon. I imagine though that domestic talent might be more cost efficient though since the market is so restricted.

This is what I'm trying to understand. I'm sure several of these guys are getting more ink by posters on this site than they deserve, but it's really all I have to go by.

I just realized that I left Tyler Kelly and Dalles off. I don't think either are that highly rated, but if anyone's using this thread to compile their own list at some point...

[crawdad]

This is what I'm trying to understand. I'm sure several of these guys are getting more ink by posters on this site than they deserve, but it's really all I have to go by.

I just realized that I left Tyler Kelly and Dalles off. I don't think either are that highly rated, but if anyone's using this thread to compile their own list at some point...

I think folks are probably a bit more excited by Coffey than they should be. Overslots are paid not what they are worth, but based on what they might be worth. One can overassess value with them.

[wickedwitch]

My list isn't finished - and probably won't be until the end of the season, but the one big difference is that I have Coffey and Ohlman a lot lower than you do. Big signing bonus != top prospect, although it is somewhat correlated.

[LookinUp]

I think folks are probably a bit more excited by Coffey than they should be. Overslots are paid not what they are worth, but based on what they might be worth. One can overassess value with them.

Yeah, I struggled with him. On one hand, he's a 6'5" lefty that was reportedly throwing 94-95 with a good change-up. OTOH, he didn't do that for very long until he had TJ surgery.

In the end, I figured his ceiling was too high to drop down the list.

[LookinUp]

My list isn't finished - and probably won't be until the end of the season, but the one big difference is that I have Coffey and Ohlman a lot lower than you do. Big signing bonus != top prospect, although it is somewhat correlated.

It'll be interesting to see where they relate to Avery, Waring and Hoes in Tony's rankings. It's probably unfair to put the hitters (including Givens) ahead of Avery, but really I don't know.

[crawdad]

Yeah, I struggled with him. On one hand, he's a 6'5" lefty that was reportedly throwing 94-95 with a good change-up. OTOH, he didn't do that for very long until he had TJ surgery.

In the end, I figured his ceiling was too high to drop down the list.

I would view it as a guy with a high ceiling, but also a good chance of getting nowhere near it. It would not surprise me to see him emerge as a backend bullpen power arm. I cannot find much positive regarding his secondary pitches or how his arm action might play into them. I don't know. Not a lot is out there as he just did not garner much attention before getting shut down.

[Crazysilver03]

I am impressed with your ability to get all the names down without forgetting anyone big, or at least it appears that way.

I would rank Turner higher than 21st. I would rank Ryan Adams much higher than mid-30s, he is a 11-20 talent. I would rank Noel much lower since he had to play in the DSL and missed a year of development.