The Curious Case of Nick Markakis

[KAZ97]

Nick's downturn in performance in 2009 was troubling. One partial explanation might be that in 2009 he spent alot less time batting second then in previous years and that over the course of his career he has performed significantly better there.

Another part of the explanation might be that in 2009 he faced lefties alot more than in the past, and performed worse against them than previously.

	%atbats vs Lefties	vs Lefties		vs Righties2006		24%		.286/.333/.378		.293/.356/.4702007		30%		.274/.318/.457		.311/.382/.4982008		32%		.297/.381/.461		.310/.418/.5052009		40%		.262/.305/.376		.314/.376/.507

For perspective, the league average for 2009 was 27% of at bats involved a lefty pitcher. For some reason (luck? make up of staffs in AL East?) the Orioles as a team faced lefties 35% of the time. Even beyond that (late inning pitching changes?) Nick faced lefties 40% of the time last year.

Yes, the sample size is large enough to statistically say that Nick faced lefties more often than one would expected by chance when compared against his teammates.

Two questions for this upcoming season:

(1) Can Nick improve his performance against lefties?

(2) Will Nick face lefties less often, perhaps a rate closer to the rest of the league or team?

[SilentJames]

We did seem to face a ton of lefties last year. Nick had a down year - every player has them. I am confident that Nick will rebound with little difficulty.

[Woody Held]

Nick's downturn in performance in 2009 was troubling. One partial explanation might be that in 2009 he spent alot less time batting second then in previous years and that over the course of his career he has performed significantly better there.

Another part of the explanation might be that in 2009 he faced lefties alot more than in the past, and performed worse against them than previously.

	%atbats vs Lefties	vs Lefties		vs Righties2006		24%		.286/.333/.378		.293/.356/.4702007		30%		.274/.318/.457		.311/.382/.4982008		32%		.297/.381/.461		.310/.418/.5052009		40%		.262/.305/.376		.314/.376/.507

For perspective, the league average for 2009 was 27% of at bats involved a lefty pitcher. For some reason (luck? make up of staffs in AL East?) the Orioles as a team faced lefties 35% of the time. Even beyond that (late inning pitching changes?) Nick faced lefties 40% of the time last year.

Yes, the sample size is large enough to statistically say that Nick faced lefties more often than one would expected by chance when compared against his teammates.

Two questions for this upcoming season:

(1) Can Nick improve his performance against lefties?

(2) Will Nick face lefties less often, perhaps a rate closer to the rest of the league or team?

Another reason Free Agents like Larouche want no part of a one year contract with the Orioles.

[Mackus]

I just think mostly he had a down year, and facing extra lefties didn't help.

I think he'll face lefties slightly more often than the rest of the O's team, as he'll get matched up late in games fairly often. But I don't think he'll have 40% of his PAs against LHP again, that was a really high number. For his career he's faced lefties 32% of the time, I'd say he'll probably be around that in 2010, which should help, and so should just him bouncing back and performing better than he did in 2009. I don't know if he'll have the .900 OPS like he did in 2008, although I hope he does, but I do think he should be at least an .850 OPS.

[JTrea81]

Nick's downturn in performance in 2009 was troubling. One partial explanation might be that in 2009 he spent alot less time batting second then in previous years and that over the course of his career he has performed significantly better there.

Another part of the explanation might be that in 2009 he faced lefties alot more than in the past, and performed worse against them than previously.

	%atbats vs Lefties	vs Lefties		vs Righties2006		24%		.286/.333/.378		.293/.356/.4702007		30%		.274/.318/.457		.311/.382/.4982008		32%		.297/.381/.461		.310/.418/.5052009		40%		.262/.305/.376		.314/.376/.507

For perspective, the league average for 2009 was 27% of at bats involved a lefty pitcher. For some reason (luck? make up of staffs in AL East?) the Orioles as a team faced lefties 35% of the time. Even beyond that (late inning pitching changes?) Nick faced lefties 40% of the time last year.

Yes, the sample size is large enough to statistically say that Nick faced lefties more often than one would expected by chance when compared against his teammates.

Two questions for this upcoming season:

(1) Can Nick improve his performance against lefties?

(2) Will Nick face lefties less often, perhaps a rate closer to the rest of the league or team?

Looking at the pitching staffs:

Red Sox:

SP John Lester

RP Hideki Okajima

Yankees:

SP CC Sabathia

SP Andy Pettitte

RP Damaso Marte

Rays:

SP David Price

RP JP Howell

RP Jake McGee

Jays:

SP Rickey Romero

SP David Purcey

SP Brett Cecil

RP Brian Tallet

RP Jesse Carlson

RP Scott Downs

Looking at this list it would appear the Jays have a ton of LHP, but the others in the division, not so much.

[DrungoHazewood]

I just think mostly he had a down year, and facing extra lefties didn't help.

I think he'll face lefties slightly more often than the rest of the O's team, as he'll get matched up late in games fairly often. But I don't think he'll have 40% of his PAs against LHP again, that was a really high number. For his career he's faced lefties 32% of the time, I'd say he'll probably be around that in 2010, which should help, and so should just him bouncing back and performing better than he did in 2009. I don't know if he'll have the .900 OPS like he did in 2008, although I hope he does, but I do think he should be at least an .850 OPS.

I think the "stickiness" of R/L splits in PAs by team and player are pretty weak year-to-year. Both Nick and the O's should face fewer of them this year, as their rates last year were very high. Yes, Nick will face more lefties than the team as a whole, because Nick is exactly the type of player that LOOGYs exist to face.

So, I think Nick had a down year that was exacerbated by the extreme lefty numbers and both should turn the other way this year.

Oh, and I'd like to reiterate my belief that batting order splits have almost no predictive value going forward.

[rhall]

I think the higher % of lefties that Markakis faced may have been influenced by the fact that he and Aubrey Huff were sandwiched together for much of the year. In the late innings, when coming up to the opponent's 3 & 4 hitters, if they're both lefties, you'd be hard pressed not to bring in your best lefty reliever to finish them off.

Hopefully Trembley can put together a lineup that's a little more balanced this year and in the future.

[berto]

I don't necessarily believe he had a real bad year like others do, he still managed to have 100 plus RBI's. Although, his OPS and OPS both had huge dropoffs, didn't have as high of an average as we are used to from him, and he didn't have much power. I think several things contributed to this, mainly the O's faced a ridiculous amount of left handers last year. I know we won't face nearly as much this year. I also feel he didn't have much help in the lineup and had alot of pressure on him last year. With that said I feel he just had a down year and can bounce back and return to 2008 form.

[buckeye state]

It's nothing I observed, nor do I have any evidence, but another reason for his sharp drop in production toward the end of the season could be that he was nursing an injury. Remember, Jones, Reimold, and Pie were on the Dl, and Nick being a good team player may have hid an injury to help the team.

[srock]

I don't necessarily believe he had a real bad year like others do, he still managed to have 100 plus RBI's. Although, his OPS and OPS both had huge dropoffs, didn't have as high of an average as we are used to from him, and he didn't have much power. I think several things contributed to this, mainly the O's faced a ridiculous amount of left handers last year. I know we won't face nearly as much this year. I also feel he didn't have much help in the lineup and had alot of pressure on him last year. With that said I feel he just had a down year and can bounce back and return to 2008 form.

A bad year for Nick is a good year for 75% of the players in baseball. He should bounce back. In fact, Markakis is the least of my worries.

Well, 2nd to least. Matt Wieters eats worries for breakfast.

[Art Wing]

40% seems like a pretty large percentage to face lefties. I would think that has to go down this year.

[Moose Milligan]

He needs to bat 2nd. Problem solved.

[KAZ97]

Nick had a down year - every player has them....

I just think mostly he had a down year....

So, I think Nick had a down year...

With the caveat that Nick needs to draw more walks across the board, 60% of his at-bats were against righties. And that number is expect to increase. I'll draw your attention again to his SLG:

	vs Righties2006	.4702007	.4982008	.5052009	.507

And then ask, did Nick have a bad year? or did he simply struggle against lefties?

[NewMarketSean]

With the caveat that Nick needs to draw more walks across the board, 60% of his at-bats were against righties. And that number is expect to increase. I'll draw your attention again to his SLG:

	vs Righties2006	.4702007	.4982008	.5052009	.507

And then ask, did Nick have a bad year? or did he simply struggle against lefties?

His OPS against LHP improved each year from his rookie season before diving last year. It was his worst season against LHP, even worse than his rookie season.

I would think that the more LHP he faced, the better he'd become over time against LHP.

It'll be interesting to see how he does against LHP this year.

[Frobby]

Nick is way down on my list of players to worry about. I think the O's will continue to see a lot of LHP if they show early in the year that they can't hit them any better than last year. Opposing managers aren't stupid and there's no doubt other teams loaded up on LHP when they played us last year once the trend was established. I seem to recall a stretch where we faced LH starters 11 times in 14 games or something like that.