The Curious Case of Nick Markakis

[Roll Tide]

Nick's been the Orioles best hitter the past few years. Since Huff fell off the table in the 1st half of last year & then was traded. Jones had hot in a spurt/ fell off severly & then out with injury. Why anyone would give Nick anything to hit is beyond me.

[Mackus]

Nick's been the Orioles best hitter the past few years. Since Huff fell off the table in the 1st half of last year & then was traded. Jones had hot in a spurt/ fell off severly & then out with injury. Why anyone would give Nick anything to hit is beyond me.

Well then Nick should take more pitches, which is what people are saying in this thread. He swung at more pitches out of the strike zone last year than we're used to seeing from him.

Hopefully that will change and he'll either draw a lot more walks, like in 2008, which will help the team, or pitchers will start throwing him more strikes and he'll get back to crushing those.

[JTrea81]

Well then Nick should take more pitches, which is what people are saying in this thread. He swung at more pitches out of the strike zone last year than we're used to seeing from him.

That's what happens when you start getting pitched around because the guy behind you isn't much of a threat and you are getting sick of it and want to try to force something.

Hence why we really needed that bat that was a consistent force in the lineup behind Markakis.

[Lucky Jim]

That's what happens when you start getting pitched around because the guy behind you isn't much of a threat and you are getting sick of it and want to try to force something.

Hence why we really needed that bat that was a consistent force in the lineup behind Markakis.

Wow. You're like the Usain Bolt of causation/correlation confusion. I think I just heard two sonic booms as you twice blew by that distinction.

[Old#5fan]

All this over-the-top (in my view at least) analysis of every AB of NM is a bit much.

Time for some common sense to be introduced in presenting my theory on why he apparently regressed.

He does hit better batting second as I and others here have noted and proclaimed all along despite some bitter arguments that we knew not what we were talking about. JTreas, for all the unnecessary grief he takes here hit on a big part of why he also struggled moreso in 2009 than in the past and that is the simple fact he had no protection behind him so he was not getting as many good pitches to hit.

Also, as others touched on there is more pressure batting third in a lineup than second. Anyone who has played the game knows that a manager has certain expectations out of a lineup. The leadoff man should get on base, and be tough to strikeout.

The second hitter should be able to bunt and advance the runners by moving them over.

The third place hitter is always your best hitter on the team. Hence that is where Frank Robinson hit and was the best Orioles all-around hitter ever.

So Nick doesn't like the pressure of batting third, didn't get as many good pitches to hit as he had no protection in the lineup.

As far as worrying about seeing a high number of lefties I must ask you stat guys this - did any of the great hitters I have seen some of you compare Markakis with struggle so much against lefties? I don't know but I seriously doubt that HOF guys like Brett and Boggs or Gwynn had all that much trouble hitting lefties. So perhaps another part of this is Markakis was simply over-rated here to begin with which is what I have been maintaining all along.

As such (if I am correct) there is nothing curious about NM at all and this thread is moot.

[KAZ97]

As far as worrying about seeing a high number of lefties I must ask you stat guys this - did any of the great hitters I have seen some of you compare Markakis with struggle so much against lefties? I don't know but I seriously doubt that HOF guys like Brett and Boggs or Gwynn had all that much trouble hitting lefties.

I'm not sure if this is rhetorical, but if you are looking for a name, Nick compares pretty well to HOF Carl Yastrzemski. By almost any measure, Yaz was much worse against lefties than righties.

[primetime]

We did seem to face a ton of lefties last year. Nick had a down year - every player has them. I am confident that Nick will rebound with little difficulty.

I know it's something that you can't quantify as to how it affects on field performance but didn't Nick and his wife have a baby during the season last year? I don't care who you are or in what profession you're in, if there's a newborn in your house, EVERYTHING in your life is going to be difficult for the next year.

Maybe he was just sleep deprived?

[Lucky Jim]

I'm not sure if this is rhetorical, but if you are looking for a name, Nick compares pretty well to HOF Carl Yastrzemski. By almost any measure, Yaz was much worse against lefties than righties.

George Brett's 25-year-old year:

Split  	         G  	GS  	PA  	AB  	R  	H  	2B  	3B  	HR  	RBI  	SB  	CS  	BB  	SO  	BA  	OBP  	SLG  	OPS  	TB  	GDP  	HBP  	SH  	SF  	IBB  	ROE  	BAbip  	tOPS+  	sOPS+vs RHP as LH 	113 		391 	361 		112 	33 	8 	8 	46 	21 	5 	28 	24 	.310 	.358 	.512 	.871 	185 	4 	0 	0 	2 	6 	3 	.314 	114 	138vs LHP as LH 	67 		167 	149 		38 	12 	0 	1 	16 	2 	2 	11 	11 	.255 	.305 	.356 	.661 	53 	2 	1 	3 	3 	0 	5 	.264 	65 	100

[Frobby]

I have an observation that is difficult to quantify with numbers. I believe Nick has become somewhat predictable at the plate, and the pitchers took advantage of that in 2009. For instance, Nick will almost never swing at a first pitch, even one right down the middle. Pitchers have figured this out and are throwing him a ton of first pitch strikes. The result is he bats from behind in the count quite often. I got frustrated at times last year watching Nick pass up a fastball down the middle on strike one, and then swinging at a much tougher pitch to hit in a disadvangeous count. I know Nick likes to see some pitches before he hacks, but I think he needs to be a bit less predictable in his pattern, sort of like what BRob has been able to do. BRob is a patient hitter, but he goes up there hacking often enough to keep pitchers honest on strike one.

[El Gordo]

I have an observation that is difficult to quantify with numbers. I believe Nick has become somewhat predictable at the plate, and the pitchers took advantage of that in 2009. For instance, Nick will almost never swing at a first pitch, even one right down the middle. Pitchers have figured this out and are throwing him a ton of first pitch strikes. The result is he bats from behind in the count quite often. I got frustrated at times last year watching Nick pass up a fastball down the middle on strike one, and then swinging at a much tougher pitch to hit in a disadvangeous count. I know Nick likes to see some pitches before he hacks, but I think he needs to be a bit less predictable in his pattern, sort of like what BRob has been able to do. BRob is a patient hitter, but he goes up there hacking often enough to keep pitchers honest on strike one.

I agree with this, especially the predictability part. Most of the first pitch strikes are on the outside corner though, IMO. He used to hit these into LF to keep pitchers honest. Now he mostly looks at them. Seems like he's waiting for something he can hit out. Somebodys whispering "chicks dig the long ball" into his ear IMO. :scratchchinhmm:

[Fla_O'sfan]

Markakis needs a big bat hitting behind him. If that "big bat" is Garrett Atkins, then expect Nick's downturn to continue.

[RShack]

He put the first pitch in play about 10% of the time.

I have no idea how often he swung but didn't put it in play. How would you guess about that?

If he swung twice as much as he put it in play (fouls, misses, whatever), then that would be 20% of his AB's.

[KAZ97]

I have an observation that is difficult to quantify with numbers. I believe Nick has become somewhat predictable at the plate, and the pitchers took advantage of that in 2009. For instance, Nick will almost never swing at a first pitch, even one right down the middle. Pitchers have figured this out and are throwing him a ton of first pitch strikes. The result is he bats from behind in the count quite often. I got frustrated at times last year watching Nick pass up a fastball down the middle on strike one, and then swinging at a much tougher pitch to hit in a disadvangeous count. I know Nick likes to see some pitches before he hacks, but I think he needs to be a bit less predictable in his pattern, sort of like what BRob has been able to do. BRob is a patient hitter, but he goes up there hacking often enough to keep pitchers honest on strike one.

The number of times Nick has put the ball in play on the first pitch, and his batting average when he does...

	at bats		AVG2006	83		0.4002007	85		0.3912008	89		0.4092009	72		0.271

Yes, he seems to be swinging at the first pitch less. No, it doesn't appear pitchers are grooving the first pitch.

[Mackus]

The number of times Nick has put the ball in play on the first pitch, and his batting average when he does...

	at bats		AVG2006	83		0.4002007	85		0.3912008	89		0.4092009	72		0.271

Yes, he seems to be swinging at the first pitch less. No, it doesn't appear pitchers are grooving the first pitch.

One of those numbers obviously stands way out. Maybe that was the big difference, just that he, for whatever reason - bad luck, chance, poor performance - just wasn't hitting the ball as well when he put swung at the first pitch last season.

I'd expect his AVG on first pitch to be closer to that .400 level in 2010 than the sub-.300 level it was last season. That seems like a pretty obvious outlier.

[Lucky Jim]

The number of times Nick has put the ball in play on the first pitch, and his batting average when he does...

	at bats		AVG2006	83		0.4002007	85		0.3912008	89		0.4092009	72		0.271

Yes, he seems to be swinging at the first pitch less. No, it doesn't appear pitchers are grooving the first pitch.

Because his average is lower? I'm not sure that's borne out by those numbers. Not in any stable way. All that tells us is that he was less effective swinging on first pitches. Nothing about pitch selection.