Sports Illustrated: Orioles Plan Flawed

[BaltimoreTerp]

First of all thank you...

No I have no way of proving that MacPhail was thinking those things, however why would you bring them in if you did not think they would help us contend.

Maybe, he wants to see what Snyder can do at 1B, which I totally understand, then why even waste your time with Atkins? Why not just give Hughes and Aubrey a shot until you think that Snyder is ready or needs to be thrown at the wall to see if he can stick.

Also, why even add a closer like Gonzalez when you will lose a second round pick on a guy who has only had one truly dominant season as a closer and blew seven saves last year? Why not just let someone rise up and earn that spot throughout the season?

Maybe MacPhail was just trying to make it look like he was trying to compete? Again, I do not know the answer to this, all I can do is guess. I am not a MacPhail hater, I just question some of his decisions from this past off-season, especially if they were made with the intention of truly helping us to compete.

I remember at the end of last season being very very optimistic about this year but as the off-season wore on I realized that this year would most likely be another rebuilding year (which I was fine with). I just feel like it was unnecessary to come out and say that this year would be more about wins and losses, when it is really more about figuring out the rotation of the future and what we have at 1B and 3B for the future. I also know that MacPhail cannot say that so maybe he was just experimenting, and next year we will see him make some significant signings/trades to augment this roster.

Who says we were trying to contend? Seriously contend, not just win more games, which those guys were supposed to (and still could) help this team do.

[Great 2BA FL Gator]

So when is Phase III or is it Phase IX when we'll finally compete?

I guess it goes like this:

Phase II - Wins and losses sort of matter, but we are still rebuilding.

Phase III - Almost done rebuilding, probably should start winning some games.

Phase IV - Rebuilding might be done, but maybe not, still need to win games though.

Phase V - Ok I think rebuilding is done, yeah it's done. Now we really need to win games.

Phase VI - We thought it was done, but we had a little bit to go, but it will be done this year. Winning still matters.

Phase VII - OK, we're done rebuilding, for sure, honest. Time to go out and and win as many games as we can.

Phase VIII- Whoops, we missed something, but I think we got it now. Let's win some games.

Phase IX - Ok, we mean it now. Rebuilding is over. We'd better win some games...

You could make up all that crap, or you could say it is a three phase process like MacPhail has said. Phase I is gathering the talent. Phase II is when you have the core you want to move forward with, and you let it learn and grow over time while filling other needs. Phase III is competition/contention where the team is essentially in place, and players are no longer gaining experience or considered prospects. Phase III to me is most likely 2012, especially when looking at our pitching staff.

[H0smash]

Also, in defense of our current team...

If you look at a few teams:

The 1990-1991 Atlanta Braves

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/1990.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/1991.shtml

The 2005-2007 Colorado Rockies

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/COL/2005.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/COL/2006.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/COL/2007.shtml

The 1991-1995 Cleveland Indians

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/1991.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/1992.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/1993.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/1994.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/1995.shtml

The 2007-2008 Tampa Bay Rays

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TBD/2007.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TBR/2008.shtml

The MAJOR similarity between each of these teams is that they lost the World Series in the last year I show. Another similarity is that they all had a really bad year with some of their core, then two teams: the Indians and Rockies make gradual improvements until they breakout and get to the World Series, the other two: the Braves and Rays broke out the year after the terrible year and got to the World Series.

I know I would be extremely happy if the O's could get to the World Series within the next 2-3 years, which will really depend on the trades/FA signings MacPhail makes and whether our young core reaches or at least gets close to its potential. Another thing I noticed when looking at the teams above was that the year they got to the W.S. they had a nice addition(s), either from the outside or within that helped get them to the next level.

[H0smash]

Who says we were trying to contend? Seriously contend, not just win more games, which those guys were supposed to (and still could) help this team do.

I know, I was trying to say that IF he was trying to contend, which I don't think was truly possible this year and therefore he was not, then we should have made some better signings. I am starting to feel like this year is partially about getting back to winning and partially about finding out what we have and finding out where we need to improve.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I know, I was trying to say that IF he was trying to contend, which I don't think was truly possible this year and therefore he was not, then we should have made some better signings. I am starting to feel like this year is partially about getting back to winning and partially about finding out what we have and finding out where we need to improve.

I agree.

This is basically what he knew:

1) We have first base and third base prospects starting the year in AAA after having mostly encouraging seasons last season. Without many attractive options available, the plan is to sign a veteran who is starting his downward slide but could have enough in the tank to be productive. Also, they see a guy who put up big numbers in previous seasons, and decided to give him a try to see if he can find his previous stroke. If both do well, they can be traded later in the season for value and those prospects can be brought up. If one or both stink, they can be released and those prospects can be brought up.

2) We needed bullpen help. There was a guy available who had past success as a closer, and likely could have value as a lefty reliever at worst, and therefore be another potential trade chip in the future.

(Any argument against Gonzalez being signed based on his start to the season is complete hindsight given his injured status, apparently going back to the spring. Expense and timing and even reasoning based on past performance can be argued, but not 2010.)

That's the reason you sign those guys. I personally did not agree with Atkins at the time, but the other two were and are plenty defensible. Even as much as I hate Mike Gonzalez's guts right now

[JTrea81]

You could make up all that crap, or you could say it is a three phase process like MacPhail has said. Phase I is gathering the talent. Phase II is when you have the core you want to move forward with, and you let it learn and grow over time while filling other needs. Phase III is competition/contention where the team is essentially in place, and players are no longer gaining experience or considered prospects. Phase III to me is most likely 2012, especially when looking at our pitching staff.

When did he say three phases? Got a link?

[Great 2BA FL Gator]

When did he say three phases? Got a link?

You are right, I actually am mistaken. I thought he mentioned a three phase process, but that was just me reading into things.

It does make sense that you don't go directly from phase I (a blow it up/find young talent to build on) to competition right away, I think we agree on this.

I believe 3 phases makes intuitive sense. If phase 2 is show "meaningful improvement in the standings" such as 75-80 wins, then the next step has to be contention, does it not?

Regardless, I am not ready to say the rebuilding is close to a failure yet. Too early in the season, too many important guys still gaining experience and even too many potential rotation worthy pitchers still in the Minors (Tillman/Arietta/Britton).

^^ This is where I feel like we differ in opinion and that's fine. I want to be patient with our prospects and see how they pan out and improve that way. You want to make a trade of a few of our prospects for where you feel the team could improve.

[wildcard]

He should have had better options. The fact he did not get better options is on him.

Seriously, when will the excuses end? Why do people keep defending him?

The makeup of this roster is poor and that is solely his fault.

Wiggy hit 2 homers tonight to give him 8 on the season. Hughes had 2 hits and he is hitting over .300. Looks like two pretty good options to me. Twelve runs tonight.

Would you like to restate those comments?

[JTrea81]

Wiggy hit 2 homers tonight to give him 8 on the season. Hughes had 2 hits and he is hitting over .300. Looks like two pretty good options to me. Twelve runs tonight.

Would you like to restate those comments?

Let's see how they do over the next month or so. One game isn't enough...

Hughes may be hitting for average but not for power.

Wigginton has been a pleasant surprise thus far.

[Great 2BA FL Gator]

Wiggy hit 2 homers tonight to give him 8 on the season. Hughes had 2 hits and he is hitting over .300. Looks like two pretty good options to me. Twelve runs tonight.

Would you like to restate those comments?

And honestly, what FA 3B has been better than Miggy thus far? 1B was slim pickings and Wiggy could end up solving that problem once Brob comes back.

And like you said, Hughes has looked decent. The only way we really could have done better at the CI spots and SS was to trade some of our pitching. And I for one think it is too early (as we haven't found even 3 young guys that have stuck just yet in the rotation) for us to be trading pitching.

[wildcard]

Let's see how they do over the next month or so. One game isn't enough...

Hughes may be hitting for average but not for power.

Wigginton has been a pleasant surprise thus far.

Does that mean you are going to stop complaining about MacPhail for a month while we see how this turns out?

[Guest rochester]

There is no such thing as a good plan if it is not executed it properly.

[SilentJames]

There is no such thing as a good plan if it is not executed it properly.

Yeah, but some really good plans might look like a complete mess midway through.

[JTrea81]

Does that mean you are going to stop complaining about MacPhail for a month while we see how this turns out?

Well we've won a couple of games, but there has been such a hole dug that didn't neccessarily need to be so. We still need to win 12 games in a row to get back to .500.

Imagine if we had a better offense to begin the season...

Given the pitching we got, this team would have actually had a shot at a winning season.

But instead we had to waste a whole month waiting for the younger hitters to adjust, and hopefully they have, but now the best we can hope for is around 75 wins if that...

[H0smash]

At this point, I find it difficult to call this plan a mess or to say anything with confidence about this plan being a failure. I think at the end of this season we should have a good idea of where we stand, then we can decide how we need to augment this roster to enhance the plan in order for the O's to compete again. The most important questions that will hopefully get some type of answer include:

Are David Hernandez and/or Brad Bergesen legitimate starting pitchers or is their future in the Bullpen? (Same for Tillman and Arrieta)

Can Brandon Snyder and/or Josh Bell stick at 1B and 3B (most importantly Snyder, since there is a larger 1B FA crop).

What bullpen pitchers should we keep around for next year? Berken? Albers? JJ? Hendrickson? Meredith? Can Simon continue to pitch well out of the bullpen? Can Gonzalez return to form? Can Mickolio ever command his pitches?

There are probably some other questions that will be answered/somewhat answered this season but those are the main questions I can think of off the top of my head. I know we won't get full answers to all those questions, but we need some insight toward those things this year in order for MacPhail to have an idea of what he needs to do next offseason. I also do not think that we will be able to call the plan a fail after this year unless Bell and Snyder fall on their faces; DH and BB prove they don't belong in the majors; something bad happens with Matusz, Arrieta, or Tillman; and Wieters/Jones underperform the entire year.