Buck's Worst Move

[Ommaculate]

Yes I had to make a thread because I'm getting emotional! I got a tear running down my cheek right now!

Besides, I think Buck had a soft spot for Izturis for getting that game winning hit.

[BRob51]

Letting Izturis bat was certainly terrible, but to me, the worst decision of that inning was the sacrifice bunt.

I'm really surprised how many people were OK with the bunt. To me, it's an indefensible decision.

The O's were down by two runs. They had only three outs left to work with. You absolutely cannot give up one of those outs in that situation. The out is much more valuable in that situation than advancing the baserunners.

The stats bear out that when you bunt, you're slightly more likely to score one run-- but less likely to score multiple runs. If the O's had been down by one run, bunting would be a defensible move. But down by two...no way.

Then you add in the fact that the two worst hitters in the lineup were up next, and the bunt there just makes no sense. The O's would've been much better served by letting Reimold bat for himself with two on and none out.

Against Papelbon, with Reimold, Izzy, and Bell due up, I think it's the right call. Papelbon gets some GBs, with Reimold not being a speedster and Izzy frequently tapping the ball, I bunt. Maybe we should have tried a double-steal (ballsy, I know, but what have we got to lose?). Also, do you think the chances of Izzy or Bell getting one single are worse than the chances of Reimold, Izzy, and Bell getting multiple hits or 1 XBH without GIDP? I'm not 100% sure, but I'm leaning towards the first option.

[BaltimoreTerp]

More like, "How soon we forget - Izturis had one good hit but has sucked at the plate all year"

[Ommaculate]

More like, "How soon we forget - Izturis had one good hit but has sucked at the plate all year"

Yeah but that one hit was important to Buck, that's why he left him in.

[BRob51]

Before I get killed for the double steal, let me explain. IF in playing for the bunt, it didn't look to me like Papelbon was paying any attention to Pie, if Reimold stays in we have a RH hitter in the way of V-Mart, and we're playing the worst CS team in the majors. If Patterson/Reimold shows bunt and pulls it back, I think we could have pulled it off.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Yeah but that one hit was important to Buck, that's why he left him in.

Well then Buck is a lot dumber than we thought, and we should be scared to death about the path this team is on.

[Ommaculate]

Well then Buck is a lot dumber than we thought, and we should be scared to death about the path this team is on.

So baseball should have no emotions and should just rely on stats? Then maybe they should just replace the umps with robots. Besides, whoever we had on the bench would have struck out as well. Izturiz is the veteran, he has faced Papsmear before, and he came through last time.

[Steve I]

Once Buck committed to the sacrifice bunt, it kind of puts an onus on him to pitch hit for a light weight hitter. Even if the guy came through once before, the odds were just terrible. Has to be a gut play. Had to. Just no way to justify it any other way.

[BRob51]

I think it is a really interesting idea. I really do. PH Patterson. Square him around and take off. If the 3B comes in at all, which I think he would in that situation, you steal the bases with ease. Then he could drag bunt to get the run in and the guy to third with one out.

It may have even been more effective with Reimold left in, he being RH and CPatt always bunts down the 1B line. Then again, if CPatt is in, the IF knows he's going to bunt.

[BaltimoreTerp]

So baseball should have no emotions and should just rely on stats? Then maybe they should just replace the umps with robots. Besides, whoever we had on the bench would have struck out as well. Izturiz is the veteran, he has faced Papsmear before, and he came through last time.

Wow. Simply wow.

[PaulFolk]

Against Papelbon, with Reimold, Izzy, and Bell due up, I think it's the right call. Papelbon gets some GBs, with Reimold not being a speedster and Izzy frequently tapping the ball, I bunt. Maybe we should have tried a double-steal (ballsy, I know, but what have we got to lose?). Also, do you think the chances of Izzy or Bell getting one single are worse than the chances of Reimold, Izzy, and Bell getting multiple hits or 1 XBH without GIDP? I'm not 100% sure, but I'm leaning towards the first option.

As for the exact odds of getting one hit or getting multiple hits, I don't know the answer to that. But to me, Reimold is the best of those three hitters. I know his numbers aren't good, but I have much more confidence in him than in Izturis or Bell. I don't like any plan that involves taking the bat out of Reimold's hands while keeping it in Bell's and (especially) Izturis's.

I actually like your double-steal idea (especially if they were able to draw the 3B off the bag like vatech suggested). Victor Martinez has been pretty terrible at throwing out runners, if I'm not mistaken. I think they could've pulled it off. Then you've got three chances to get the tying run in from second, and you keep the bat in Reimold's hands.

[SrMeowMeow]

So baseball should have no emotions and should just rely on stats? Then maybe they should just replace the umps with robots. Besides, whoever we had on the bench would have struck out as well. Izturiz is the veteran, he has faced Papsmear before, and he came through last time.

Bluh? Izturis is a terrible hitter. If you want to get all emotional and pretend he's a great hitter, be my guest. It won't change anything.

[BRob51]

As for the exact odds of getting one hit or getting multiple hits, I don't know the answer to that. But to me, Reimold is the best of those three hitters. I know his numbers aren't good, but I have much more confidence in him than in Izturis or Bell. I don't like any plan that involves taking the bat out of Reimold's hands while keeping it in Bell's and (especially) Izturis's.

I actually like your double-steal idea (especially if they were able to draw the 3B off the bag like vatech suggested). Victor Martinez has been pretty terrible at throwing out runners, if I'm not mistaken. I think they could've pulled it off. Then you've got three chances to get the tying run in from second, and you keep the bat in Reimold's hands.

Haha, yeah I didn't really expect a percentage, though I realize that's how I worded the question, my bad

If you do get the double steal, and Reimold can just make a productive out (SF, RBI ground out), you can still pinch bunt Patterson for Cesar. There's a lot of 'if' in this conversation, but I think it may have been the best option.

[Ommaculate]

Bluh? Izturis is a terrible hitter. If you want to get all emotional and pretend he's a great hitter, be my guest. It won't change anything.

I can't stand Izturis just like you but the man came through with the game on the line a couple weeks ago when Buck took over. So how can you blame Buck for giving the man a chance when the exact same situation presented itself?

[SrMeowMeow]

I can't stand Izturis just like you but the man came through with the game on the line a couple weeks ago when Buck took over. So how can you blame Buck for giving the man a chance when the exact same situation presented itself?

I wouldn't say I "can't stand" him, but he's a terrible hitter. Just because he came through improbably once doesn't mean it's a good idea to try it again - in fact, it was a bad idea. Izturis will make an out something like 70% of the time, and, as usually is the case, the probable thing happened.