O's not offering Koji arbitration

[e16bball]

Bottom line is, you're comfortable paying at least 7 million for an injury-prone 35 year old closer on a losing team. AM is not. Glad he's in charge.

No. I'm comfortable paying at most $7M. Because that's the absolute max Koji could possibly submit at arbitration and have a chance at winning.

The problem is that you, like MacPhail, are consumed with the possibility of the worst-case scenario coming to pass. All you've talked about is "what happens if we get 'stuck' paying Koji $7M?" But a lot of things need to go wrong for that to happen.

1. Koji needs to accept arbitration. If he doesn't, you either re-sign him or take the pick.

2. After accepting arbitration, Koji needs to refuse all reasonable contract offers pre-hearing. If he accepts a reasonable offer, you have him signed for much less than $7M.

3. After Koji rejects all contract offers, there would have to be NO teams willing to trade for his rights. If some team deals for him (as TB did with Soriano), you don't pay him a dime.

4. After you fail to trade him, you have to lose at arbitration. Which Smouse has never done. If you win at arbitration, you have him for something like $5.5M.

Yes, if ALL those options go as poorly as possible, we'd be "stuck" (for one year) with a guy who had the 2nd-best FIP in the AL among guys with 40+ innings. Oh calamity!

[Sports Guy]

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/content/rays-offer-arbitration-all-wheeler-and-pena

Tampa offered arbitration to seven of their nine FAs and it appears that they had some kind of an agreement with Hawpe to not accept. So far, we have heard Vazquez and Hawpe with these agreements..Funny how other teams can do this but not us.

So, the DRays could have as many as 12 picks in the top 90 or so.

Now, will all of those players decline arbitration? Who knows..But they already have the Benoit pick..Soriano and CC are going to go elsewhere and they are almost guaranteed that they will get at least one first round pick there and 2 comp picks..Whether the other pick is a first rounder or a second rounder is tbd. So, that is 7 picks they are already guaranteed(5 from those 3 and their own 2 pick) in the first 2 rounds. They are very likely to end up with at least one more pick and probably more than that.

This is an incredibly deep draft..they already have a good farm system, a great scouting dept and very good young players at the ML level.

In other words, the Orioles are way behind Tampa.

Meanwhile, we can't even offer arbitration to our 2 players. Unreal.

[Johnny]

Did you think the Mike Gonzalez contract was a good one?

I was "meh" on it at the time. Then I called him "Cobra Commander" for a good part of the season for his almost unparalleled ability to yank defeat from the jaws of victory.

I see where you could be going with this. Perhaps AM is learning not to give loads of money to injury prone pitchers? Smarter. Wiser.

[Sports Guy]

I was "meh" on it at the time. Then I called him "Cobra Commander" for a good part of the season for his almost unparalleled ability to yank defeat from the jaws of victory.

I see where you could be going with this. Perhaps AM is learning not to give loads of money to injury prone pitchers? Smarter. Wiser.

This has nothing to do with AM.

You are the one commending him for this.

My question is simple..Did you feel the Gonzo contract was a good one when he signed it?

[McNulty]

I'm really shocked anyone is trying to defend this.

[Sports Guy]

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/content/rays-offer-arbitration-all-wheeler-and-pena

Tampa offered arbitration to seven of their nine FAs and it appears that they had some kind of an agreement with Hawpe to not accept. So far, we have heard Vazquez and Hawpe with these agreements..Funny how other teams can do this but not us.

So, the DRays could have as many as 12 picks in the top 90 or so.

Now, will all of those players decline arbitration? Who knows..But they already have the Benoit pick..Soriano and CC are going to go elsewhere and they are almost guaranteed that they will get at least one first round pick there and 2 comp picks..Whether the other pick is a first rounder or a second rounder is tbd. So, that is 7 picks they are already guaranteed(5 from those 3 and their own 2 pick) in the first 2 rounds. They are very likely to end up with at least one more pick and probably more than that.

This is an incredibly deep draft..they already have a good farm system, a great scouting dept and very good young players at the ML level.

In other words, the Orioles are way behind Tampa.

Meanwhile, we can't even offer arbitration to our 2 players. Unreal.

Just to discuss the rest of the division real quick:

Boston: They will get 2 picks for Vmart and 2 for Beltre if he leaves. They also offered arbitration to Felipe Lopez..this was talked about on here. See what happens there.

Yanks: Only Vazquez..They will get a pick for him.

Toronto: They already have one from John Buck..Its not know who else they will offer arb at this time, although you know Olivo will be offered as well.

[Stotle]

I'm really shocked anyone is trying to defend this.

I'm not...

[clapdiddy]

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/content/rays-offer-arbitration-all-wheeler-and-pena

Tampa offered arbitration to seven of their nine FAs and it appears that they had some kind of an agreement with Hawpe to not accept. So far, we have heard Vazquez and Hawpe with these agreements..Funny how other teams can do this but not us.

So, the DRays could have as many as 12 picks in the top 90 or so.

Now, will all of those players decline arbitration? Who knows..But they already have the Benoit pick..Soriano and CC are going to go elsewhere and they are almost guaranteed that they will get at least one first round pick there and 2 comp picks..Whether the other pick is a first rounder or a second rounder is tbd. So, that is 7 picks they are already guaranteed(5 from those 3 and their own 2 pick) in the first 2 rounds. They are very likely to end up with at least one more pick and probably more than that.

This is an incredibly deep draft..they already have a good farm system, a great scouting dept and very good young players at the ML level.

In other words, the Orioles are way behind Tampa.

Meanwhile, we can't even offer arbitration to our 2 players. Unreal.

This ties in to exactly what I said earlier. Our GM is well behind all others in the AL East. And...I don't think he's even close.

[Sports Guy]

I'm really shocked anyone is trying to defend this.

Are you new here?

[Sports Guy]

This ties in to exactly what I said earlier. Our GM is well behind all others in the AL East. And...I don't think he's even close.

Its not just AM..PA is way behind too.

We are just doomed right now.

[Johnny]

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/content/rays-offer-arbitration-all-wheeler-and-pena

Tampa offered arbitration to seven of their nine FAs and it appears that they had some kind of an agreement with Hawpe to not accept. So far, we have heard Vazquez and Hawpe with these agreements..Funny how other teams can do this but not us.

So, the DRays could have as many as 12 picks in the top 90 or so.

Now, will all of those players decline arbitration? Who knows..But they already have the Benoit pick..Soriano and CC are going to go elsewhere and they are almost guaranteed that they will get at least one first round pick there and 2 comp picks..Whether the other pick is a first rounder or a second rounder is tbd. So, that is 7 picks they are already guaranteed(5 from those 3 and their own 2 pick) in the first 2 rounds. They are very likely to end up with at least one more pick and probably more than that.

This is an incredibly deep draft..they already have a good farm system, a great scouting dept and very good young players at the ML level.

In other words, the Orioles are way behind Tampa.

Meanwhile, we can't even offer arbitration to our 2 players. Unreal.

Great idea! We should take the $5 million we paid Koji, add it to the 2-3 million we paid Ohman and Hendrickson, add a couple more and make a run at Soriano! 3 years/$30 millionish range could land him.

[Johnny]

This has nothing to do with AM.

You are the one commending him for this.

My question is simple..Did you feel the Gonzo contract was a good one when he signed it?

and i answered your question. I was meh then and am Meh now. Neither good nor bad.

And I'm the same way here. Meh. I don't think arbitration was the best option because we'd be stuck with Koji at a high salary. There wouldnt be a draft pick because he would take the money IMO. I believe I've been fairly clear and will stop rehashing my argument.

However, there seems to be a lot of AM bashing for any reason around here. Some of it is deserved. Some of it isn't. This is a case where we free money and can pursue other, more reliable players and I think we have to weigh that against some mythic sandwich pick.

[Roll Tide]

This is why the rich get richer. The Rays could get as many as 5 comp picks why we get Zippo!

The Rays, tweets Marc Topkin, offered arbitration to Soriano, Balfour, Crawford, Randy Choate, Brad Hawpe and Chad Qualls, declining to offer to Dan Wheeler and Carlos Pena

[Stotle]

Just to discuss the rest of the division real quick:

Boston: They will get 2 picks for Vmart and 2 for Beltre if he leaves. They also offered arbitration to Felipe Lopez..this was talked about on here. See what happens there.

Yanks: Only Vazquez..They will get a pick for him.

Toronto: They already have one from John Buck..Its not know who else they will offer arb at this time, although you know Olivo will be offered as well.

It's all part of the same shortcoming on the amateur acquisition side. People give justifications for lagging behind internationally. People give justifications for targeting certain groups of draft overslotters over the "mainstream" tough signs. People give justifications for not offering arbitration.

Any of these issues can be rationalized on their own, but when you put everything together you realize that not only is BAL behind the rest of the division, they are not close to getting out in front in any area of amateur acquisition.

Time will tell if Toronto's pumping of money into scouting, international signing and the draft (including acquiring extra picks) will pay off. Maybe it ends up a lot of empty cash. But it is at least an attempt to gain some sort of competitive advantage.

BAL has convinced its hardcore fan base that building financial flexibility and a strong young core of pitching is the best way to compete. I agree with that. But what is the plan for transitioning to a competitive team? What is the plan for not only growing a young stable of arms but for replenishing the minor league system?

Some posters lamented that BAL can't afford to enter into discussions regarding trading for one of the best young talents in baseball (who is available, according to reports) because there isn't enough depth in the system. BAL hasn't spent on the ML team and has been trimming the fat throughout the organization for the past three years. Why is the system thin again? Because BAL doesn't do the little things, or the big things, when it comes to signing amateur talent.

Avoid high cost international signees. Avoid arbitration that MIGHT result in a year of poor "value". Avoid avoid avoid....

Apologies for the rant -- I accept that parts of my post may be an overreaction.

[Ridgway22]

I'm really shocked anyone is trying to defend this.

I am stunned. Of all the off-season decisions that seemed to be a no-brainer, this was it. All the guy did was look like Mario freakin' Rivera at the end of the season. Sign him or get a pick. Homer Simpson: Doh!

I want to believe there is a master plan, but frankly, the light is looking more like the same old train that has crushed me for the last 13 years and less like sunlight at the end.

This is like an abusive relationship I can't seem to get out of. I keep coming back for more. Where's my beverage......