Jump to content

Are the O's a third place finisher?


wildcard

Recommended Posts

I have not done a detailed projection yet but just looking at the comings and going of the Jays, Rays and O's the O's look like 3rd place may be in reach. I was saying that it was too early to project before and got a lot of negative comments for saying it but when Wells, Manny, Damon, and Vlad are yet to find a home or be traded it was a little too early. Vlad it still out there and he can still make an impact but for this snap shoot I think the O's have moved up.

Here is what I see for now:

Toronto

Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has spent the off season crafting financial flexibility for for the Jays future and he has succeeded but in the process he has hurt the Jay's ability to compete in 2011. The 2010 Jays won and lost off the home runs and the pitching staff. Their offense was fairly one dimensional. Now 79 homers are gone and replaced by 46 from incoming players. If you are the opposing manager do you pitch to Jose Bautista this year or do you pitch to DH/1B Napoli? I know what I would do. Bautista's at bats get minimized just like Markakis' did this past year. This will cut the Jays home run production even farther.

The Jays have several highly touted rookies that will make an impact this year. But consider that like Matusz who had a learn curve to overcome, so will Arencibia, who has start 7 games in the majors, and Drabek who has 3 major league starts.

Gaston retired and was replaced by rookie John Farrell. This is another major change the Jays will have this season. The O's fans are all too familar with the difference between a rookie manager and a good veteran one.

Goings

Wells, Marcum, Overbay, Buck, Lewis, Downs, Gregg,

Comings

Napoli, Rivera, Davis, Dotel, Rauch (Drabek and Arencibia)

Tampa Bay

The Rays have had a mass exodus of free agents and a big trade that have positioned them for the future with 10 draft choices in the first 60 draftees but they too have hurt their 2011 projections. Some may think that the signing of Manny and Johnny Damon has held them in the 3rd position in the division. I am not too sure. Manny doesn't like to DH and when asked to over the last several seasons has not done it well. That means for Maddon to get the 900 OPS production he wants, Manny probably has to play defense in left. That will be an adventure for the Rays.

Damon too hits much better when playing left field. His main contribution to the offense in getting on base and scoring at this point and he doesn't do that nearing as well as a DH. But never the less someone has to DH.

Friedman has said in a recent interview that rebuilding a bullpen over one off season is a daunting task. Several in the new pen will likely be rookies. That will be a big change from last year.

Goings

Crawford, Pena, Bartlett, Garza, Soriano, Benoit, Balfour, Qualls, Wheeler, Choates, Corimer

Comings

M Ramirez, Damon, Farnsworth, Peralta, Archer, Ramos, Russell

Overall the trades of Wells, Marcum and Garza do not make it seem like either the Rays or Jays are focused on contending in 2011. They are more focused on the future.

Baltimore

A full season of Buck as manager is a good foundation.

Major areas on need have been filled. We all know them, so I will not repeat them.

Goings

Wigginton, DH, Patterson, Hendrickson, Lugo, Albers

Comings

Lee, Reynolds, Hardy, Gregg, (Britton)

Summary

Overall I think the O's have filled their holes with quality players and are now ready to win. They will do better inside the division not only because of the O's improvement but also because the Rays and Jays are not as strong.

The Jays may have fallen back to their 75 win pace of 2009. The Rays will miss the experiences and execution of the many of their veterans. Their young players will have their learning curves. Whoever DHs for the Rays needs an attitude and execute change that is a question mark. Left field defense will be a challenge until the late innings. The pen is noticably weaker. The Rays does not look like a 90 win team as they stand today. How much less is a question.

I will run some numbers over the next month and be a little more defined in the analysis, but so far its looking better for the O's then it has in a long time. It looks like a winning season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 95
  • Created
  • Last Reply
I have not done a detailed projection yet but just looking at the comings and going of the Jays, Rays and O's the O's look like 3rd place may be in reach. I was saying that it was too early to project before and got a lot of negative comments for saying it but when Wells, Manny, Damon, and Vlad are yet to find a home or be traded it was a little too early. Vlad it still out there and he can still make an impact but for this snap shoot I think the O's have moved up.

Here is what I see for now:

Toronto

Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has spent the off season crafting financial flexibility for for the Jays future and he has succeeded but in the process he has hurt the Jay's ability to compete in 2011. The 2010 Jays won and lost off the home runs and the pitching staff. Their offense was fairly one dimensional. Now 79 homers are gone and replaced by 46 from incoming players. If you are the opposing manager do you pitch to Jose Bautista this year or do you pitch to DH/1B Napoli? I know what I would do. Bautista's at bats get minimized just like Markakis' did this past year. This will cut the Jays home run production even farther.

The Jays have several highly touted rookies that will make an impact this year. But consider that like Matusz who had a learn curve to overcome, so will Arencibia, who has start 7 games in the majors, and Drabek who has 3 major league starts.

Gaston retired and was replaced by rookie John Farrell. This is another major change the Jays will have this season. The O's fans are all too familar with the difference between a rookie manager and a good veteran one.

Goings

Wells, Marcum, Overbay, Buck, Lewis, Downs, Gregg,

Comings

Napoli, Rivera, Davis, Dotel, Rauch (Drabek and Arencibia)

Tampa Bay

The Rays have had a mass exodus of free agents and a big trade that have positioned them for the future with 10 draft choices in the first 60 draftees but they too have hurt their 2011 projections. Some may think that the signing of Manny and Johnny Damon has held them in the 3rd position in the division. I am not too sure. Manny doesn't like to DH and when asked to over the last several seasons has not done it well. That means for Maddon to get the 900 OPS production he wants, Manny probably has to play defense in left. That will be an adventure for the Rays.

Damon too hits much better when playing left field. His main contribution to the offense in getting on base and scoring at this point and he doesn't do that nearing as well as a DH. But never the less someone has to DH.

Friedman has said in a recent interview that rebuilding a bullpen over one off season is a daunting task. Several in the new pen will likely be rookies. That will be a big change from last year.

Goings

Crawford, Pena, Bartlett, Garza, Soriano, Benoit, Balfour, Qualls, Wheeler, Choates, Corimer

Comings

M Ramirez, Damon, Farnsworth, Peralta, Archer, Ramos, Russell

Overall the trades of Wells, Marcum and Garza do not make it seem like either the Rays or Jays are focused on contending in 2011. They are more focused on the future.

Baltimore

A full season of Buck as manager is a good foundation.

Major areas on need have been filled. We all know them, so I will not repeat them.

Goings

Wigginton, DH, Patterson, Hendrickson, Lugo, Albers

Comings

Lee, Reynolds, Hardy, Gregg, (Britton)

Summary

Overall I think the O's have filled their holes with quality players and are now ready to win. They will do better inside the division not only because of the O's improvement but also because the Rays and Jays are not as strong.

The Jays may have fallen back to their 75 win pace of 2009. Thes Rays will miss the experiences and execution of the many of their veterans. Their young players will have their learning curves. Whoever DHs for the Rays needs an attitude and execute change that is a question mark. Left field defense will be a challenge until the late innings. The pen is noticably weaker. The Rays does not look like a 90 win team as they stand today. How much less is a question.

I will run some numbers over the next month and be a little more defined in the analysis, but so far its looking better for the O's then it has in a long time. It looks like a winning season.

I was a little worried about Tampa's offense, but Manny will help replace Pena. Damon will help them as well. I find it hard to invision a scenario where the Orioles leap Tampa in the standing's this year. I think we are underestimating the Rays.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was a little worried about Tampa's offense, but Manny will help replace Pena. Damon will help them as well. I find it hard to invision a scenario where the Orioles leap Tampa in the standing's this year. I think we are underestimating the Rays.

Who DHs for the Rays? How do they perform? Look at the stats. When I do I think there is a question how much Manny and Damon help. They help offensively when they play left but neither helps defensively.

Their reputations make it seem like they will help. The stats tell a different story when it is considered where they will play.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good post overall.

Third place is a reasonable expectation for this season. I don't see any reason why it can't happen.

Toronto and Tampa are both decent teams, but I think we can match up against them well, and if some things go right I wouldn't be at all surprised to finish ahead of them in the standings.

This is without even mentioning the Yankees, who have some significant holes. The Red Sox look great but I think they're going to be a little overrated heading into the season.

It's a tough division to predict. If someone predicted the Orioles to finish anywhere from 5th to 3rd, maybe even 2nd, I wouldn't put up much argument. In my opinion we're most likely set up for a 4th place finish, but I think we could finish 4th and still have a slightly above .500 record.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think Manny was a great addition for the Rays and along with Damon will help their offense remain at a similar level to last year. However, even though I highly doubt Manny will play much if any LF, the defense there will be worse and possibly by a lot depending on how much Jennings plays there and how good he is. Same with team speed and base-running.

Their BP is much more of a question mark than it was last year and I think it is a key to whether they win 90 plus games or if they fall to within reach of the O's.

I believe the O's have a good chance at winning 80-85 games, with a chance of more if more goes right then wrong, and they can still add Vlad or another solid bat and a decent pitcher or two.

So as of now, I would still project the Rays to be better, but the gap has closed considerably and I wouldn't be shocked if the O's did win more games.

I think the BJ's overachieved last year, so with the loss of Wells, Marcum, and a couple of good relievers, as well as the likely falling back to earth of Bautista, I expect them to win fewer games. They do have some good young talent though, so they have decent potential.

I think the O's will likely be better next year than the Jays, but it could easily go either way.

Lets also keep in mind that the O's improvements should directly lead to more losses for the other AL East teams.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The only way I can see us passing Tampa is if they have a season long BP meltdown.

Manny could sprint, dive and make a great catch on the same ball Crawford would trot over and catch like he was playing little league. If they play him in LF it will only be in emergency.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Who DHs for the Rays? How do they perform? Look at the stats. When I do I think there is a question how much Manny and Damon help. They help offensively when they play left but neither helps defensively.

Their reputations make it seem like they will help. The stats tell a different story when it is considered where they will play.

Clearly Manny and I would think he would be ok with it.

I'm also not sure where you are getting that Manny hasn't done well at DH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see the Jays taking a major step back. I'm having a hard time believing Batista will be as productive as he was last year. A lot of the Jays season rides on how well Lind and Hill do. If they rebound then the Jays will be a competitive team. If they do not, then they are looking at a 75 win season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If I were to place a bet, I would place a bet on the Orioles finishing 4th. I think 3rd or 5th is possible.

But that is just for 2011.

If I were placing a bet right now for where they finish in 2012, I would bet on 5th place.

Who do you have at 3rd and 5th?

There are plenty of variables going forward for the O's in 2012

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Who DHs for the Rays? How do they perform? Look at the stats. When I do I think there is a question how much Manny and Damon help. They help offensively when they play left but neither helps defensively.

Their reputations make it seem like they will help. The stats tell a different story when it is considered where they will play.

My thing is did the Orioles do enough to go from 66 to 85 wins and do I think the Rays lose enough to go 96 from to 84 wins. I do not think Baltimore wins more than 85 and I do not think the Rays lose more than 85. I think so much depends on our young pitching. I think we finish 4th this year, but third or fourth has the same result. We miss the playoffs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • Posts

    • His glove is definitely ready. That’s what people are saying and since that is what Mateo is bringing the table, it stands to reason that he can replace him. Either way, Mateo is definitely not “too important” to trade.
    • Yes, they do.  And clearly they've come to a differnt conclusion than you.  I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt; not random posters on the OH- no offense to random posters on the OH.  I'm a random poster on the OH.
    • That would require me to read your entire post and we both know I can only handle maybe two sentences at a time when it comes to your posts.  😉
    • No, acting like Ortiz is DEFINITELY ready is the only thing that is untrue.  This is a discussion that could be had but it isn't had in good faith.  There are posters who KNOW he's ready, when of course, you can't possibly know that.  But judging by historical and current norms, 120 ABS in AAA is nothing.
    • Yes, IF you have sufficient runs being scored by the rest of the team.  Unfortunately last year we had too many black holes in the lineup, and to this point we haven't done much to fix that this year.  Thus the additional black hole of Mateo is more evident.  Sure, a good offensive team can carry a all glove, no bat guy or two in the lineup, but we aren't currently constructed that way.  
    • So every time they advance a level they throw out all the old data? It's weird, as much as folks here talk up the front office it also seems like they sometimes underestimate them.  They should have a lot of data to draw from.
    • So?  We know the glove will play, and since that's pretty much all he'd be replacing, Mateos glove, then more time in AAA really isn't going to make a difference.  Now if you want to factor in team control and stuff like that, then that adds to the equation.  But to suggest that Ortiz needs more time in AAA to be able to adequately replace Mateo isn't really true.  Sure, his bat could likely use more time adjusting to AAA and then the majors, but since he's replacing a terrible bat in the lineup I'm not sure it's as large of a deal as folks are making it out to be.  It's not like we are bringing up a guy to replace Santander, or Mullins or Adley.  It's all glove, no bat Mateo and Ortiz seems very capable of doing so now, even with only 25 AAA games under his belt.  That's largely because of how bad Mateo is with the bat though. 
  • Popular Contributors

  • Popular Now

×
×
  • Create New...