BA ranks Machado as no. 14 prospect; Britton 28

[Stotle]

Your post is the first time I've heard it said that Machado has mediocre range at SS. If that's true, obviously that's an issue.

It would be helpful, though, if I had a better understanding of just how fast you have to be to be considered to have the speed "tool." For example, did Miguel Tejada have it? Hardy? Of today's starting shortstops, how many would you say have (or had, when they were 18) the speed tool? Here's a list sorted by stolen bases: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/ss/sort/stolenBases/order/true

4.2 or better home-to-1st from the right side.

[Stotle]

I hope you understand that my question in my last post wasn't really intended to make a rhetorical point about speed vs. range. I'm really trying to understand the terminology scouts and evaluators use when they say a player does or doesn't have a "tool." My basic understanding is that scouts rate "tools" on a scale of 20-80, with 50 being average. So, where on that scale do you have to be to be credited with having that "tool?" 55? 60? 70? And then beyond that, where would a typical young major league shortstop rank on that scale, for the speed "tool"? Where would you put Machado?

50 or better to "have the tool". Speed, about a 4.3 home-to-first from the right side

80 - 4.0

70 - 4.1

60 - 4.2

50 - 4.3

left side

80 - 3.9

70 - 4.0

60 - 4.1

50 - 4.2

[Arthur_Bryant]

50 or better to "have the tool". Speed, about a 4.3 home-to-first from the right side

80 - 4.0

70 - 4.1

60 - 4.2

50 - 4.3

left side

80 - 3.9

70 - 4.0

60 - 4.1

50 - 4.2

A question about mechanics and procedure.

How are the times obtained? I often see scouts with stopwatches, but hand timing to within 1/10th second is very difficult even for a very experienced operator.

And if you're going by crack of the bat, the distance from the observer to the plate can influence the time. (Hand timing crews at track meets start their watches at the first puff of smoke from the starter's pistol, not at the sound of the shot).

Apart from electronic timing, probably the most accurate and consistent way to time an event is to count frames of video--29.97 frames per second. But times obtained that way can't be directly compared to times obtained by hand, where the reaction delay is between .2 and .3 seconds even if you know what you are doing.

Just curious how all this is sorted out.

[Arthur_Bryant]

If this were true, Pie would have a much lower score than he does.

From the link I posted, which is an FAQ for the site:

The following list indicates the factors included in each scouting category:

Speed: stolen bases as compared to the number of times a player reached first base, not considering caught stealings.

[crissfan172]

I really don't understand why the expectations for Britton are so high. Well...let me clarify that. I don't understand why people think he's ready for the big leagues right now. His command is not very good yet, and he's been very inefficient with his pitches, struggling to go over 6 innings on a regular basis. I love his ceiling and think he can be a big part of our future, but I think he needs to fix these problems before he's ready to contribute at the ML level.

[Stotle]

A question about mechanics and procedure.

How are the times obtained? I often see scouts with stopwatches, but hand timing to within 1/10th second is very difficult even for a very experienced operator.

And if you're going by crack of the bat, the distance from the observer to the plate can influence the time. (Hand timing crews at track meets start their watches at the first puff of smoke from the starter's pistol, not at the sound of the shot).

Apart from electronic timing, probably the most accurate and consistent way to time an event is to count frames of video--29.97 frames per second. But times obtained that way can't be directly compared to times obtained by hand, where the reaction delay is between .2 and .3 seconds even if you know what you are doing.

Just curious how all this is sorted out.

You time to contact, so you aren't reacting to the "crack", you are timing the pitch to crossing home. You stop timing the player to the bag. So it is more anticipatory than based on reaction (notice I did not use "reactionary" -- thanks for the knowledge, RZ ).

By timing to the ball crossing home, you stay uniform with everything. You can add different timed events to compare (used more by coaches, but also useful in scouting). For example, Pitcher A is 1.22-1.35 to home from the stretch. Catcher B is generally 1.95-2.05 pop to second base. You know that runners generally have 3.17 - 3.4 seconds to steal second, assuming a solid jump.

[El Gordo]

From the link I posted, which is an FAQ for the site:

I read that, but how does Pie get a high number when he doesn't steal that many bases, as compared to Andrus for instance?

[Arthur_Bryant]

I read that, but how does Pie get a high number when he doesn't steal that many bases, as compared to Andrus for instance?

As far as I can tell, the number is a ranking based on a composite of how a player ranked against his peers in every league where he played. It's a little screwy (or more than a little) and probably not worth much consideration.

[El Gordo]

As far as I can tell, the number is a ranking based on a composite of how a player ranked against his peers in every league where he played. It's a little screwy (or more than a little) and probably not worth much consideration.

That doesn't explain it. Pie was never a good base stealer in the MiL and Andrus always was.

[Tony-OH]

I only saw Machado play SS in one game last year so take this for what it's worth. My initial impression was that he's a very smart player already when it comes to positioning himself, knowing where to go on cutoffs, and generally playing the position. He's got decent first step quickness, quick soft hands, and the arm to make any throw on the field. If there is one draw back to his game is that he didn't appear to have a lot of range and balls in which he has to go far (say up the middle) he seemed a bit slow a foot to get there.

The biggest concern I had after watching him and after seeing him up close was that he COULD grow out of the position. If his range is marginal now, that will hurt him as the game's speed increases and as he begins to fill out.

Cal Ripken and Derek Jeter were two large shortstops though and they were able to stick, so I'm not going to say he can't stick or that he's certainly going to need to move one day.

He has good athleticism and his baseball IQ seems very high, so he's bringing some things to the field that could help him stick at the position even if his chances of having plus range one day is not very good.

If he can give the Orioles average defensive range, his bat should make up for it and he should be a solid SS for years.

[Can_of_corn]

I really don't understand why the expectations for Britton are so high. Well...let me clarify that. I don't understand why people think he's ready for the big leagues right now. His command is not very good yet, and he's been very inefficient with his pitches, struggling to go over 6 innings on a regular basis. I love his ceiling and think he can be a big part of our future, but I think he needs to fix these problems before he's ready to contribute at the ML level.

I would not put a huge amount of weight toward IP in the minors. Britton, from what I understand, was not "struggling" when he was pulled from games. It is not the case that he could not go more then six innings, it is that the O's were pulling him on the basis of pitches and innings thrown. Would you have preferred Britton go 7 innings a start and been shut down early or go 6 and pitch the whole year?

I do agree that he needs to refine his command, I will say that about Arrieta, Tillman and BB as well.

I fully expect Britton to start the year in the minors, and for team control purposes I agree with it. I do think the O's would be in a better position to win now with him in the rotation then some of the guys they will leave camp with.

[Tony-OH]

I really don't understand why the expectations for Britton are so high. Well...let me clarify that. I don't understand why people think he's ready for the big leagues right now. His command is not very good yet, and he's been very inefficient with his pitches, struggling to go over 6 innings on a regular basis. I love his ceiling and think he can be a big part of our future, but I think he needs to fix these problems before he's ready to contribute at the ML level.

What makes you think his command is not very good yet? Last year in AAA he had a 2.43 K/BB ratio, walked 3.1 per 9 innings, better than his career 3.3, and struck 7.6 per nine innings (7.3 career). He's an absolute ground ball machine on top of it all. He never has been nor will he probably ever be a pinpoint control guy, but with his stuff, he doesn't have to be.

If he goes back down to the minors it's because guys like Tillman and Arrieta had good springs and no one got hurt. They may say it's to give him a few more innings and honestly, a few more AAA innings never really hurts, but it will be more about the success of the guys ahead of him than his own shortcomings.

As for the innings, the Orioles try to keep their young pitchers around 150 innings so those six inning stints are more about keeping his overall innings down than some high pitch count issues.

[RVAbird]

Yeah, there seems to be a difference of opinion on this one. Baseball America has Machado's defense rated as a 60. Hard to believe they have him as above average if his range is mediocre right now.

His defensive skills - hands, footwork, actions, - are above average. His lateral range is average. He's lanky now, and as his wide hips fill in his range will likely become below average.

[Stotle]

His defensive skills - hands, footwork, actions, - are above average. His lateral range is average. He's lanky now, and as his wide hips fill in his range will likely become below average.

I know there are evaluators that disagree with this, but I am not one of them. I think he can stick at short if he does everything else well enough to make up for the range limitations.

[El Gordo]

This guy had some pretty wide hips and was slow as molasses. What dummy made him plat SS for 15 years? It was obvious from the get go he wouldn't be very good at it.