BP: Wieters one of the Most Disappointing Prospects of All Time

[Sports Guy]

The guy has had one full major-league season. It's way too early to be calling him one of the most disappointing prospects of all time. Some players just don't figure it out immediately and then turn out to be great (Roy Halladay comes to mind).

There will always be exceptions...but most of the all time greats were very good from day 1.

[Can_of_corn]

What I don't get about the Posey/Weiters thing is this:

Last year we heard the excuse (a good bit of the time) "Well Matt is focusing on getting to know the pitchers, opposing hitters, calling a good game, etc., etc., so that's why his hitting isn't up to snuff."

If that's the case than how come Posey could still get to know opposing hitters/call good games/get to know his pitchers/etc. all while raking in the batters box.

Seems like the excuse doesn't really fly. And I don't want to hear about, "Well Buster is playing in the inferior NL."

Wieters is definitely ahead of Posey defensively and in setting targets for his pitchers to throw to. No way to define pitch calling however.

Posey was the 5th pick in the '08 draft and was ranked by BA as the #14 prospect in '09 and #7 in '10.

Wieters was the 5th pick in the '07 draft and was ranked by BA as the #12 prospect in '08 and #1 in '09.

There was less hype but Posey hardly came out of nowhere, I certainly wouldn't call it a lot less hype. As Orioles fans we got more wrapped up in the Wieters hype but minus being called "switch-hitting Jesus" they are much more similar than different.

There was talk of Tampa taking Posey #1 in the '08 draft.

[LookinUp]

This is a good post and one I do agree with.

My only issue is with this is that 2010 was his first full year and you are telling me that he was already caught up in the Orioles issues? I mean, what does that tell us about what is going on between the ears of Wieters that he would get so down so quickly?

However, this post is why I hate the idea that a good manager is only worth a few more wins than a bad manager. Buck could end up changing the entire mindset of this team and if he does that, there will be a much bigger difference than a few wins.

His conditioning is what it is. He had 2+ years to get in shape and did so only by losing weight, apparently, rather than by getting a lot stronger.

His other issues relate directly to coaching and adjusting when (not if) the ML learns your weaknesses.

So yes, I think his transition could have been particularly difficult and hindered by the larger situation.

Just a hypothesis though...

[Moose Milligan]

I think we're overlooking the fact that the BEST THING ABOUT THIS LIST is that Kotchman is the starting first baseman

[Frobby]

There are things about the Orioles that have been impossible not to notice over the last year. Like when Jim Palmer talked about their lack of work ethic. Like the inability to adjust in-game to a 87mph fastball guy who keeps throwing change ups. Like the horrible conditioning.

I don't know what was going on day to day, but I can't help but think that Matt Wieters is just another player caught up in the horrible organization that was the Baltimore Orioles.

I have a hard time believing that the hitter I saw last year ever put up the numbers he did in the minors. More likely, I think, is that he has some mechanical flaws that need to be addressed; that opposing teams have identified his weaknesses and he needs to adjust; and that his conditioning in general and strength in particular were sub par.

All we can do is hope that his problems were more about his environment than they were about his talent, and that Buck will address those problems with mechanics, adjustments and conditioning ASAP.

I believe, hon.

You are jumping to an unfair conclusion IMO. Wieters worked out at API two winters ago, and in Florida this winter. His pitchers attest that he spends hours looking at film before every game. Showalter has said he doesn't worry at all about Wieters living up to whatever his true potential is, because he has the "want to." To me this is a non-issue.

[Sports Guy]

One man's take: Wieters should worry less about contact/K's and let loose.

Nick's best year was when he K'ed the most IIRC.

100+ K's is not a bad thing if they come with a good OPS.

[LookinUp]

You are jumping to an unfair conclusion IMO. Wieters worked out at API two winters ago, and in Florida this winter. His pitchers attest that he spends hours looking at film before every game. Showalter has said he doesn't worry at all about Wieters living up to whatever his true potential is, because he has the "want to." To me this is a non-issue.

I never questioned his work ethic. That has always been laudable. I do wonder aloud whether he had the right guidance to help him acclimate well to the league.

It's just a hypothesis, and hopefully one that will start to get answered relatively quickly. The alternative is that he's just a guy who has a flawed swing that isn't going to get exposed until the majors. Sort of like what Stotle's saying about the one college hitter ranked very highly this year (forget his name).

[Moose Milligan]

There are things about the Orioles that have been impossible not to notice over the last year. Like when Jim Palmer talked about their lack of work ethic. Like the inability to adjust in-game to a 87mph fastball guy who keeps throwing change ups. Like the horrible conditioning.

I don't know what was going on day to day, but I can't help but think that Matt Wieters is just another player caught up in the horrible organization that was the Baltimore Orioles.

I have a hard time believing that the hitter I saw last year ever put up the numbers he did in the minors. More likely, I think, is that he has some mechanical flaws that need to be addressed; that opposing teams have identified his weaknesses and he needs to adjust; and that his conditioning in general and strength in particular were sub par.

All we can do is hope that his problems were more about his environment than they were about his talent, and that Buck will address those problems with mechanics, adjustments and conditioning ASAP.

I believe, hon.

This is a good post and one I do agree with.

My only issue is with this is that 2010 was his first full year and you are telling me that he was already caught up in the Orioles issues? I mean, what does that tell us about what is going on between the ears of Wieters that he would get so down so quickly?

However, this post is why I hate the idea that a good manager is only worth a few more wins than a bad manager. Buck could end up changing the entire mindset of this team and if he does that, there will be a much bigger difference than a few wins.

I kind of agree with that post, but at the same time it's really easy to point fingers and blame the Orioles for being bad as a cause of Wieters not living up to the lofty expectations delivered so far. Were the Orioles getting any positive credit for him ripping minor league pitching? Do the Orioles get any positive credit for two guys like Roberts and Markakis being scouted, drafted and producing at the big league level?

I'm not running to the defense of the Orioles, that's not my point...my point is that it's just easy to blame the Orioles for being bad no matter whatever the case might be. Matt Wieters killed minor league pitching on his way to Baltimore and all of a sudden he's not producing and it's the Orioles fault? Was Crowley THAT destructive? And was Crowley that destructive when Wieters heated up at the end of 2009?

Not really buying it...not 100%, anyway.

Could it be that Matt Wieters just isn't that good and the Orioles don't have anything to do with it? Could Wieters have flopped for a team like the Rangers or the Royals? We'll never know, but I just don't buy the excuse of blaming the franchise all day, every day.

[LookinUp]

I kind of agree with that post, but at the same time it's really easy to point fingers and blame the Orioles for being bad as a cause of Wieters not living up to the lofty expectations delivered so far. Were the Orioles getting any positive credit for him ripping minor league pitching? Do the Orioles get any positive credit for two guys like Roberts and Markakis being scouted, drafted and producing at the big league level?

I'm not running to the defense of the Orioles, that's not my point...my point is that it's just easy to blame the Orioles for being bad no matter whatever the case might be. Matt Wieters killed minor league pitching on his way to Baltimore and all of a sudden he's not producing and it's the Orioles fault? Was Crowley THAT destructive? And was Crowley that destructive when Wieters heated up at the end of 2009?

Not really buying it...not 100%, anyway.

Could it be that Matt Wieters just isn't that good and the Orioles don't have anything to do with it? Could Wieters have flopped for a team like the Rangers or the Royals? We'll never know, but I just don't buy the excuse of blaming the franchise all day, every day.

As a fan, do you want to be right or do you want me to be right?

In all seriousness, I watched this team under Trembley and they were terrible. Dropping pop-ups, base running...really anything they tried. That was partially about the talent, but supposedly talented guys like Jones, Wieters and Markakis (who regressed) also crapped the bed. It's hard to tell with Roberts because of his injury. Throw in the pretty sudden regression - or at least lack of progression - for guys like Snyder and Bell. Heck, even Izturis hit worse.

There are very few Luke Scotts, especially with the bat.

To be honest, I'm also skeptical of the theory, but it's quite possible, IMO.

[Moose Milligan]

As a fan, do you want to be right or do you want me to be right?

In all seriousness, I watched this team under Trembley and they were terrible. Dropping pop-ups, base running...really anything they tried. That was partially about the talent, but supposedly talented guys like Jones, Wieters and Markakis (who regressed) also crapped the bed. It's hard to tell with Roberts because of his injury. Throw in the pretty sudden regression - or at least lack of progression - for guys like Snyder and Bell. Heck, even Izturis hit worse.

There are very few Luke Scotts, especially with the bat.

To be honest, I'm also skeptical of the theory, but it's quite possible, IMO.

I want you to be right

Yeah, this is true...everyone had a crappy year last year.

[SerenityNow]

Hello everyone, new to the board here.

Reading through this thread I saw and have heard many times before about the concerns regarding Wieters bat speed. The question I have is, is his bat really slow or not? Is there some type of bat swing speed measurement like they have for golfers or are folks just "eyeballing" it?

[LookinUp]

I want you to be right

Yeah, this is true...everyone had a crappy year last year.

And a crappy finish the year before under Trembley. And that wasn't just talent, it was where we started seeing the total lack of effort and focus come into play. Heck, last ST was supposed to be about fixing that stuff.

Just saying...

[RVAbird]

Hello everyone, new to the board here.

Reading through this thread I saw and have heard many times before about the concerns regarding Wieters bat speed. The question I have is, is his bat really slow or not? Is there some type of bat swing speed measurement like they have for golfers or are folks just "eyeballing" it?

Mostly eyeballing it, but with advances in Hit f/x, we should be able to measure this objectively and accurately very soon.

[LookinUp]

Mostly eyeballing it, but with advances in Hit f/x, we should be able to measure this objectively and accurately very soon.

Yeah, it's slow but I also see way too many non-authoritative swings. It's like he slows the bat down when he's fooled to make contact, too often resulting in a very weak ground ball to second base.

[RVAbird]

Yeah, it's slow but I also see way too many non-authoritative swings. It's like he slows the bat down when he's fooled to make contact, too often resulting in a very weak ground ball to second base.

I agree with this, and it was the crux of Petti's argument in the link I posted.

I saw better and more consistent bat speed from Matt in the minors. He appeared to be hitting scared at times last year. It would explain the low BABIP and LD rate despite the increased contact rate.