Sign Guthrie

[Sports Guy]

Really? Thanks for that information, hey Milton Bradley is available.

You miss the point. Guthrie is everything I want in an Oriole. If we get blown away by an offer, then take it. But that goes for almost anyone on this team. In my Opinion we will not get for him what he brings to this team.

How do you define being blown away? What would it take for you to trade Guthrie?

[brianod]

Before we scoff at the good teammate, good citizen aspect, we should look at the Green Bay Packers. They openly draft with that aspect front and center. It seems to work for them. A players attitude in the dugout, his ability to suppress his ego, his ability to make those around him better, is significant. This isn't a fantasy team we are building, stats aren't everything. I agree with this post. Resign him. He's a great number 2 to break up the two young lefties.

[BROOK5]

I love Guthrie, I really do. But I'd probably test the trade market this July. We might be able to get a lot for him if he continues pitching well. He's a legit 2/3 and those guys don't go cheaply. Just don't trade him to a team in our division, if he's traded.

Now, if the market isn't that strong, I'd hold on to him.

Completely agree. We've managed to get Jones, Tillman and Josh Bell (via the George Sherrill trade) from Erik Bedard, who has yet to play a whole year in Seattle. We missed the opportunity to get Oswalt for Tejada when he was still useful, so why hold onto Guthrie when we're still a few years away from legitimate contention? I also think we ought to shop Scott for the same reasons, by the time Wieters, Arrieta, Matusz, Britton, Jones and Machado are developed and in their prime, Scott and Guthrie will of no use. May as well see if we can help repair our bullpen or acquire a legitimate 1B/3B prospect.

[isestrex]

I don't think he's perceived as valuable to other teams as much as he is here. In other words, his stock is pretty low.

I don't think the return on a trade would equal the value we're currently getting or expect to get in the next 3-5 years.

I say keep him.

[brianod]

Completely agree. We've managed to get Jones, Tillman and Josh Bell (via the George Sherrill trade) from Erik Bedard, who has yet to play a whole year in Seattle. We missed the opportunity to get Oswalt for Tejada when he was still useful, so why hold onto Guthrie when we're still a few years away from legitimate contention? I also think we ought to shop Scott for the same reasons, by the time Wieters, Arrieta, Matusz, Britton, Jones and Machado are developed and in their prime, Scott and Guthrie will of no use. May as well see if we can help repair our bullpen or acquire a legitimate 1B/3B prospect.

Tillman is throwing 87-89 and is currently a shaky 5th starter who will probably lose his spot. Josh Bell will probably never make it. Jones, of course, is a keeper. But, he's an average starter at this point and may never be anything more then solid. I'd rather keep our good players and develop, sign players to go around them then continue to rebuild. Rebuilding gets old after 13 years.

[foxfield]

Really? Thanks for that information, hey Milton Bradley is available.

You miss the point. Guthrie is everything I want in an Oriole. If we get blown away by an offer, then take it. But that goes for almost anyone on this team. In my Opinion we will not get for him what he brings to this team.

I agree with this point and I am not sure that I would not agree with SG. Trade him? Sure, I am fine with that move. But unless we are getting something really sweet, I think he is better off staying here until he leaves or resigning if he is reasonable.

[dorfmac]

This is the same reasoning we had for extending Brian Roberts, and I sure don't feel comfortable with that. It's fine and dandy to think someone is a great asset to the community and an all-around nice guy, but do you want to be paying 10+ mill a year for a declining player entering his mid-30s?

If you use BRob as an example, I'd say heck no.

[OFFNY]

I don't think Guthrie is perceived as valuable to other teams as much as he is here. In other words, his stock is pretty low.

I don't think the return on a trade would equal the value we're currently getting or expect to get in the next 3-5 years.

I say keep him.

And THAT is very key. I would love to take credit for it, but a couple of weeks back, you and several other posters pointed out a very significant difference between the Bedard situation several years ago, and the current situation with Guthrie. When we dealt Bedard, he was coming off of a season with shiny, glitzy numbers .......... He was 13-5 for a .722 winning percentage, and he struck out 221 batters, which was among the league leaders. Jeremy "Charlie Brown" Guthrie, on the other hand, while a very effective pitcher in his own right, doesn´t have those "jump out at you" numbers like Bedard did. In other words, we (Andy MacPhail and the front office) know that Guthrie is a damned good pitcher. But .......... even if other GM´s also view Guthrie for what he is beyond the numbers (particularly his won-loss record), they could use that perception to minimize his value in negotiations. Now ............. I have no empirical evidence of what exactly goes on in negotiations for trades behind closed doors, other than what I read about that the press releases. But ................ I suspect that the perception of Guthrie (mostly due to his horrible luck in run support since he has been here) certainly can be "played down" by shrewd general manager(s) that would like to get him for less than what he is actually worth. Red Auerbach was a master of that tactic, as he used it in many deals, including when he acquired Robert Parish and (what subsequently turned out to be) the draft pick used to get Kevin McHale for the # 1 overall draft pick, which the Warriors used to acquire the very highly prolific Joe Barry Carroll in 1980.

[dorfmac]

And THAT is very key. I would love to take credit for it, but a couple of weeks back, you and several other posters pointed out a very significant difference between the Bedard situation several years ago, and the current situation with Guthrie. When we dealt Bedard, he was coming off of a season with shiny, glitzy numbers .......... He was 13-5 for a .722 winning percentage, and he struck out 221batters, which was among the league leaders. Jeremy "Charlie Brown" Guthrie, on the other hand, while a very effective pitcher in his own right, doesn´t have those "jump out at you" numbers, like Bedard did. In other words, we (Andy MacPhail and the front office) know that Guthrie is a damned good pitcher. But .......... even if other GM´s also view Guthrie for what he is beyond the numbers (particularly his won-loss record), they could use that perception to minimize his value in negotiations. Now ............. I have no empirical evidence of what exactly goes on in negotiations for trades behind closed doors, other than what I read about that the press releases. But ............... I suspect that the perception of Guthrie (mostly due to his horrible luck in run support since he has been here) certainly can be "played down" by shrewd general manager(s) that would like to get him for less than what he is actually worth. Red Auerbach was a master of that tactic, as he used it in many deals, including when he acquired Robert Parish and (what subsequently turned out to be) the draft pick used to get Kevin McHale for the # 1 overall draft pick, which the Warriors used to acquire the very highly prolific Joe Barry Carroll in 1980.

IIRC, there were a few anonymously quoted GMs last season who commented that they had wished they traded for Guthrie before the deadline. Maybe I'm wrong, but some news to that effect definitely broke.

I think Guthrie would be judged fairly by other GMs. His numbers don't shout ACE but when you look at the division he's in, you quickly realize that he is an above-average pitcher. For an above-average pitcher, you should be able to pull 2 very good prospects.

[crowmst3k!]

If you can get a young power hitter, ala Justin Smoak or Hosmer upside because someone is desperate for pitching at the deadline..you do it.

[BROOK5]

Tillman is throwing 87-89 and is currently a shaky 5th starter who will probably lose his spot. Josh Bell will probably never make it. Jones, of course, is a keeper. But, he's an average starter at this point and may never be anything more then solid. I'd rather keep our good players and develop, sign players to go around them then continue to rebuild. Rebuilding gets old after 13 years.

Pretty much agree on your assessment, but it's important to note that Jones is currently more valuable than Bedard, so we still won on that trade. Tillman could become a legitimate 5th starter behind Arrieta, Britton & Matusz. If we could get a future everyday starter at 1B, 3B or LF in exchange for Guthrie or Scott, I'd be happy. Neither of them are worth a Jones level prospect, but how do they help us in the long run? For the first time in a long time we have a young core that could make some noise in the AL East. But then again, if Guthrie/Scott don't have high enough stock in the eyes of others, it's no use giving them away.

[MikeAD]

Really? Thanks for that information, hey Milton Bradley is available.

You miss the point. Guthrie is everything I want in an Oriole. If we get blown away by an offer, then take it. But that goes for almost anyone on this team. In my Opinion we will not get for him what he brings to this team.

Well thats great, and you have to hope that hes everything another team wants in their players too. There have been several times when we should have traded him. We have been able to get a lot out of him for not a whole lot of money and if you can swing a few players it will be well worth it.

I don't think anyone has suggested we dump him, but if you are getting a good package then trade him. You don't even need to be blown away, just need to get players that are coming back that are worth more than what we would pay him next year.

[TakebackOPACY]

I don't think Guthrie will be undervalued on the trade market. He's not Erik Bedard, though. If you can get a good enough deal, trade him. I'm not real interested in a long-term deal, but there's a good chance his salary will still be reasonable enough that we can offer him arbitration and either hold onto him or get compensation.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

Well thats great, and you have to hope that hes everything another team wants in their players too. There have been several times when we should have traded him. We have been able to get a lot out of him for not a whole lot of money and if you can swing a few players it will be well worth it.

I don't think anyone has suggested we dump him, but if you are getting a good package then trade him. You don't even need to be blown away, just need to get players that are coming back that are worth more than what we would pay him next year.

When should we have traded him and for what? Do you have any confirmed deals that we turned down?

[GoldGlove21]

I think trading Guthrie makes sense for multiple reasons. First, he has the remainder of this season and next season under team control. We have seen that a guaranteed second year has increased the return on players moved via trade.

Second, the Orioles are not likely to compete for a playoff spot this year or next.

Third, in order for Guthrie to extend here is going ask for $8M-$12M a year and he is likely to get it over a three year span. I think Guthrie easily gets 3/$27M on the open market even at his age.

The return is the most important part of dealing Guthrie. It is not about how important he is to the Orioles. It is not about how much his fellow team members like him. It is about value and value is a two way street. The people saying we should entertain dealing Guthrie for relief pitching are foolish. You likely look at two packages for a guy like Guts. You either look for one top notch prospect or multiple lower level prospects with upside. We are talking about the Bedard trade verses the Tejada trade, but on a much smaller scale.

If I am considering dealing Guthrie I want the best package no matter what positions are being offered. That is just my opinion, but Guthrie might be one of the games most overlooked players based on recent performance.