Do we have enough to get Joey Votto?

[Lucky Jim]

He's no Pujols. He's an all-star, but you can find players to put up good numbers at 1B much easier than you can find those numbers at SS. It's a positional bias that has yet to be accounted for with statistics.

You'll have to explain how the positional adjustment fails to account for this.

Then you'll need to identify what kind of "good numbers" you expect from Machado.

[allstar1579]

You'll have to explain how the positional adjustment fails to account for this.

Then you'll need to identify what kind of "good numbers" you expect from Machado.

I mean, he's great, this isn't about not liking Votto, he's an all-star 1B, but he's not enough to carry a bad team to contention by himself, and it's easier to get close to his production out of a 1B/DH than it is out of another position. I expect Manny to hit around .280/25HR, which is more valuable than a 1B putting up the same numbers.

[RVAbird]

He's no Pujols. He's an all-star, but you can find players to put up good numbers at 1B much easier than you can find those numbers at SS. It's a positional bias that has yet to be accounted for with statistics.

The bold is not true at all. There is a steep positional adjustment built into WAR.

The average first baseman produces about 18 more runs offensively than does the average SS. Votto has provided ~60 runs offensively in each of the last two years, so Manny would have to provide about 40 to match him. In other words, he'd have to be a .300/.400/.500 or .290/.370/.550 type of hitter to provide the same value as Votto (assuming average defense).

I don't know if you feel safe projecting those numbers for Machado, but I don't. Do I think that's the type of hitter he could become? Sure. But I'd swap Machado for Votto in terms of talent easily.

[RVAbird]

I mean, he's great, this isn't about not liking Votto, he's an all-star 1B, but he's not enough to carry a bad team to contention by himself, and it's easier to get close to his production out of a 1B/DH than it is out of another position. I expect Manny to hit around .280/25HR, which is more valuable than a 1B putting up the same numbers.

For context, JJ Hardy is hitting .266 with 27 HRs and has been worth 3.8 WAR, or just over half that of Votto. Yes, Hardy has a lower walk rate than Machado probably will, but is also a better defender than Machado will be.

Last year, Hanley Ramirez hit .300 with 21 HRs and was worth 4.6 WAR. Alexei Ramirez hit .280 with 18 HRs and deserved a gold glove, but was worth 4.3 WAR.

Last year, no SS was as valuable as Votto has been in the last two years.

In 2009, the only shortstop who matched Votto was Hanley, who hit .342/.410/.543. So, that's the kind of production we're talking about.

[Lucky Jim]

I mean, he's great, this isn't about not liking Votto, he's an all-star 1B, but he's not enough to carry a bad team to contention by himself, and it's easier to get close to his production out of a 1B/DH than it is out of another position. I expect Manny to hit around .280/25HR, which is more valuable than a 1B putting up the same numbers.

It's your understanding that .280 and 25 HR is Votto's value? I see a guy with solid defense, at 28, who averages something like .320/.420/.550.

The bold is not true at all. There is a steep positional adjustment built into WAR.

The average first baseman produces about 18 more runs offensively than does the average SS. Votto has provided ~60 runs offensively in each of the last two years, so Manny would have to provide about 40 to match him. In other words, he'd have to be a .300/.400/.500 or .290/.370/.550 type of hitter to provide the same value as Votto (assuming average defense).

I don't know if you feel safe projecting those numbers for Machado, but I don't. Do I think that's the type of hitter he could become? Sure. But I'd swap Machado for Votto in terms of talent easily.

This. Too.

[lint06]

Votto doesn't seem keen on signing long term with the Reds. I guess my point is; why would he be more keen on signing long-term here?

"I don’t know as far as beyond three years. I think it’s a real unfair question to ask,” Votto said. “This is not me saying I don’t want to be here. But last year was a difficult year for me. This year was a better year for me. It’s really hard for me to think three years ahead, five years ahead, seven years ahead or 10 years ahead. When [Troy] Tulowitzki signed that 10-year contract [with the Rockies], I was blown away. I can’t imagine seeing myself 10 years from now saying I want to be here. It’s an overwhelming thing to ask a young person like myself and say ‘here’s a lot of money. Be happy with this over 10 years, deal with it.’”

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/12/04/joey-votto-in-no-rush-for-a-long-term-contract/

I don't know whether to laugh or cry. "Here's a lot of money?" That isn't a lot of money, that's truckloads, upon truckloads, of money. So, yeah, be happy, and deal with it.

[allstar1579]

The bold is not true at all. There is a steep positional adjustment built into WAR.

The average first baseman produces about 18 more runs offensively than does the average SS. Votto has provided ~60 runs offensively in each of the last two years, so Manny would have to provide about 40 to match him. In other words, he'd have to be a .300/.400/.500 or .290/.370/.550 type of hitter to provide the same value as Votto (assuming average defense).

I don't know if you feel safe projecting those numbers for Machado, but I don't. Do I think that's the type of hitter he could become? Sure. But I'd swap Machado for Votto in terms of talent easily.

You would swap a 28 year old about to make $17m/year for Machado with our team so far from competition? I don't see how that helps. To me it just gives us another player closer to having the freedom to leave for nothing because we can't compete his entire tenure.

[El Gordo]

I mean, he's great, this isn't about not liking Votto, he's an all-star 1B, but he's not enough to carry a bad team to contention by himself, and it's easier to get close to his production out of a 1B/DH than it is out of another position. I expect Manny to hit around .280/25HR, which is more valuable than a 1B putting up the same numbers.

No player is. ARoid at Texas.

[allstar1579]

For context, JJ Hardy is hitting .266 with 27 HRs and has been worth 3.8 WAR, or just over half that of Votto. Yes, Hardy has a lower walk rate than Machado probably will, but is also a better defender than Machado will be.

Last year, Hanley Ramirez hit .300 with 21 HRs and was worth 4.6 WAR. Alexei Ramirez hit .280 with 18 HRs and deserved a gold glove, but was worth 4.3 WAR.

Last year, no SS was as valuable as Votto has been in the last two years.

In 2009, the only shortstop who matched Votto was Hanley, who hit .342/.410/.543. So, that's the kind of production we're talking about.

Hence why I roll my eyes when people rely so much on WAR. As someone that ties into scouting as much as you do I'm surprised to see you saying some of this. You are saying it's no problem at all to get that kind of production out of a SS? Do you see the problem with this? You giving me those WAR is exactly what I mean, you KNOW those players are worth more than that, but because some statistic tells you this is their value you just take that and say ok??

Too much reliance on statistics. Statistics didn't win Billy Beane anything. They got Paul DePodesta fired.

[allstar1579]

I don't know whether to laugh or cry. "Here's a lot of money?" That isn't a lot of money, that's truckloads, upon truckloads, of money. So, yeah, be happy, and deal with it.

That's actually exactly why we shouldn't trade for him. He wouldn't be happy here. He said in that article that he has no interest in a long term deal because he doesn't know that he'd be happy then. He wants to win, he's going to ride out til FA and he's going to sign with the Yankees or Red Sox or whoever is closest to buying a WS at the time, put me on record for that right now.

[JTrea81]

Oh, well we aren't..So I guess that ends this thread.

You may not want them to be, but they clearly are with the moves they've made.

[JTrea81]

BTW, if they can spend the money, I have to think Tampa is the clubhouse leader to get Votto.

They can't, so that would end that thought.

San Francisco is the first team that comes to mind.

The Jays had talks about Votto for Bautista, so they actually seem like the obvious leader considering the talent they have to deal.

The Nationals could be another...

[Sports Guy]

You may not want them to be, but they clearly are with the moves they've made.

Buck may want them to be but a 65 win team isn't in win now mode...unless you are totally unrealistic.

[Orioles0615]

Rumors have it

Bedard for votto and josh hamilton

[Sports Guy]

Let's say you are willing to go after Votto and you are willing to put Britton and Machado on the table.

It would be tough for anyone to beat that offer.

But, putting that offer aside for a moment, Votto is only signed for 2 more years and he is signed for 9.5M next year and 17M the following year.

If you were to trade for him, you have to get him to sign a 5-6 year extension OR rip up his current contract and give him a 7-8 year deal along the lines of what AGon got.

The problem with that is, you could probably just get Fielder for another 20-50 million for the same time period and keep Machado and Britton.

Now, Votto is a much better player than Fielder but still, are you willing to say that Votto is that much better than Fielder that you are giving up Britton and Machado?