Do we have enough to get Joey Votto?

[24fps]

This discussion shouldn't even be happening (not that y'all aren't free to have it). You can't trade the farm for a 1B who, in the best case, will need 120 million to re-sign. First, it doesn't make sense to trade our best young players at this stage of team building. Second, why on earth would we do that when we could theoretically sign a comparably valued player for roughly the same amount without giving up our best young talent?

This whole conversation just makes no sense to me.

It makes just as much sense as it did last year, and the year before and the year before...

Fielder, Teixiera, AGon, the names change, but the game's the same.

Welcome to your 2011-2012 Orioles off season on the Orioles Hangout.

[scOtt]

It makes just as much sense as it did last year, and the year before and the year before...

Fielder, Teixiera, AGon, the names change, but the game's the same.

Welcome to your 2011-2012 Orioles off season on the Orioles Hangout.

The offseason starts early around Balmer. September 18th or 19th. :rofl:

Wait! That's not funny!

[Orioles0615]

I know Theo is a good GM, but getting CIN and TEX to share Bedard for Hamilton and Votto.............

Wasn't that one of the rumors when the Orioles were looking to trade Bedard? This was meant to be a joke comment. Fail joke by me then. lol

[LookinUp]

It makes just as much sense as it did last year, and the year before and the year before...

Fielder, Teixiera, AGon, the names change, but the game's the same.

Welcome to your 2011-2012 Orioles off season on the Orioles Hangout.

If we're having a conversation about 1b's, it makes better sense to talk about a guy like Morneau or Alonso.

Personally, I have huge doubts that the Reds would trade Votto for anything less than a King's ransom. Alonso could be had in the right deal (IMO) and that's worth discussing. It goes to reason that the Twins would trade Morneau and just keep Cuddyer and Kubel. I have no idea if our new leadership would make that financial committment. Certainly a huge risk/reward for the O's.

[24fps]

If we're having a conversation about 1b's, it makes better sense to talk about a guy like Morneau or Alonso.

Personally, I have huge doubts that the Reds would trade Votto for anything less than a King's ransom. Alonso could be had in the right deal (IMO) and that's worth discussing. It goes to reason that the Twins would trade Morneau and just keep Cuddyer and Kubel. I have no idea if our new leadership would make that financial committment. Certainly a huge risk/reward for the O's.

Given BRob's recent experience with concussions, I'm more than a little leery of Morneau and I wouldn't be surprised if PA and the others were as well. If we actually are looking for a first baseman for next year, I agree that Alonso should definitely be in the discussion, however, I suspect we'll see Reynolds there next year making the point moot. My general feeling is that we won't see any serious investment in the team until the starting pitching looks at least minimally reliable.

My comment on your previous post was directed at the faint drumbeat we all hear in the distance, the one that will only get louder as time goes on. Votto, Votto, Votto....premium talent, premium talent...etc., etc., etc.

[Sports Guy]

Go get Logan Morrison.

He should be way up the priority list this offseason...maybe even #1 if Darvish isn't a thought in their minds.

[LookinUp]

Given BRob's recent experience with concussions, I'm more than a little leery of Morneau and I wouldn't be surprised if PA and the others were as well. If we actually are looking for a first baseman for next year, I agree that Alonso should definitely be in the discussion, however, I suspect we'll see Reynolds there next year making the point moot. My general feeling is that we won't see any serious investment in the team until the starting pitching looks at least minimally reliable.

My comment on your previous post was directed at the faint drumbeat we all hear in the distance, the one that will only get louder as time goes on. Votto, Votto, Votto....premium talent, premium talent...etc., etc., etc.

Of course Morneau is a huge risk. That's the only reason he'd be available. There's nothing in his numbers to suggest he's back to normal either. It honestly makes no sense unless they take back (or pay) some salary and we don't give up much. On the other hand, if he does recover the boom potential is immense. With only 2 years left on his contract, I could see a crazy owner (not PA) taking a chance on striking gold.

Alonso makes much better sense, but his trade price would be much higher I suspect. I doubt they're interested in Guthrie, so you're looking at a guy like Arrieta having to go back in a trade.

[Sports Guy]

Of course Morneau is a huge risk. That's the only reason he'd be available. There's nothing in his numbers to suggest he's back to normal either. It honestly makes no sense unless they take back (or pay) some salary and we don't give up much. On the other hand, if he does recover the boom potential is immense. With only 2 years left on his contract, I could see a crazy owner (not PA) taking a chance on striking gold.

Alonso makes much better sense, but his trade price would be much higher I suspect. I doubt they're interested in Guthrie, so you're looking at a guy like Arrieta having to go back in a trade.

Actually, a guy like Guthrie is what they have said they want.

I would really like to get Benson back from the Twins.

[LookinUp]

Go get Logan Morrison.

He should be way up the priority list this offseason...maybe even #1 if Darvish isn't a thought in their minds.

Do we match up with the Marlins? I honestly have a hard time seeing how we match up with much of anyone unless they want Guthrie or we build something around Jones (or even Markakis). I don't see us trading any young pitching unless Buck is ready to give the hook to someone.

Actually, a guy like Guthrie is what they have said they want.

If they still want Guthrie, I could see it happening. It would take more than Guthrie, IMO, but we may match up in other ways too (Reimold, bullpen help).

[Sports Guy]

Do we match up with the Marlins? I honestly have a hard time seeing how we match up with much of anyone unless they want Guthrie or we build something around Jones (or even Markakis). I don't see us trading any young pitching unless Buck is ready to give the hook to someone.

You bring in another team then.

BTW, the Marlins are looking to spend money this offseason.

They are moving into their stadium in 2012 and have decided that they want to spend now.

[TGO]

It makes just as much sense as it did last year, and the year before and the year before...

Fielder, Teixiera, AGon, the names change, but the game's the same.

Welcome to your 2011-2012 Orioles off season on the Orioles Hangout.

Right, when Fielder and Pujols sign elsewhere the drumbeat will become "we have to trade for Joey Votto." After that, maybe it will be "Detroit is listening to offers on Miguel Cabrera again" (you forgot Cabrera in your list btw).

[DrungoHazewood]

Maybe trading all of the decent prospects on the farm for Votto would be a good idea. Just listen to this before you laugh...

1) Trading everything but the kitchen sink for Votto would leave the O's with a player development system similar to an expansion team's.

2) Most expansion teams went from not existing to being a solid team more quickly than the O's current run of futility.

3) So becoming essentially an expansion team devoid of all talent besides Votto actually moves up the Orioles' contention timeline.

Thoughts?

[Dr. FLK]

Maybe trading all of the decent prospects on the farm for Votto would be a good idea. Just listen to this before you laugh...

1) Trading everything but the kitchen sink for Votto would leave the O's with a player development system similar to an expansion team's.

2) Most expansion teams went from not existing to being a solid team more quickly than the O's current run of futility.

3) So becoming essentially an expansion team devoid of all talent besides Votto actually moves up the Orioles' contention timeline.

Thoughts?

To be fair, we aren't all that far away from being a "team devoid of all talent."

[RVAbird]

Was addressed at the whole convo. Votto's 5% outcome is, of course, not an indicator for Machado. But it is most certainly a reminder of the variance involved in projecting prospects. And I think you'd be hard pressed to find many evaluators who viewed Votto as a better prospect at age 19 then they view Machado.

I'd trade Machado for Votto in a general sense. But given where Baltimore is as an organization it isn't a trade that would make much sense. I highly doubt Votto would stay in Baltimore and the Orioles aren't competing in 2012, for sure. I don't move Machado for a chance at the playoffs in 2013 if other things break right.

I'd move Machado for Votto if he were signed to 4 or more years -- but that would require much more than just Machado.

I understand your value/talent appraisal -- was just surprised that between two brains like yours and RVA's that no one bothered to actually write it out long hand.

I blame the 85 hr work week and the working weekend. I should have been clearer, but I'd wager that both RVA and I would agree w/ pretty much everything you write.

I think, perhaps, that we got blinded by the positional adjustment argument and the characterization of of Votto as "good" and Machado as a potential "superstar." Obviously, the latter is true, but it's a question of calculating potential. The former is way off.

What LJ said. Was really just enticed by the positional adjustment argument.

[RVAbird]

Maybe trading all of the decent prospects on the farm for Votto would be a good idea. Just listen to this before you laugh...

1) Trading everything but the kitchen sink for Votto would leave the O's with a player development system similar to an expansion team's.

2) Most expansion teams went from not existing to being a solid team more quickly than the O's current run of futility.

3) So becoming essentially an expansion team devoid of all talent besides Votto actually moves up the Orioles' contention timeline.

Thoughts?

I laughed.

It's like moving to zero from a negative. I'd only consider it if CIN would take on the development staff as a salary dump.